Queue imbalance predicts mid-price movement direction.
problem Predicting mid-price movement direction in limit order books.
method Logistic regression and local logistic regression fits between queue imbalance and mid-price movement direction.
result Queue imbalance provides significant predictive power for mid-price movement direction.
Paper proposes new features and deep learning models for mid-price prediction.
problem Challenging task of predicting mid-price movement based on LOB data.
method Developed new handcrafted features and deep learning models.
result Deep learning models can predict mid-price movement and time to change.
Paper uses ML to predict stock price movements from order book data.
problem Forecasting stock price movements in financial markets.
method Combines handcrafted and ML features for three classifiers, evaluated on two setups.
result Machine Learning shows promise for this task, suggesting future research.
Study predicts stock mid-prices using machine learning with selected features.
problem Predicting mid-price movements in stock markets.
method Wrapper feature selection using entropy, LMS, LDA, and adaptive logistic regression.
result Best performance achieved with a small set of advanced features.
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements with 78% accuracy.
problem Predicting price formation in cryptocurrency markets with high volatility and illiquidity.
method Applied deep learning to predict mid-price changes on live tick-level cryptocurrency data.
result Achieved 78% accuracy in predicting mid-price movement of Bitcoin vs USD.
Tensor-based methods improve mid-price prediction in high-frequency financial data.
problem Predicting price changes in high-frequency financial data.
method Multilinear tensor-based learning algorithms for mid-price prediction.
result Tensor-based models outperform vector-based approaches in mid-price prediction.
Bayesian model predicts mid-price dynamics in financial markets.
problem Challenges in predicting financial markets using traditional methods.
method Bayesian bilinear neural network with temporal attention.
result Feasibility and advantages of Bayesian deep-learning approach.
Deep learning models predict price movements using stationary features from limit order books.
problem Challenges in applying deep learning to financial data due to its non-stationary nature.
method Proposed a method to create stationary features allowing DL models to be effectively applied.
result A combined model outperforms individual LSTM and CNN models in predicting price movements.
This work's purpose is to understand the dynamics of limit order books in order-driven markets. We try to illustrate a dynamical trading mechanism attached to the microstructure of limit order markets. We capture the iterative nature of trading processes, which is critical in the dynamics of bid-ask pairs and the switc…
ALPE improves mid-price forecasting in HFT with real-time data.
problem Real-time mid-price forecasting in high-frequency trading.
method Adaptive Learning Policy Engine (ALPE) using RL and adaptive epsilon decay.
result ALPE outperforms other models in mid-price forecasting.
This paper presents a method to estimate mid-prices of European corporate bonds using real-time dealer information.
problem Estimating mid-prices in illiquid markets where direct market prices are not available.
method Bayesian approach using particle filtering and sequential Monte Carlo.
result A new method for real-time mid-price estimation of corporate bonds.
Study of Hawkes processes in limit order books for price volatility analysis.
problem Understanding price volatility in limit order books.
method Construct and analyze general compound Hawkes processes.
result Established Law of Large Numbers and Functional Central Limit Theorems for specific variations.
Paper provides a benchmark dataset for mid-price forecasting in limit order book data.
problem Forecasting mid-price in high-frequency financial markets.
method Extracted and normalized time series data from NASDAQ Nordic stocks.
result Dataset of ~4,000,000 time series samples for 5 stocks.
Paper examines GCHP for mid-price prediction in financial data.
problem Predicting mid-price in financial data with stochastic models.
method General Compound Hawkes Process (GCHP) for mid-price prediction.
result GCHP models show potential for predicting mid-price direction and volatility.
Study examines new financial metrics and their implications for trading and risk management.
problem Liquidity and price dynamics in financial markets.
method High-frequency trading data, ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, normal inverse Gaussian distribution, option pricing model, Rachev ratio.
result New financial metrics (TMOBBAS, GMP) have heavy-tailed distributions and significant deviations from normality.
Proposes a stochastic model for limit order book dynamics.
problem Captures the dynamics of limit order books in financial markets.
method Develops a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) model with multiplicative noise.
result Shows efficient estimation and computation methods for the model.
The paper models battery valuation in intraday electricity markets, incorporating liquidity costs.
problem Valuing batteries in intraday electricity markets considering liquidity costs.
method Stochastic model for mid-prices combined with a deterministic model for liquidity costs, using dynamic programming for optimization.
result Liquidity costs significantly impact battery valuation, especially with multiple batteries.
HLOB predicts mid-price changes in L.O.Bs using deep learning.
problem Forecasting mid-price changes in Limit Order Books.
method HLOB uses a deep learning model with an Information Filtering Network and Homological Convolutional Neural Networks.
result HLOB outperforms state-of-the-art models in real-world datasets.
Study applies Hawkes volatility to mid-price process for real-time risk management.
problem Lack of studies on Hawkes volatility for tick-level price dynamics.
method Derived variance formula for unmarked and marked Hawkes models, applied to mid-price process.
result Reliable results and high predictive power of intraday Hawkes volatility.
Study shows how order flow at multiple price levels affects stock prices.
problem Understanding how order flow at different price levels influences stock prices.
method Fit a linear relationship between multi-level order-flow imbalance (MLOFI) and mid-price changes using high-quality data.
result The inclusion of more price levels in MLOFI improves the fit with mid-price changes.
We derive a continuous time model for the joint evolution of the mid price and the bid-ask spread from a multiscale analysis of the whole limit order book (LOB) dynamics. We model the LOB as a multiclass queueing system and perform our asymptotic analysis using stylized features observed empirically. We argue that in t…
Maker-taker fees can prevent algorithmic cooperation in market making, but not always.
problem Unexpected cooperation among independent algorithms in market making.
method Modeling market making as a repeated game, experimental analysis of transaction costs and rebates.
result Maker-taker fee models can destabilize cooperation, but not always with a specific relationship between costs and rebates.
Real-time detection of spoofing in cryptocurrency exchanges using neural networks.
problem Detecting and mitigating spoofing activity in limit order books.
method Novel order flow variables based on multi-scale Hawkes processes and a probabilistic market manipulation gain model.
result 31% of large orders could spoof the market, highlighting the importance of posting distance in price formation.
Analyzes transaction costs for corporate bonds using a new analytical methodology.
problem Challenges in assessing the quality of corporate bond executions via Transaction Cost Analysis.
method Analyzes TRACE Enhanced dataset to estimate initiator, bid-ask spread, and mid-price dynamics; applies regularized regression models and transient impact models.
result Identifies price impact asymmetry between customer-buy and consumer-sell orders.
Unified model for market dynamics, linking price and order flow.
problem Modeling market dynamics and order flow in a unified framework.
method Markovian market model driven by a hidden Brownian efficient price, signal-driven and queue-reactive models.
result Stability of mid-price around efficient price at macroscopic scale, behavior as diffusion.
The paper introduces a new price model based on entropy that better fits high-frequency market data.
problem Understanding fair prices in high-frequency markets with bid-ask imbalance.
method A parametrized family of prices derived from the Maximum Entropy Principle, minimizing bias given volume imbalance.
result The model can generate higher kurtosis and heavy-tailed distributions compared to standard models.
A small investor provides liquidity at the best bid and ask prices of a limit order market. For small spreads and frequent orders of other market participants, we explicitly determine the investor's optimal policy and welfare. In doing so, we allow for general dynamics of the mid price, the spread, and the order flow, …
Deep learning predicts stock price changes in Limit Order Books.
problem Predicting high-frequency Limit Order Book mid-price changes.
method Cutting-edge deep learning methodologies applied to NASDAQ stocks.
result Deep learning methods' effectiveness varies by stock microstructure.
Wearable smart suit tracks infant movements with high accuracy.
problem Early detection of atypical motor development in infants.
method Developed a multi-sensor smart suit for data collection, trained a deep CNN algorithm for automatic posture and movement classification.
result Setup achieves human equivalent accuracy in infant posture and movement classification.
Paper reduces movement primitive dimensionality in parameter space.
problem High dimensionality of movement primitives makes policy optimization expensive.
method Investigates dimensionality reduction in parameter space, identifying principal movements.
result Dimensionality reduction in parameter space is more effective than in configuration space.
A Deep Q-Learning framework tackles market-making by incorporating closing auctions.
problem Managing end-of-day risk in market-making models.
method Developed a Deep Q-Learning framework that anticipates closing auctions and continuously refines projected clearing prices.
result The Deep Q-Learning framework outperforms classical market-making models in simulations and real data.
Deep convolutional architecture identifies eye movements for biometric faster and more accurately.
problem Biometric identification of eye movements for authentication.
method Developed a deep convolutional architecture to process raw eye-tracking signals.
result Achieved a lower error rate by one order of magnitude and faster identification time by two orders of magnitude.
We recast the Calabi flow in DeGiorgi's language of minimizing movements. We establish the long time existence of minimizing movements for K-energy with arbitrary initial condition. Furthermore we establish some a priori regularity of these solutions, and that sufficiently regular minimizing movements are smooth soluti…
Survey reviews machine learning for automatic movement generation.
problem Need for automatic movement animation in interactive media.
method Machine learning techniques and motion capture data.
result Discussion of research gaps and challenges for future work.
Taureau uses Twitter sentiment analysis to predict stock market movement.
problem Predicting stock market movement using public opinion on Twitter.
method Obtained historical tweets, filtered and labeled, generated word embeddings, assessed sentiment scores, correlated with stock price movement, designed and evaluated predictive model.
result Taureau can predict stock price movement from lagged sentiment scores.
Model shows phase transitions in asset pricing with market maker incentives.
problem Analyzing asset pricing with market maker profit incentives.
method Stochastic game theory, neural networks.
result Equilibrium experiences three phases: linear pricing, mid-price with spread, and metastable state.
The study models market price movement based on investors' expectations.
problem Understanding the dynamics of investors' expectations and market price movement.
method Developed a non-linear evolutionary equation linking investors' expectations and market asset price movement.
result Model predictions co-integrated with asset time series, suggesting potential for price movement forecasting.
At the ultra high frequency level, the notion of price of an asset is very ambiguous. Indeed, many different prices can be defined (last traded price, best bid price, mid price,...). Thus, in practice, market participants face the problem of choosing a price when implementing their strategies. In this work, we propose …
Neural nets predict user attention from mouse movements.
problem Predicting user attention from mouse cursor movements.
method Investigated different mouse movement representations and trained neural networks.
result Neural networks outperform handcrafted features for predicting user attention.
Enhances financial time-series prediction by adapting pre-trained models to new data.
problem Adapting pre-trained financial models to new data sets efficiently.
method Augmented Bilinear Network that retains and adjusts pre-trained neural network knowledge.
result Improves prediction performance and reduces model complexity.
Paper proves minimizing movements match smooth droplet flow in 3D.
problem Consistency of minimizing movements with smooth mean curvature flow.
method Proved minimizing movements coincide with smooth droplet flow.
result Minimizing movements and smooth mean curvature flow are consistent in 3D.
MPANF improves naive forecast by incorporating directional information.
problem Challenging to surpass naive forecast in financial time series.
method Combines naive forecast with movement prediction and accuracy.
result MPANF generally outperforms common benchmarks.
New method calibrates crypto option prices more robustly.
problem Large bid-ask spreads and missing quotes in crypto markets.
method Designs a novel calibration procedure for crypto options.
result Calibration is more robust and accurate than standard methods.
Framework infers coordination strategies from movement data.
problem Inferring individual movement strategies from group data.
method Formalizes Coordination Strategy Inference Problem; provides methodology to infer strategies.
result Framework accurately infers strategies in simulated and real-world datasets.
Neuroscientific studies of drawing-like movements usually analyze neural representation of either geometric (eg. direction, shape) or temporal (eg. speed) features of trajectories rather than trajectory's representation as a whole. This work is about empirically supported mathematical ideas behind splitting and merging…
Study identifies key trades predicting market movements.
problem Predicting future market price movements.
method Optimized neural network predictor to identify influential trades.
result Trades with specific characteristics significantly impact future price predictions.
The study introduces a new stickiness parameter for stock prices using a non-linear model.
problem Understanding how closely individual stocks follow a stock index's price movements.
method Developed a non-linear pricing model inspired by tectonic plate movements to measure stickiness.
result Defined a stickiness parameter for stock price returns using a novel model.
Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.
problem Learn local rules governing long-term group behaviors.
method Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Linearly-Solvable Markov Decision Process.
result Recover true costs and find value of collective movement.