A microscopic model is established for financial Brownian motion from the direct observation of the dynamics of high-frequency traders (HFTs) in a foreign exchange market. Furthermore, a theoretical framework parallel to molecular kinetic theory is developed for the systematic description of the financial market from m…
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48 results for “microscopic derivation”
This study compares microscopic and macroscopic models for commodity index derivatives pricing.
problem Lack of accurate futures curve dynamics in macroscopic models for real scenarios.
method Calibrated both microscopic and macroscopic models using S\&P GSCI Crude Oil excess-return index derivatives.
result Macroscopic models struggle to capture futures curve dynamics, affecting pricing and sensitivities.
Derives mean field game equations from microscopic agent dynamics.
problem Modeling behavior of large interacting agents in games.
method Derives mean field game PDEs from deterministic agent dynamics using Nash equilibria and dynamic programming.
result Derives mean field game limits and scales from agent-based financial market model.
Adelic theory of stock marketq-fin.GN
The p-adic theory of the stock market is presented. It is shown that the price dynamics is very naturally described by the adelic function. The procedure of derivation of the functional integral formulation of adelic type is derived from microscopic models using generalized supercoherent states.
Microscopic (pore-scale) properties of porous media affect and often determine their macroscopic (continuum- or Darcy-scale) counterparts. Understanding the relationship between processes on these two scales is essential to both the derivation of macroscopic models of, e.g., transport phenomena in natural porous media,…
Macroscopic price evolution models are commonly used for investment strategies. There are first promising achievements in defining microscopic agent based models for the same purpose. Microscopic models allow a deeper understanding of mechanisms in the market than the purely phenomenological macroscopic models, and thu…
A microscopic model of triangular arbitragephysics.soc-ph
We introduce a microscopic model which describes the dynamics of each dealer in multiple foreign exchange markets, taking account of the triangular arbitrage transaction. The model reproduces the interaction among the markets well. We explore the relation between the parameters of the present microscopic model and the …
Microscopic Models of Financial Marketscond-mat.stat-mech
Submitted to F. Schweitzer (ed.), Microscopic Models for Economic Dynamics, Lecture notes in physics, Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg 2002.kiel.tex
We establish a microscopic convexity principle for nonlinear elliptic and parabolic partial differential equations in general form.
We discuss recently emerging applications of the state-of-art deep learning methods on optical microscopy and microscopic image reconstruction, which enable new transformations among different modes and modalities of microscopic imaging, driven entirely by image data. We believe that deep learning will fundamentally ch…
Study validates Lillo-Mike-Farmer model predicting financial market long-range correlations.
problem Quantifying long-range correlations in financial markets.
method Analyzed nine years of market data to classify traders as order-splitting or random, measured metaorder-length distributions, and compared to LMF model predictions.
result Agreement between LMF model predictions and actual data, validating the model.
A new theory explains large associative memory with biological plausibility.
problem Large associative memory in neurobiology and machine learning.
method Microscopic theory with hidden neurons and two-body interactions.
result Valid model of large associative memory with biological plausibility.
This paper applies quantum probability theory to model asset returns, avoiding assumptions about quantum effects.
problem Modeling asset returns with classical probability theory.
method Derives a Schrödinger-like trading equation using quantum probability, linking it to traders' decisions and market behaviors.
result Quantum probability can describe multimodal distributions of asset returns without assuming quantum effects.
New models explain multidimensional rough volatility from microscopic price dynamics.
problem Designing new rough stochastic volatility models for multi-asset scenarios.
method Using Hawkes processes to model microstructural interactions and investigate scaling limits.
result Multivariate rough volatility models arise naturally from microscopic price dynamics.
Methodology to analyze traffic accidents using microscopic models.
problem Understanding and predicting traffic accidents and their impact.
method Developed a statistical approach using microscopic traffic models and SUMO.
result Approximate distribution of total losses as a mean-variance mixture.
We derive a mesoscopic description of the behavior of a simple financial market where the agents can create their own portfolio between two investment alternatives: a stock and a bond. The model is derived starting from the Levy-Levy-Solomon microscopic model (Econ. Lett., 45, (1994), 103--111) using the methods of kin…
Recent technological development has enabled researchers to study social phenomena scientifically in detail and financial markets has particularly attracted physicists since the Brownian motion has played the key role as in physics. In our previous report (arXiv:1703.06739; to appear in Phys. Rev. Lett.), we have prese…
Deep learning model detects and classifies marine microfossils.
problem Manual identification of microfossils is time-consuming and error-prone.
method Transfer learning from ImageNet dataset to classify foraminifera.
result Proposed model achieves high accuracy on foraminifera classification.
The idea is considered that a quantum wormhole in a spacetime foam can be described as a Ricci flow. In this interpretation the Ricci flow is a statistical system and every metric in the Ricci flow is a microscopical state. The probability density of the microscopical state is connected with a Perelman's functional of …
We recently showed that the S&P500 stock market index is well described by Tsallis non-extensive statistics and nonlinear Fokker-Planck time evolution. We argued that these results should be applicable to a broad range of markets and exchanges where anomalous diffusion and `heavy' tails of the distribution are present.…
We seek to utilize the nonextensive statistics to the microscopic modeling of the interacting many-investor dynamics that drive the price changes in a market. The statistics of price changes are known to be fit well by the Students-T and power-law distributions of the nonextensive statistics. We therefore derive models…
Paper proves existence of unique constant scalar curvature Kähler metric under certain conditions.
problem Existence of constant scalar curvature Kähler metrics on polarized manifolds.
method Direct proof using microscopic stability thresholds and conditions on the limit.
result Existence of a unique constant scalar curvature Kähler metric under specific conditions.
Derivation of ARCH(1) process from market price changes based on deterministic microscopic multi-agentcond-mat.stat-mech
A model of fluctuations in the market price including many deterministic dealers, who predict their buying and selling prices from the latest price change, is developed. We show that price changes of the model is approximated by ARCH(1) process. We conclude that predictions of dealers affected by the past price changes…
Tying knots and linking microscopic loops of polymers, macromolecules, or defect lines in complex materials is a challenging task for material scientists. We demonstrate the knotting of microscopic topological defect lines in chiral nematic liquid crystal colloids into knots and links of arbitrary complexity by using l…
Data-driven framework learns coarse-scale PDEs from fine-scale observations.
problem Deriving macroscopic PDEs from microscopic observations is challenging.
method Machine learning algorithms (Gaussian Processes, Artificial Neural Networks, Diffusion Maps) to uncover macroscopic fields and their evolution.
result Identifies multiple macroscopic PDEs approximating fine-scale microscopic models.
We introduce a microscopic model of interacting financial agents, where each agent is characterized by two portfolios; money invested in bonds and money invested in stocks. Furthermore, each agent is faced with an optimization problem in order to determine the optimal asset allocation. The stock price evolution is driv…
Background: For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not…
Separation of dissipation from diffusioncond-mat.stat-mech
We study velocity correlations induced by diffusion and dissipation in a simple dissipative dynamical system. We observe that diffusion, as a result of time reversible microscopic processes, leads to correlations with different spatial parity from those caused by dissipation, consisting of time irreversible microscopic…
Extracts coarse-grained PDEs from microscopic simulations.
problem Discovering effective PDEs for macro-scale processes from microscopic data.
method Combining neural networks with equation-free numerics and data-driven approaches.
result Efficiently discovers macro-scale PDEs from microscopic simulations.
We present examples of agent-based and stochastic models of competition and business processes in economics and finance. We start from as simple as possible models, which have microscopic, agent-based, versions and macroscopic treatment in behavior. Microscopic and macroscopic versions of herding model proposed by Kirm…
Far from Asymptopiastat.OT
New optimal prior avoids bias in complex models with limited data.
problem Bias in inference from limited data using Jeffreys prior.
method Developed a principled choice of measure that avoids bias, dependent on data quantity.
result Optimal prior leads to unbiased inference in complex models.
We study the distributions of event-time returns and clock-time returns at different microscopic timescales using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the limit-order books of 23 stocks traded in the Chinese stock market in 2003. We find that the returns at the one-trade timescale obey the inverse cubic law. For la…
Modeling Stochastic Microscopic Traffic Behaviors: a Physics Regularized Gaussian Process Approachstat.ML
A new model captures car-following and lane-changing behaviors in traffic.
problem Modeling stochastic microscopic traffic behaviors.
method Physics regularized Gaussian process (PRGP) approach.
result The proposed model outperforms previous methods in estimation precision.
Unified theory of -expectations derived from chaotic dynamics.
problem Non-convex stochastic control problems outside G-expectations.
method Spectral theory of transfer operators for uniformly hyperbolic flows, viscosity solutions to HJB equations.
result Affine Hessian, non-convex gradient structure of -expectation.
A prognosis oriented microscopic stock market modelcond-mat.stat-mech
We present a new microscopic stochastic model for an ensemble of interacting investors that buy and sell stocks in discrete time steps via limit orders based on individual forecasts about the price of the stock. These orders determine the supply and demand fixing after each round (time step) the new price of the stock …
We propose a class of Markovian agent based models for the time evolution of a share price in an interactive market. The models rely on a microscopic description of a market of buyers and sellers who change their opinion about the stock value in a stochastic way. The actual price is determined in realistic way by match…
We derive a system of stochastic differential equations simulating the dynamics of the three agent groups with herding interaction. Proposed approach can be valuable in the modeling of the complex socio-economic systems with similar composition of the agents. We demonstrate how the sophisticated statistical features of…
A Bayesian Programming Approach to Car-following Model Calibration and Validation using Limited Datacs.LG
Bayesian approach improves car-following model calibration and validation with limited data.
problem Difficulties in calibrating car-following models using limited data for work zones.
method Bayesian programming for data analysis and parameter estimation.
result Bayesian methods enhance model calibration and validation accuracy.
Motivated by a zero-intelligence approach, the aim of this paper is to connect the microscopic (discrete price and volume), mesoscopic (discrete price and continuous volume) and macroscopic (continuous price and volume) frameworks for the modelling of limit order books, with a view to providing a natural probabilistic …
We infer both microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of a three-dimensional chaotic fluid flow using reservoir computing. In our procedure of the inference, we assume no prior knowledge of a physical process of a fluid flow except that its behavior is complex but deterministic. We present two ways of inference of the co…
In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains chall…
In this paper we study the possible microscopic origin of heavy-tailed probability density distributions for the price variation of financial instruments. We extend the standard log-normal process to include another random component in the so-called stochastic volatility models. We study these models under an assumptio…
We present a theoretical analysis of the training process for a single-layer GAN fed by high-dimensional input data. The training dynamics of the proposed model at both microscopic and macroscopic scales can be exactly analyzed in the high-dimensional limit. In particular, we prove that the macroscopic quantities measu…
While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical interest is computationally infeasible or impractical. In complex systems, with lim…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector level. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctu…
A benchmarking framework for studying data geometry.
problem Generalization and approximation error bounds in deep learning.
method Repurposing and extending dSprites and COIL-20 with additional transformation dimensions and dense, axis-aligned sampling.
result Near-ground-truth accuracy in curvature, reach, and volume estimation.
Framework detects and classifies multi-label RBC images from microscopic images.
problem Challenges in separating touching or overlapping cells for classification.
method Region proposal model + CNN feature extraction + multi-label prediction networks.
result Framework achieves good performance in automatic cell detection and classification.
A microscopic dynamic model is here constructed and analyzed, describing the evolution of the income distribution in the presence of taxation and redistribution in a society in which also tax evasion and auditing processes occur. The focus is on effects of enforcement regimes, characterized by different choices of the …