Three methods for tuning HMC diagonal scale matrices compared.
problem Improving Hamiltonian Monte Carlo efficiency with diagonal scale matrices.
method Three approaches: ISG, median crossing frequency, and estimated marginal standard deviations.
result ISG method leads to more efficient sampling in many cases.
Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their difference, to catch particularly prominent causality cycles in relative terms. In particu…
This paper analyzes the distribution of genera in 2-bridge knots and proves their asymptotic normality.
problem Analyzing the distribution of genera in 2-bridge knots.
method Proving asymptotic normality through median, mode, and variance calculations.
result The distribution of genera of 2-bridge knots is asymptotically normal.
This paper analyzes arbitrage opportunities in Polymarket's NBA markets.
problem Underexplored market microstructure and high-frequency pricing efficiency in decentralized prediction markets.
method Systematic empirical analysis of algorithmic arbitrage using over 75 million limit order book snapshots.
result Microstructural efficiency is profound, with single-market anomalies rare and combinatorial inefficiencies more frequent.
We consider a natural model of random knotting- choose a knot diagram at random from the finite set of diagrams with n crossings. We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model. As expected, most diagrams with 1…
The study finds significant power-law cross correlations in Bitcoin's return-volatility dynamics.
problem Investigating asymmetry in Bitcoin's return-volatility relationships.
method Analysis of daily and high-frequency Bitcoin data to identify cross correlations.
result Power-law cross correlations between returns and future volatilities are observed, indicating long-range dependencies.
CMC method detects causal relationships in time series data.
problem Understanding causal relationships in nonlinear systems.
method Cross-Mapping Coherence method, based on nonlinear state-space reconstruction and coherence metrics.
result CMC accurately identifies causal connections in various systems.
The multiple fundamental frequency detection problem and the source separation problem from a single-channel signal containing multiple oscillatory components and a nonstationary noise are both challenging tasks. To extract the fetal electrocardiogram (ECG) from a single-lead maternal abdominal ECG, we face both challe…
Study the geometry of graph product extension graphs.
problem Properties of graph products.
method Introduce and study the extension graph of graph products of groups.
result Extension graph is isomorphic to crossing graph of a quasi-median graph and exhibits asymptotic dimension similar to quasi-trees.
The paper examines bounds for stop-loss payoffs using transformed random variables.
problem Bounding stop-loss payoffs for a difference of two random variables.
method Analyzes crossing points of cdfs of original and transformed random variables.
result Unique pairwise crossing points for mortality-linked securities under symmetric copulas.
We examine the performance of six estimators of the power-law cross-correlations -- the detrended cross-correlation analysis, the detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis, the height cross-correlation analysis, the averaged periodogram estimator, the cross-periodogram estimator and the local cross-Whittle e…
Speech separation has been very successful with deep learning techniques. Substantial effort has been reported based on approaches over spectrogram, which is well known as the standard time-and-frequency cross-domain representation for speech signals. It is highly correlated to the phonetic structure of speech, or "how…
In order to emphasize cross-correlations for fluctuations in major market places, series of up and down spins are built from financial data. Patterns frequencies are measured, and statistical tests performed. Strong cross-correlations are emphasized, proving that market moves are collective behaviors.
We construct compactifications for median spaces with compact intervals, generalising Roller boundaries of CAT(0) cube complexes. Examples of median spaces with compact intervals include all finite rank median spaces and all proper median spaces of infinite rank. Our methods also work for general median algebra…
FRA-Attack improves adversarial transferability for closed-source MLLMs by aligning visual focus across models.
problem Improving adversarial transferability for closed-source MLLMs, especially with high accuracy.
method Unified frequency-domain regularization approach: high-pass DCT objective for feature alignment and Frequency-domain Gradient Regularization (FGR) for gradient optimization.
result FRA-Attack achieves superior cross-model transferability, especially on GPT-5.4, Claude-Opus-4.6, and Gemini-3-flash.
A method for fast, accurate cross-temporal forecasts using machine learning.
problem Inconsistent forecasts across different levels of platform data.
method Non-linear hierarchical forecast reconciliation using machine learning.
result Automated direct production of reconciled forecasts for high-frequency decision making.
Paper introduces robust deep learning method for handling random data corruption.
problem Random corruption in deep learning data due to limited quality of data.
method Inspired by median-of-means and Le Cam's principle, introduces a new approach.
result Demonstrates the approach performs well in practice and is a promising alternative to standard training methods.
Study on costs of manipulating AMM-based price oracles.
problem Cost of manipulation in AMM-based on-chain price oracles.
method Analyzes the robustness of AMM-based oracles to strategic manipulation, considering different aggregation methods and market conditions.
result Manipulation costs depend on the total quote depth and can be minimized by optimal liquidity weights.
The high-frequency cross-correlation existing between pairs of stocks traded in a financial market are investigated in a set of 100 stocks traded in US equity markets. A hierarchical organization of the investigated stocks is obtained by determining a metric distance between stocks and by investigating the properties o…
New concept of coarse medians for higher rank symmetric spaces.
problem Understanding medians in higher rank symmetric spaces.
method Introducing coarse r-median spaces and proving their existence. result Existence of coarse higher medians on divisible and quasi-homogeneous convex domains.
Unique median structures found in hyperbolic spaces.
problem Uniqueness of median structures in hyperbolic spaces.
method Analyzing product of hyperbolic spaces and properties of relative hyperbolicity.
result Non-hyperbolic pants graphs can have unique median structures.
Study on median algebra structures on Euclidean spaces and manifolds with local CAT(0) cubulation.
problem Understanding median algebra structures on Euclidean spaces and manifolds.
method Showed local CAT(0) cubulation for median structures on ER homology manifolds.
result Median structures on ER homology manifolds have a local CAT(0) cubulation structure.
Paper uses machine learning for nowcasting corporate earnings from mixed-frequency data.
problem Predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with different frequency data.
method Structured machine learning regressions with sparse-group LASSO regularization for panel data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional methods in nowcasting corporate earnings.
New method for estimating lead-lag times between non-synchronously observed point processes.
problem Estimating lead-lag relationships between non-synchronously observed point processes.
method Formulate lead-lag estimation as CPCF shape estimation; propose kernel density estimation-based lead-lag time estimator.
result Proposed method delivers superior numerical performance and effective lead-lag time estimation.
We prove a version of the Tits alternative for groups acting on complete, finite rank median spaces. This shows that group actions on finite rank median spaces are much more restricted than actions on general median spaces. Along the way, we extend to median spaces the Caprace-Sageev machinery and part of Hagen's theor…
We analyse the dependence of stock return cross-correlations on the sampling frequency of the data known as the Epps effect: For high resolution data the cross-correlations are significantly smaller than their asymptotic value as observed on daily data. The former description implies that changing trading frequency sho…
We show that uniform lattices of isometries of products of real hyperbolic spaces act properly discontinuously and cocompactly on a median space. For lattices in products of at least two factors, this is the strongest degree of compatibility possible with the median geometry. Our theorem is also relevant for potential …
Convex cores found for group actions on median spaces.
problem Understanding group actions on median spaces without metric or topology.
method Introduced convex cores for actions on finite-rank median algebras.
result Actions on median spaces have nonempty convex cores.
New method for neural networks to predict histogram data.
problem Lack of principled approach for histogram regression.
method Pinball loss applied to cumulative histogram.
result Accuracy similar to EMD with less computational cost.
We introduce and begin to explore the mean and median of finite sets of shapes represented as integral currents. The median can be computed efficiently in practice, and we focus most of our theoretical and computational attention on medians. We consider questions on the existence and regularity of medians. While the me…
Study evaluates three ML models for high-frequency trading.
problem Improving accuracy and reliability of high-frequency trading strategies.
method Compared three models: cross-entropy loss + quasi-Newton, FCNN, and vector machine.
result Combination of cross-entropy loss and quasi-Newton outperformed other models.
This paper is a short summary of our recent work on the medians and means of probability measures in Riemannian manifolds. Firstly, the existence and uniqueness results of local medians are given. In order to compute medians in practical cases, we propose a subgradient algorithm and prove its convergence. After that, F…
A method for estimating the median of gradients in stochastic optimization.
problem Robust gradient estimation in stochastic optimization for various applications.
method Stochastic Proximal Point Method for median gradient estimation.
result The proposed method can converge even under heavy-tailed, state-dependent noise.
This paper introduces online algorithms to estimate robust geometric median in large data streams.
problem Detecting outliers in large data sets using robust statistical measures.
method Online stochastic Newton methods for estimating the geometric median.
result Rates of convergence for online estimation of the geometric median.
Framework clusters noisy MTS with robust fuzzy clustering, improving accuracy over existing methods.
problem Challenges in clustering multivariate time series due to non-stationary dependencies, noise, and state boundaries.
method Spectral fuzzy clustering using Kendall's tau-based canonical coherence for frequency-specific monotonic relationships.
result Framework outperforms existing methods in clustering noisy, high-dimensional MTS.
Study reveals jumps in crypto markets predict future prices.
problem Understanding jumps in high frequency digital asset markets.
method High frequency crypto data analysis, econometric modeling.
result Intra-day jumps significantly influence end of day returns.
The study finds that maximizing median returns is the only viable strategy in portfolio selection.
problem Difficulties in studying optimal portfolio strategies due to discontinuity and time inconsistency in maximizing median and quantile returns.
method Used intra-personal equilibrium approach to analyze portfolio selection under median and quantile maximization.
result Median maximization is the only viable strategy, with no investment in risky assets for other quantiles.
We present algorithms for topic modeling based on the geometry of cross-document word-frequency patterns. This perspective gains significance under the so called separability condition. This is a condition on existence of novel-words that are unique to each topic. We present a suite of highly efficient algorithms based…
New graph properties inherited by Frechet mean and median.
problem Characterizing the average of graph-valued samples.
method Analysis of Frechet mean and median graphs.
result Edge density is hereditary in Frechet mean and median graphs.
Model for cross-border markets with limited transmission capacities.
problem Limited transmission capacities between two countries' markets.
method Developed a regime-switching process model with high-frequency approximation.
result Analytic tractability allows computation of key market quantities.
Neural nets analyze crypto markets for multi-timeframe trading.
problem High-frequency trading in cryptocurrency markets.
method Multi-timeframe trend analysis and high-frequency direction prediction networks.
result Positive risk-adjusted returns through machine learning.
Tukey median performance analyzed under TV corruptions.
problem Performance analysis of Tukey median under TV corruptions.
method Analysis of Tukey median and projection algorithm under TV corruptions.
result Breakdown point reduced to 1/4 under TV corruptions, compared to 1/3 under Huber's model.
The consistency of Fréchet medians is proved for probability measures in proper metric spaces. In the context of Riemannian manifolds, assuming that the probability measure has more than a half mass lying in a convex ball and verifies some concentration conditions, the positions of its Fréchet medians are estimated. It…
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
problem Quantile return connectedness of grain futures markets during geopolitical instability.
method Dynamic quantile VAR combined with frequency-domain decomposition.
result Heterogeneous spillovers across quantiles, with strong transmitters and persistent receivers.
We analyse the temporal changes in the cross correlations of returns on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that lead-lag relationships between daily returns of stocks vanished in less than twenty years. We have found that even for high frequency data the asymmetry of time dependent cross-correlation functions has a d…
In high dimensions, the mean and geometric median are nearly identical.
problem Understanding the relationship between mean and geometric median in high-dimensional spaces.
method Analytical derivation and simulation of the distance between mean and geometric median.
result The distance between mean and geometric median vanishes with dimensionality in high dimensions.
New subspace prototype flag median improves clustering on noisy data.
problem Finding robust prototypes for datasets of images and videos.
method Proposes flag median and introduces FlagIRLS algorithm for its calculation.
result Flag median is robust to outliers and improves cluster purity.
Improved median of means estimator with tighter bounds.
problem Improving the efficiency and reliability of median of means estimator.
method Modification of the median of means estimator with sub-Gaussian deviation bounds.
result Achieves nearly optimal constants under minimal assumptions.