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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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138276414552 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for meta prediction

Meta-learning reduces set prediction size in conformal prediction for few-shot calibration.

problem Inefficient set prediction in conformal prediction for limited training data.
method Meta-learning approach using cross-validation-based conformal prediction.
result Meta-learning scheme reduces set prediction size and preserves formal guarantees.

New method improves meta-learning performance by task-specific initialization.

problem Difficulties in generalizing and achieving theoretical guarantees in conditional meta-learning.
method Structured prediction approach for task-specific initialization.
result TASML improves performance of existing meta-learning models.

VMGP extends Gaussian processes for Bayesian meta-learning, improving uncertainty prediction.

problem Bayesian meta-learning for few-shot tasks with non-Gaussian uncertainty.
method VMGP (Variational Meta-Gaussian Processes) extends Gaussian processes to model non-Gaussian predictive posteriors.
result VMGP significantly outperforms existing Bayesian meta-learning methods on complex tasks.

Proposes active learning for meta-learning in graph node response prediction.

problem Difficulty in improving performance with meta-learning due to unbalanced observations.
method Combines graph convolutional neural networks and reinforcement learning for both prediction and node selection.
result Can predict responses and select nodes even for unseen response variables.

Meta-learning predicts stock trading volumes by learning from each stock's unique patterns.

problem Predicting trading volumes for different stocks using a universal model.
method Dual-process meta-learning framework that learns common patterns with a meta-learner and specific patterns with stock-dependent parameters.
result Improves performance of various baseline models in volume predictions.

MARS meta-learns function scores for improved predictive accuracy and uncertainty.

problem Difficulty in specifying expressive priors for Bayesian meta-learning.
method Meta-learning the score function of data-generating process marginals in the function space.
result State-of-the-art predictive accuracy and improved uncertainty estimates.

Making an adaptive prediction based on one's input is an important ability for general artificial intelligence. In this work, we step forward in this direction and propose a semi-parametric method, Meta-Neighborhoods, where predictions are made adaptively to the neighborhood of the input. We show that Meta-Neighborhood…

2019-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Meta-ANOVA simplifies complex models for better interpretability.

problem Complex models are hard to interpret, limiting their use in fields needing accountability.
method Transforms black-box models into interpretable ANOVA models by screening unnecessary interactions.
result Meta-ANOVA provides an interpretable model for any prediction model, proving asymptotic consistency.

Bayesian meta-learning predicts Alzheimer's disease progression.

problem Predicting individual Alzheimer's disease progression from limited data.
method Bayesian meta-learning approach that dynamically predicts disease score distributions.
result Bayesian meta-learner outperforms single-task models and deterministic meta-learners, especially for long-term predictions.

Several multi-target regression methods were devel-oped in the last years aiming at improving predictive performanceby exploring inter-target correlation within the problem. However, none of these methods outperforms the others for all problems. This motivates the development of automatic approachesto recommend the mos…

2019-07-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian meta-learning improves health prediction models across similar diseases.

problem Inter- and intra-task variability in healthcare predictions due to disease heterogeneity and patient differences.
method Bayesian meta-learning approach that models task similarity to mitigate negative transfer and improve generalizability.
result Significant generalizability improvements in stroke prediction tasks using electronic health record data.

We consider the task of few shot link prediction on graphs. The goal is to learn from a distribution over graphs so that a model is able to quickly infer missing edges in a new graph after a small amount of training. We show that current link prediction methods are generally ill-equipped to handle this task. They canno…

2019-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Meta-learning performance is affected by how task diversity is allocated, not just overall variability.

problem Meta-learning performance degrades when task diversity is unevenly distributed.
method Decomposed task-specific regression effects into structurally informative and orthogonal components.
result Meta-learning prediction degrades when a larger fraction of task variability is orthogonal and non-informative.

NeuroQuery synthesizes brain mapping evidence across diverse concepts.

problem Lack of comprehensive meta-analysis of human brain mapping across different mental processes and mechanisms.
method A multivariate model that predicts the spatial distribution of neurological observations given text describing an experiment, cognitive process, or disease.
result Captures relationships and neural correlates of 7,547 neuroscience terms across 13,459 neuroimaging publications.

Compared to humans, machine learning models generally require significantly more training examples and fail to extrapolate from experience to solve previously unseen challenges. To help close this performance gap, we augment single-task neural networks with a meta-recognition model which learns a succinct model code vi…

2018-07-26abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper investigates different vector step-size adaptation approaches for non-stationary online, continual prediction problems. Vanilla stochastic gradient descent can be considerably improved by scaling the update with a vector of appropriately chosen step-sizes. Many methods, including AdaGrad, RMSProp, and AMSGra…

2019-07-17abs ↗pdf ↗

In this thesis, we study the problem of feature learning on heterogeneous knowledge graphs. These features can be used to perform tasks such as link prediction, classification and clustering on graphs. Knowledge graphs provide rich semantics encoded in the edge and node types. Meta-paths consist of these types and abst…

2018-09-07abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for efficient probabilistic meta-learning.

problem High-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates require large amounts of data.
method Amortised Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks (APOVI-BNN)
result The APOVI-BNN produces high-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates using significantly less data.

F-PACOH improves meta-learners' reliability in uncertain regions.

problem Overconfident uncertainty estimates in meta-learning.
method Meta-learning priors as stochastic processes in function space, directly steering predictions towards high epistemic uncertainty.
result Significantly outperforms other meta-learners in Bayesian Optimization.

Framework uses physics knowledge to improve spatiotemporal prediction with limited data.

problem Challenges in modeling physical systems with limited real-world data.
method Physics-aware meta-learning with auxiliary tasks, incorporating PDE-independent spatial and temporal modules.
result Framework outperforms in spatiotemporal prediction tasks with limited data.

Meta-learning improves GNN initializations for low-resource drug discovery.

problem Limited labeled data hinders deep learning in drug discovery.
method Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) and its variants for graph neural networks initializations.
result Meta-initializations outperform multi-task pre-training baselines on 16 out of 20 tasks and all out-of-distribution tasks.

The success of machine learning on a given task dependson, among other things, which learning algorithm is selected and its associated hyperparameters. Selecting an appropriate learning algorithm and setting its hyperparameters for a given data set can be a challenging task, especially for users who are not experts in …

2014-07-07abs ↗pdf ↗

FLAP adapts policies quickly to new tasks using shared linear representations.

problem Adapting policies to new tasks efficiently and effectively.
method FLAP uses a shared linear representation and a separate adapter network for quick adaptation.
result FLAP achieves up to 8X faster adaptation and significantly better performance on out-of-distribution tasks.

Modified Meta-TS for linear contextual bandits reduces regret.

problem Optimizing decision-making in dynamic environments with context vectors.
method Meta-TSLB algorithm for linear contextual bandits, analyzing Bayes regret.
result Derives an O((m+log(m))nlog(n)) O((m+\log(m))\sqrt{n\log(n)}) bound on Bayes regret.

PACOH improves meta-learning with theoretical guarantees and practical efficiency.

problem Meta-learning's generalization to unseen tasks is poorly understood, especially with limited meta-training tasks.
method PAC-Bayesian framework for deriving generalization bounds and developing PAC-optimal meta-learning algorithms.
result PACOH yields state-of-the-art performance in predictive accuracy and uncertainty estimation.

Meta-learning, or learning to learn, is a machine learning approach that utilizes prior learning experiences to expedite the learning process on unseen tasks. As a data-driven approach, meta-learning requires meta-features that represent the primary learning tasks or datasets, and are estimated traditonally as engineer…

2019-05-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Memory-based models can learn to approximate Bayes-optimal predictors for non-stationary data.

problem Learning from non-stationary data with unobserved switching points.
method Memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs, trained to minimize log loss.
result Memory-based models can accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and perform Bayesian inference over latent switching points.

Proposes a method to improve graph neural networks on heterogeneous graphs using meta-paths.

problem Improving graph neural networks on heterogeneous graphs with auxiliary tasks.
method Self-supervised auxiliary learning with meta-paths for heterogeneous graphs.
result Consistently improves link prediction and node classification on heterogeneous graphs.