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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,181 papers · 148 categories

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16334965 · May 202619922001200920182026
48 results for missing counterfactuals

CVIB uses information theory to learn counterfactuals from MNAR data without RCTs.

problem Debiasing learning from missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data in recommendation systems.
method CVIB, a variational information bottleneck, separates task-aware mutual information into factual and counterfactual parts.
result CVIB significantly enhances both shallow and deep models in recommendation systems.

The paper explores how missing data problems are related to causal inference.

problem Missing data in experiments makes causal inference difficult.
method The paper reinterprets missing data as a form of causal inference by considering counterfactual variables.
result Identification assumptions in missing data can be encoded using graphical models of counterfactual and observed variables.

Paper tackles policy optimization from observational data, overcoming missing counterfactuals and selection bias.

problem Optimizing policies from observational data in the absence of controlled experiments.
method Theoretical bounds on estimation errors of counterfactuals, domain adversarial neural networks.
result Effective domain adversarial training for choosing optimal policies.

Paper introduces a method to evaluate abstaining classifiers by considering missing predictions as counterfactuals.

problem Lack of a principled approach to evaluate and compare abstaining classifiers, especially when missing predictions are important.
method Develops a novel approach to treat abstentions as missing data, defining counterfactual scores and using causal inference methods to estimate them.
result Shows that under certain conditions, counterfactual scores can be identified and estimated efficiently, improving evaluation of abstaining classifiers.

FOCUS method forecasts counterfactuals in panel data with time series dynamics.

problem Forecasting unobserved potential outcomes in causal inference with missing entries and latent factors.
method FOCUS extends matrix completion methods by leveraging time series dynamics of latent factors.
result FOCUS method outperforms existing benchmarks in predicting future counterfactuals.

Kernel ridge regression for causal inference with missing data.

problem Estimating treatment effects with missing data in selected samples.
method Kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates for continuous treatment, root-n consistency for discrete treatment.

Counterfactual diagnosis improves medical accuracy and safety.

problem Existing diagnostic algorithms struggle with distinguishing correlation from causation.
method Reformulated diagnosis as a counterfactual inference task and derived new counterfactual diagnostic algorithms.
result Counterfactual diagnostic algorithms significantly improve accuracy and safety compared to standard Bayesian algorithms.

AI techniques explain synthetic tabular data weaknesses.

problem Challenges in evaluating synthetic tabular data quality.
method Apply explainable AI to a binary detection classifier.
result Reveals inconsistencies, unrealistic dependencies, or missing patterns in synthetic data.

AWNN improves matrix completion by adaptively weighting nearest neighbors.

problem Matrix completion with optimal nearest neighbor weights and radii selection.
method Adaptively weighted nearest neighbor method for matrix completion.
result Theoretical guarantees and synthetic experiments support the effectiveness of AWNN.

Estimates missing distributions using nearest neighbors with kernel methods.

problem Missing data and unobserved confounding in multivariate distributions.
method Distributional matrix completion framework with kernel nearest neighbors.
result Consistent recovery of underlying distributions with missing data.

A framework generates diverse counterfactual explanations for machine learning models.

problem Creating understandable explanations for machine learning predictions.
method Framework based on determinantal point processes for generating and evaluating diverse counterfactuals.
result Framework generates diverse counterfactuals that approximate local decision boundaries better than prior approaches.

Develops a method for generating understandable and attainable counterfactual explanations for tabular data.

problem Ensuring counterfactual explanations are both interpretable and attainable for individuals.
method Combines quality measures with manifold learning techniques to generate counterfactuals that are both proximate and connected to regions of high data density.
result Proposes a framework (C-CHVAE) for generating attainable counterfactuals that are also interpretable.

DeDUCE efficiently generates realistic counterfactuals for image classifiers.

problem Generating accurate counterfactual explanations for large image classifiers.
method Developed a new algorithm using spectral normalization to efficiently generate counterfactuals.
result Our algorithm consistently produces counterfactuals closer to the original inputs with comparable realism.

We establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using dynamic optimal transport.

problem Addressing the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data.
method Establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings, with tools from dynamic optimal transport.
result Characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map, ensuring consistent inference.

A new framework for robust and coherent counterfactual transports.

problem Estimating joint distributions over counterfactual outcomes in personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment.
method Counterfactual cocycles that use algebraic structure to provide coherence and identifiability guarantees, bridging the gap between bijective SCMs and OT methods.
result Counterfactual cocycles provide state-of-the-art performance and noise-robustness across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world study.

New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.

problem Using traditional 'retrospective' counterfactuals in treatment choice leads to counterintuitive results.
method Introduces 'counterfactual treatment choice' for forward-looking counterfactuals.
result Mismatches between interventional and forward-looking counterfactuals can lead to counterintuitive results.

The paper analyzes counterfactual invariance and its relation to conditional independence.

problem Understanding the relationship between counterfactual invariance and conditional independence.
method Theoretical analysis of existing definitions, graphical implications, and mathematical proofs.
result Counterfactual invariance implies conditional independence, but not the other way around.

New framework improves counterfactual predictions using causal inference.

problem Challenges in predicting counterfactual outcomes with limited covariates and high-dimensional outcomes.
method Variational Bayesian causal inference framework for counterfactual generative modeling.
result Framework encourages disentangled exogenous noise and correct identification of causal effects.

Counterfactual data augmentations may not ensure OOD robustness if performed by a context-guessing machine.

problem Deep learning models lack out-of-distribution robustness due to reliance on spurious features.
method Theoretical analysis and demonstration of counterfactual data augmentations performed by a context-guessing machine.
result Counterfactual data augmentations by a context-guessing machine do not lead to robust OOD classifiers.

New method improves model reconstruction using counterfactuals and polytope theory.

problem Reconstructing models with minimal input changes and avoiding decision boundary shifts.
method Using polytope theory to derive loss functions that treat counterfactuals differently from ordinary instances.
result Improves fidelity between target and surrogate model predictions on multiple datasets.

New method debiases counterfactual distributions using observational data.

problem Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions without relying on observational data.
method Flow-matching approach to learn counterfactual distributions from observational data.
result Deconfounding flows outperform existing debiased counterfactual distribution estimators.

Proposes a method to generate counterfactuals for ensemble models using entropic risk measures.

problem Finding a single counterfactual explanation for an ensemble of models.
method Incorporates entropic risk measure into a constrained optimization to generate counterfactuals valid for an adjustable fraction of models.
result Entropic risk measure allows generation of counterfactuals valid for all models in the ensemble under a limiting case.

We define and compute plausible counterfactual explanations using density constraints.

problem Efficiently compute plausible counterfactual explanations for machine learning models.
method Propose and study a formal definition of plausible counterfactual explanations, use density estimators, and introduce convex density constraints.
result Convex density constraints ensure plausible and feasible counterfactual explanations.

New method warns of counterfactual non-identifiability in DSCMs.

problem Counterfactual inference from observational data is non-identifiable even without unobserved confounding.
method Prove counterfactual identifiability for monotonic generation mechanisms, provide impossibility result for general mechanisms, propose method for estimating worst-case errors.
result Non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in absence of unobserved confounding.

Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.

problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.

The paper introduces metrics and methods to improve fairness in text classification models.

problem Counterfactual fairness issues in text classifiers, like predicting toxicity based on sensitive attributes.
method Developed a metric (CTF) and three approaches (blindness, counterfactual augmentation, CLP) to optimize counterfactual fairness during training.
result Blindness and CLP methods improve counterfactual fairness without harming classifier performance.

This study analyzes counterfactual explanations for student success models.

problem Improving trust in machine learning models for student success prediction.
method Comparison of counterfactual generation methods (WhatIf, Multi-Objective, Nearest Instance) for student success prediction models.
result WhatIf Counterfactual Explanations are more effective for student success prediction models.

Framework integrates Markov and causal models for accurate counterfactual inference.

problem Lack of counterfactual inference in Markov models and identification in causal models.
method Defines structural causal models in terms of Markov process parameters and equilibrium dynamics, enabling consistent counterfactual inference.
result Proposed framework alleviates identifiability issues and improves accuracy of counterfactual inference.

The paper connects counterfactual fairness to robust prediction and group fairness using causal context.

problem The challenge of ensuring fairness in AI systems when counterfactuals cannot be directly observed.
method Using causal context to bridge counterfactual fairness, robust prediction, and group fairness.
result Counterfactual fairness is equivalent to group fairness metrics in specific contexts.

ARFs generate plausible counterfactuals for models, improving model understanding.

problem Creating realistic counterfactuals for model analysis.
method Adversarial Random Forests (ARFs) for generating plausible counterfactuals.
result ARFs efficiently generate plausible counterfactuals in a model-agnostic way.

EXOC framework uses auxiliary variables for counterfactual fairness in machine learning.

problem Balancing fairness and predictive accuracy in models with sensitive attributes.
method EXOC framework uses auxiliary variables to define an auxiliary node and a control node for counterfactual fairness.
result EXOC framework outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in achieving counterfactual fairness.

This paper introduces collective counterfactual explanations for groups of instances in classification models.

problem Understanding how classification models make decisions for groups of instances.
method Novel Mathematical Optimization models to find collective counterfactual explanations that minimize total perturbation cost.
result Detects critical features for entire dataset classification and handles outliers.