SConU improves uncertainty prediction for large models by testing for outliers and reducing miscoverage.
problem Real-world deployment of large language models requires reliable guarantees of task-specific metrics.
method SConU implements significance tests to identify and exclude outliers that violate exchangeability assumptions.
result SConU reduces miscoverage rates and enhances prediction efficiency in high-stakes tasks.
ECI improves time series prediction uncertainty quantification by smoothing miscoverage error.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for time series prediction due to temporal dependence and distribution shift.
method Error-quantified Conformal Inference (ECI) by smoothing quantile loss function and introducing adaptive feedback scale.
result ECI achieves valid miscoverage control and tighter prediction sets than existing methods.
Develops methods to adjust prediction set coverage based on post-selection analysis.
problem Adjusting prediction set coverage after initial analysis to better fit specific needs.
method Post-selection conformal inference to adjust miscoverage levels.
result Allows for trade-off between coverage and prediction set quality.
Exact distribution of split conformal prediction coverage found.
problem Determining the reliability of prediction sets in batch mode.
method Analysis of exchangeable data to find universal distribution of empirical coverage.
result Exact distribution of empirical coverage is universal and determined by nominal miscoverage level and calibration sample size.
Improved conformal prediction for better conditional coverage of classifier predictions.
problem Achieving exact conditional coverage in finite samples for prediction sets.
method Developed a variant of conformal prediction targeting coverage conditional on confidence and trust score.
result Empirically improved conditional coverage properties compared to standard conformal prediction.
Improves conditional coverage of regression models using conformal prediction.
problem Lack of conditional coverage guarantees in conformal prediction methods.
method Proposes a novel algorithm to train a regression function to improve conditional coverage after split conformal prediction.
result Establishes an upper bound for miscoverage gap and proposes an end-to-end algorithm to control it.
New method prevents invalid inference after causal discovery.
problem Invalid inference after causal discovery.
method Developed tools for valid post-causal-discovery inference.
result Our method provides reliable coverage while achieving more accurate causal discovery.
TA-CQR predicts regression intervals with exact coverage, splitting miscoverage between endpoints.
problem Predicting regression intervals with exact coverage under reporting constraints.
method TA-CQR uses tail allocation to parameterize the oracle, estimating the allocation by searching quantile cores and applying nonnegative additive split-conformal calibration.
result TA-CQR achieves exact finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, with theoretical guarantees on calibration and length.
Develops a new method for online conformal prediction without manual tuning.
problem Achieving long-run 1−α coverage for arbitrary data streams in an informative manner. method Linearized regret theory and universal portfolio algorithms.
result Strong finite-time bounds on miscoverage for UP-OCP, outperforming prior methods.
New bounds on efficiency for conformalized regression methods.
problem Efficiency of conformal prediction in regression models.
method Non-asymptotic bounds on prediction set length for conformalized quantile and median regression.
result Identifies phase transitions in convergence rates across different regimes of miscoverage level.
New framework calibrates decision robustness using inverse conformal risk control.
problem Inadequate robustness levels in decision-making due to ad hoc choices.
method Constructs valid estimators to trace miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier.
result Provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on robustness levels.
AEnbMIMOCQR generates robust multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.
problem Generating reliable multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.
method Adaptive ensemble batch multi-input multi-output conformalized quantile regression (AEnbMIMOCQR) based on conformal prediction principles.
result AEnbMIMOCQR provides close to exact coverage and robustness to distribution shifts.
Proposes a new method to unlearn from specific data points in conformal predictors.
problem Challenges of existing unlearning methods in conformal predictors.
method Formalizes conformal unlearning, introduces practical metrics, and presents an optimization algorithm.
result Demonstrates effective removal of targeted information while preserving utility.
Backward Conformal Prediction offers flexible control over prediction set sizes while ensuring coverage guarantees.
problem Providing reliable prediction sets with controlled sizes in applications like medical diagnosis.
method Defines a rule that constrains prediction set sizes based on observed data, adapting coverage levels.
result Maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.
New risk control method for non-monotonic losses in complex parameters.
problem Controlling risk for non-monotonic losses with multidimensional parameters.
method Stability-based guarantees for generic algorithms applied to non-monotonic losses.
result Guarantees depend on algorithm stability, with looser guarantees for unstable algorithms.
An online framework optimizes efficiency in conformal prediction with a target miscoverage rate.
problem Achieving coverage and minimizing interval length in a sequential, online setting.
method Optimizes efficiency by directly optimizing the average length of intervals while maintaining coverage.
result Shows a gap between optimal performance for exchangeable and arbitrary sequences, and provides a matching algorithm for the Pareto-optimal settings.
DRO-NPE improves neural posterior estimation by reducing overconfidence and overfitting.
problem Overconfident and unreliable posteriors in simulation-based inference with limited simulation budgets.
method Distributionally robust approach using Wasserstein ambiguity set and KL-based metrics.
result Consistently improves coverage and calibration across benchmark tasks.
New methods improve cross-conformal prediction's prediction sets without sacrificing coverage guarantees.
problem Improving the width of prediction sets in cross-conformal prediction.
method Proposed new variants of existing methods based on recent results on more efficient combination of p-values.
result Smaller prediction sets achieved without compromising theoretical guarantees.
Adaptive conformal inference without data exchangeability assumptions.
problem Real-world scenarios often violate the data exchangeability assumption for conformal prediction.
method Parameter-free online convex optimization for adaptive conformal inference.
result Controls long-term miscoverage frequency at a nominal level empirically.
Paper proposes a hybrid RL algorithm that combines offline and online data without needing reward info.
problem How to efficiently use online data to improve RL policies using only offline data.
method A three-stage hybrid RL algorithm that uses reward-agnostic exploration and model-based offline RL.
result The hybrid RL algorithm outperforms both pure offline and pure online RL in sample complexity.
Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
problem Improving prediction intervals for non-exchangeable time-indexed datasets
method Spectral adaptive conformal prediction
result Improves on fixed spectral weighting while monitoring uncertainty changes
The paper proposes a method to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for correlated target variables.
problem Constructing well-calibrated prediction sets for correlated target variables.
method The method uses vine copulas to estimate the joint cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores and improves the asymptotic efficiency of the quantile estimate.
result The method guarantees asymptotically exact coverage and competitive efficiency on real-world regression problems.
A new method controls risk for set predictors using cross-validation.
problem Inefficient set predictors when data limited.
method Cross-validation conformal risk control (CV-CRC).
result CV-CRC offers theoretical guarantees and reduces set size.
New method for valid prediction intervals in counterfactual outcomes with runtime confounding.
problem Valid prediction intervals for counterfactual outcomes under runtime confounding.
method Debiased machine learning framework grounded in semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Prediction intervals achieve desired coverage rates with faster convergence compared to standard methods.
Proposes a method to create shorter, more accurate prediction intervals.
problem Challenges in achieving both conditional validity and interval efficiency in complex settings.
method Uses a conformal-style calibration method for neural network responses, adjusting to empirical PIT distribution.
result Demonstrates better conditional calibration and shorter intervals than existing methods.
ACP-UCB1 ranks arms based on upper-tail performance, improving stochastic bandit algorithms.
problem Stochastic bandit algorithms often favor arms with strong upper-tail performance, which is not well-addressed by classical mean-reward criteria.
method ACP-UCB1 combines an adaptive conformal estimate of the upper endpoint with a UCB-type optimism bonus.
result ACP-UCB1 achieves logarithmic upper-quantile regret with per-arm contribution \(O(
icefrac{\log n}{Δ_j^{\mathrm{ACP}}})\).
New metrics improve understanding of predictive system reliability.
problem Evaluating conditional coverage of predictive systems.
method Casting conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem, using excess risk of the target coverage (ERT) metrics.
result Modern classifiers provide higher statistical power for estimating conditional coverage.
A new method for online prediction uncertainty quantification in non-exchangeable panel data.
problem Challenges in quantifying predictive uncertainty for non-exchangeable panel data.
method Online conformal prediction framework for non-exchangeable panel data, using similarity weights and adaptive miscoverage levels.
result Improves coverage on worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation.
We tackle permutation in linear regression with a new inference framework.
problem Statistical investigation of permutation in linear regression models.
method Localization step followed by conditional Monte Carlo test and coefficient inference.
result Valid statistical inference procedures for permutation and regression coefficients.
Proposes online conformal prediction method with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
problem Online uncertainty quantification with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
method Formulates online conformal prediction as an adversarial bandit problem and uses regret minimization.
result Achieves long-run coverage guarantee with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
CAP algorithm controls FCR in online selective prediction.
problem Online predictive tasks with temporal multiplicity and FCR control.
method CAP framework with adaptive pick rule and calibration set construction.
result CAP achieves exact selection-conditional coverage guarantee and FCR control.
This paper identifies knot projections with reductivity two.
problem Determining knot projections with a specific reductivity level.
method Examined four types of reductivity (Seifert type splice, non-Seifert type splice, recursively, simultaneously) and their combinations.
result Identified all knot projections with reductivity two for the four definitions.
Completes reduction scheme in Lagrange-Poincaré category.
problem Lagrangian reduction by stages in the whole category.
method Analyzes Noether theorem, Hamiltonian reduction, geometric aspects.
result Affirmative answer to open question of Lagrangian reduction.
This paper classifies instantons with closed reductions and provides examples of non-closed reductions.
problem Understanding the geometry of toric Kähler instantons with and without closed reductions.
method Sharp geometric criteria and examples of instantons with different reduction types.
result Established geometric criteria for closed reductions and classified asymptotic geometries.
We consider locally conformal Kaehler geometry as an equivariant (homothetic) Kaehler geometry: a locally conformal Kaehler manifold is, up to equivalence, a pair (K,Γ) where K is a Kaehler manifold and Γa discrete Lie group of biholomorphic homotheties acting freely and properly discontinuously. We define a new invari…
In this paper we describe Routhian reduction as a special case of standard symplectic reduction, also called Marsden-Weinstein reduction. We use this correspondence to present a generalization of Routhian reduction for quasi-invariant Lagrangians, i.e. Lagrangians that are invariant up to a total time derivative. We sh…
Two reduction schemes for symplectic manifolds are shown equivalent.
problem Reduction of Hamiltonian systems on exact symplectic manifolds.
method Modified Marsden-Meyer-Weinstein reduction theorem for exact symplectic manifolds and contact manifolds.
result Reduction schemes are equivalent for exact symplectic manifolds and energy hypersurfaces.
Study extends Kobayashi's method to non-reductive subgroups for homogeneous spaces.
problem Existence of compact Clifford-Klein forms in homogeneous spaces.
method Extend Kobayashi's method to non-reductive subgroups and compare Cartan projections and non-compact dimensions.
result Examples of homogeneous spaces without compact Clifford-Klein forms.
The purpose of this paper is to generalize the regular Optimal Reduction Theorem to general proper Dirac actions, formulated both in terms of point and orbit reduction. A comparison to general standard singular Dirac reduction is given emphasizing the desingularization role played by optimal reduction.
We show that the contact reduction can be specialized to Sasakian manifolds. We link this Sasakian reduction to Kähler reduction by considering the Kähler cone over a Sasakian manifold. We present examples of Sasakian manifolds obtained by S1 reduction of standard Sasakian spheres.
Study characterizes naturally reductive metrics on homogeneous manifolds.
problem Characterizing naturally reductive (α1,α2) metrics on homogeneous manifolds. method Characterization through local f-products and equivalence of properties. result Explicit flag curvature formula for naturally reductive metrics.
Abstract: Generalized reduction methods for symmetries in graded geometry.
problem Generalized reduction of symmetries in graded geometry.
method Graded symplectic reduction for Courant, Dirac, and generalized complex structures.
result Systematic recovery of reduction schemes for exact cases.
In this note we give conditions which ensure the reduction of a symplectic connection in the process of a Marsden-Weinstein reduction and of the reduction of a presymplectic manifold.
This work introduces a unified approach to the reduction of Poisson manifolds using their description by graded symplectic manifolds. This yields a generalization of the classical Poisson reduction by distributions (Marsden-Ratiu reduction). Further it allows one to construct actions of strict Lie 2-groups and to descr…
This paper extends symplectic reduction to cosymplectic groupoids and explores their properties.
problem Cosymplectic groupoids and their reductions.
method Analogous to symplectic reduction, the authors extend the Marsden-Weinstein-Meyer reduction to cosymplectic groupoids.
result Integration commutes with reduction for algebroids associated with cosymplectic groupoids.
The reduction of nonholonomic systems is formulated in terms of Dirac reduction. An optimal reduction method for a class of nonholonomic systems is formulated. Several examples are studied in detail.
Let EG be a stable principal G--bundle over a compact connected Kaehler manifold, where G is a connected reductive linear algebraic group defined over the complex numbers. Let H⊂G be a complex reductive subgroup which is not necessarily connected, and let EH⊂EG be a holomorphic reduction of s…
A new method for classifying naturally reductive spaces is presented. This method relies on the structure theory of naturally reductive spaces developed in \cite{Storm2018a} and the new construction of naturally reductive spaces in \cite{Storm2018}. We obtain the classification of all naturally reductive spaces in dime…