A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Modeling hidden neurons in SNNs using mesoscopic approximations.
We study the probability distribution of stock returns at mesoscopic time lags (return horizons) ranging from about an hour to about a month. While at shorter microscopic time lags the distribution has power-law tails, for mesoscopic times the bulk of the distribution (more than 99% of the probability) follows an expon…
To understand how rich dynamics emerge in neural populations, we require models exhibiting a wide range of activity patterns while remaining interpretable in terms of connectivity and single-neuron dynamics. However, it has been challenging to fit such mechanistic spiking networks at the single neuron scale to empirica…
A master equation approach to the numerical solution of option pricing models is developed. The basic idea of the approach is to consider the Black--Scholes equation as the macroscopic equation of an underlying mesoscopic stochastic option price variable. The dynamics of the latter is constructed and formulated in term…
The paper develops a new model for order book dynamics using Hawkes processes.
New method uncovers hidden groups in CDS market not tied to standard industry classifications.
The paper identifies a mesoscopic market structure and uses it to improve portfolio optimization.
We derive a mesoscopic description of the behavior of a simple financial market where the agents can create their own portfolio between two investment alternatives: a stock and a bond. The model is derived starting from the Levy-Levy-Solomon microscopic model (Econ. Lett., 45, (1994), 103--111) using the methods of kin…
Graph Cascades rewire graphs to improve structure-aware learning.
We develop a theory to represent dislocated single crystals at the mesoscopic scale by considering concentrated effects, governed by the distribution theory combined with multiple-valued kinematic fields. Our approach gives a new understanding of the continuum theory of defects as developed by Kroener (1980) and other …
We prove that the braid group on 4 strings, as well as its central quotient , have the property RD of Haagerup-Jolissaint. It follows that the automorphism group $\Aut(F_2)$ of the free group on 2 generators has property RD. We also prove that the braid group is a group of intermediate rank …
MALT improves adversarial attacks by targeting classes more efficiently.
Motivated by a zero-intelligence approach, the aim of this paper is to connect the microscopic (discrete price and volume), mesoscopic (discrete price and continuous volume) and macroscopic (continuous price and volume) frameworks for the modelling of limit order books, with a view to providing a natural probabilistic …
This dissertation reports work where physics methods are applied to financial and economical problems. The first part studies stock market data (chapter 1 to 5). The second part is devoted to personal income in the USA (chapter 6). We first study the probability distribution of stock returns at mesoscopic time lags (re…
In this article we review several techniques to extract information from stock market data. We discuss recurrence analysis of time series, decomposition of aggregate correlation matrices to study co-movements in financial data, stock level partial correlations with market indices, multidimensional scaling and minimum s…
A challenging problem in the study of complex systems is that of resolving, without prior information, the emergent, mesoscopic organization determined by groups of units whose dynamical activity is more strongly correlated internally than with the rest of the system. The existing techniques to filter correlations are …
This manuscript reports a stochastic dynamical scenario whose associated stationary probability density function is exactly a previously proposed one to adjust high-frequency traded volume distributions. This dynamical conjecture, physically connected to superstatiscs, which is intimately related with the current nonex…
Mesoscopic pattern extraction (MPE) is the problem of finding a partition of the nodes of a complex network that maximizes some objective function. Many well-known network inference problems fall in this category, including, for instance, community detection, core-periphery identification, and imperfect graph coloring.…
The mesoscopic organization of complex systems, from financial markets to the brain, is an intermediate between the microscopic dynamics of individual units (stocks or neurons, in the mentioned cases), and the macroscopic dynamics of the system as a whole. The organization is determined by "communities" of units whose …
In the past decade there has been a growing interest in agent-based econophysical financial market models. The goal of these models is to gain further insights into stylized facts of financial data. We derive the mean field limit of the econophysical model by Cross, Grinfeld, Lamba and Seaman (Physica A, 354) and show …
This paper presents a mesoscopic traffic flow model that explicitly describes the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability distributions of vehicle trajectories. The dynamics are represented by a sequence of factor graphs, which enable learning of traffic dynamics from limited Lagrangian measurements using an effic…
Framework detects tipping points in complex systems using ML.
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce…
A microscopic model is established for financial Brownian motion from the direct observation of the dynamics of high-frequency traders (HFTs) in a foreign exchange market. Furthermore, a theoretical framework parallel to molecular kinetic theory is developed for the systematic description of the financial market from m…
We study minority games in efficient regime. By incorporating the utility function and aggregating agents with similar strategies we develop an effective mesoscale notion of state of the game. Using this approach, the game can be represented as a Markov process with substantially reduced number of states with explicitl…
The paper proposes a time-dependent Markov model for a limit order book.
In science and especially in economics, agent-based modeling has become a widely used modeling approach. These models are often formulated as a large system of difference equations. In this study, we discuss two aspects, numerical modeling and the probabilistic description for two agent-based computational economic mar…
This paper proposes and analyzes a novel clustering algorithm that combines graph-based diffusion geometry with techniques based on density and mode estimation. The proposed method is suitable for data generated from mixtures of distributions with densities that are both multimodal and have nonlinear shapes. A crucial …
New curvature measure for causal sets derived from optimal transport.
We demonstrate the existence of an empirical linkage between the nominal financial networks and the underlying economic fundamentals across countries. We construct the nominal return correlation networks from daily data to encapsulate sector-level dynamics and figure the relative importance of the sectors in the nomina…
Recent research on Bitcoin Transaction Networks reveals a growing, sparse, and core-periphery structure.
Develops DSD for analyzing multiscale biological networks.
Trade is a fundamental pillar of economy and a form of social organization. Its empirical characterization at the worldwide scale is represented by the World Trade Web (WTW), the network built upon the trade relationships between the different countries. Several scientific studies have focused on the structural charact…
Understanding the connectivity in the brain is an important prerequisite for understanding how the brain processes information. In the Brain/MINDS project, a connectivity study on marmoset brains uses two-photon microscopy fluorescence images of axonal projections to collect the neuron connectivity from defined brain r…
In this paper, we introduce a large system of interacting financial agents in which each agent is faced with the decision of how to allocate his capital between a risky stock or a risk-less bond. The investment decision of investors, derived through an optimization, drives the stock price. The model has been inspired b…
We present atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of two Polyethylene systems where all entanglements are trapped: a perfect network, and a melt with grafted chain ends. We examine microscopically at what level topological constraints can be considered as a collective entanglement effect, as in tube model theories, o…
Framework for analyzing dynamic topological changes in point clouds using persistent homology and dynamic optimal transport.
The one-class classification problem is a well-known research endeavor in pattern recognition. The problem is also known under different names, such as outlier and novelty/anomaly detection. The core of the problem consists in modeling and recognizing patterns belonging only to a so-called target class. All other patte…
Researchers infer firm-level supply chain networks from sector-level data to assess systemic risk.
Agent-based simulation assesses tradable credit schemes for congestion reduction.
Rate GENERIC extends thermodynamics principles to non-equilibrium systems.
In this paper, we perform a comparative segmentation and clustering analysis of the time series for the ten Dow Jones US economic sector indices between 14 February 2000 and 31 August 2008. From the temporal distributions of clustered segments, we find that the US economy took one and a half years to recover from the m…
New method cleans cross-covariance matrices for better financial forecasting.
Schizophrenia, a mental disorder that is characterized by abnormal social behavior and failure to distinguish one's own thoughts and ideas from reality, has been associated with structural abnormalities in the architecture of functional brain networks. Using various methods from network analysis, we examine the effect …
Study finds price impact follows a 'double' square-root law, suggesting mechanical origin.
We propose a novel approach and an empirical procedure to test direct contagion of growth rate in a trade credit network of firms. Our hypotheses are that the use of trade credit contributes to contagion (from many customers to a single supplier - "many to one" contagion) and amplification (through their interaction wi…
The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.
The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.