Study resolves time consistency in mean-standard deviation stopping problem for discrete time.
problem Time consistency in mean-standard deviation stopping problem for discrete time.
method Formulated as subgame perfect Nash equilibrium, considering liquidation strategies.
result Equilibrium liquidation strategy always exists, but optimal strategies may not.
Study quantifies model risk in dynamic portfolio selection using KL divergence.
problem Model risk in financial portfolio selection under uncertainty.
method Defined model risk as KL divergence loss, solved nonlinear equations for optimal robust strategy.
result Optimal robust strategy can be obtained semi-analytically in worst case scenario.
Pareto's 80/20 rule follows a Gaussian distribution with twice the mean standard deviation.
problem Understanding variations in the 80/20 rule across different contexts.
method Identifying the statistical distribution of the 80/20 rule and its variations.
result The 80/20 rule follows a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation twice the mean.
Simple mean and std-based classifier outperforms chance on 69 out of 128 time-series problems.
problem Time-series classification accuracy comparison
method Linear classifier using mean and standard deviation features
result Simple distributional features outperform chance on 69 out of 128 time-series problems
Neural networks predict shapes of first passage percolation sets.
problem Predicting the shape of first passage percolation sets.
method Used a neural network to predict the shape of the set of discovered sites from the distribution of passage times.
result Neural networks can quickly predict the shape of the set of discovered sites from the distribution of passage times.
New system detects and classifies cardiac arrhythmias in ECGs.
problem Detecting and classifying various types of cardiac arrhythmias.
method Combination of CNNs and LSTM networks with pooling, dropout, and normalization.
result Overall F-measure of 0.8310-0.015 on held-out test data.
Physics-informed GANs estimate elastic moduli from mechanical tests.
problem Estimating spatially-varying elastic moduli from measured deformations.
method Physics-informed Generative Adversarial Networks (PI-GANs) with PDE constraints.
result Generated stiffness samples match true distribution statistics.
Paper proposes a new uncertainty measure for active learning in neural networks.
problem Efficiently selecting informative data points in limited labeled data scenarios.
method BalEntAcq, a new uncertainty measure based on balanced entropy, approximated by Beta distributions.
result BalEntAcq outperforms existing uncertainty measures in active learning.
Wealth tax equivalent to government stake, affecting returns and portfolio choice.
problem Effect of proportional wealth tax on asset returns and portfolio choice.
method Analyzes the economic equivalence and multiplicative separability of wealth tax, deriving four main results.
result The coefficient of variation of wealth is invariant to the tax rate, and optimal portfolio weights are independent of the tax rate.
Introduces Star-Shaped deviation measures for risk analysis.
problem Risk measurement and analysis in finance.
method Characterizes Star-Shaped deviation measures through acceptance sets and convex deviation measures.
result Exposes the relationship between Star-Shaped risk measures and deviation measures.
Extends moderate deviations for a randomised Heston model.
problem Analyzing deviations in the Heston model with randomisation.
method Used Gärtner-Ellis theorem and sharp large deviations tools.
result Extended moderate deviations results for the randomised Heston model.
Paper characterizes monotonic mean-deviation risk measures.
problem Developing consistent risk measures from mean-deviation models.
method Applying a risk-weighting function to the deviation part of a mean-deviation model.
result Characterizes monotonic mean-deviation measures as consistent risk measures.
Unified treatment of option pricing deviations scaled for financial models.
problem Modeling and scaling for option pricing deviations.
method Pathwise moderate deviations for financial models and related functionals.
result Unified approach to small-time, large-time, and tail asymptotics for diffusions and option prices.
Paper analyzes dynamic deviation measures and risk-sharing solutions.
problem Optimal risk-sharing solutions for dynamic deviation measures.
method Dynamic inf-convolution problem involving transformed dynamic deviation measures.
result The only dynamic deviation measure that is law invariant and recursive is variance.
Paper proves large deviation principle for stochastic approximations.
problem Asymptotic estimates of learning algorithm deviations.
method Weak convergence approach to large deviations.
result Identifies appropriate scaling sequence and new representation for rate function.
In this paper we propose the notion of dynamic deviation measure, as a dynamic time-consistent extension of the (static) notion of deviation measure. To achieve time-consistency we require that a dynamic deviation measures satisfies a generalised conditional variance formula. We show that, under a domination condition,…
Adaptive neural networks learn functional data bases for improved performance.
problem Applying deep learning to functional data is challenging due to high dimensionality.
method Proposes adaptive neural networks with Basis Layers that learn relevant basis functions.
result Empirically outperforms other neural network approaches across various tasks.
Study large deviations in life insurance portfolios without identical distributions.
problem Large deviations in life insurance portfolios with bounded losses and variances.
method Upper bound from standard large deviations, counterexample for full large deviation principle.
result Exponential bound for average loss exceeding a threshold.
Study large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
problem Large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion measures on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
method Rough path theory and manifold-valued Malliavin calculus.
result Proved a large deviation principle for pinned hypoelliptic diffusion measures.
Proposes new deviation measures using Minkowski gauges.
problem Lack of suitable acceptance sets for deviation measures.
method Derives deviation measures through Minkowski gauges of acceptable sets.
result Any positive homogeneous deviation measure can be accommodated in the framework.
Study rolling dynamics with random slipping and twisting using large deviation principles.
problem Analyzing the stability of a rolling model with random slipping and twisting.
method Modelled as a stochastic differential equation on the orthonormal frame bundle, examined via large deviations.
result Proved large deviation principles for projection curves and their horizontal lifts on the base manifold.
Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a way to speed up computations. This paper considers moderate deviations for the wei…
Connections between Lie derivatives and the deviation equation has been investigated in spaces with affine connection. The deviation equations of the geodesics as well as deviation equations of non-geodesics trajectories have been obtained on this base. This is done via imposing certain conditions on the Lie derivative…
Unified approach to stochastic Volterra systems' deviations.
problem Large and moderate deviations for stochastic Volterra systems.
method Weak convergence approach by Budhijara, Dupuis and Ellis.
result Unified treatment of deviations for a broad class of stochastic Volterra equations.
Study large deviations in random walks on Lie groups.
problem Large deviations in sub-Riemannian random walks.
method Prove large deviation principle for random walks on stratified Lie groups.
result Proved a large deviation principle with a rate function adapted to sub-Riemannian geometry.
Deviation inequalities and limit laws for random walks on metric spaces.
problem Understanding random walks on metric spaces with contracting isometries.
method Adapting Gouëzel's pivotal time construction to establish deviation inequalities.
result Exponential bounds and limit laws for random walks on mapping class groups and CAT(0) spaces.
Let M be a smooth manifold and S a semi-spray defined on a sub-bundle C of the tangent bundle TM. In this work it is proved that the only non-trivial k-jet approximation to the exact geodesic deviation equation of S, linear on the deviation functions and invariant under an spec…
Optimizes variance reduction in Heston model using large and moderate deviations.
problem Improving variance reduction in stochastic volatility models.
method Large and moderate deviations theory applied to Heston model.
result Derives closed-form solutions for optimal change of measure.
Large deviations theory applied to policy gradient methods.
problem Understanding convergence of policy gradient methods in reinforcement learning.
method Large deviation rate function and contraction principle from large deviations theory.
result Convergence properties of policy gradient methods can be extended to various policy parametrizations.
Study examines large deviations in random walks on hyperbolic spaces.
problem Large deviations in random walks on Gromov-hyperbolic spaces.
method Established large deviations results for distance and translation length of random walks.
result Deduced a special case of a conjecture regarding spectral radii of random matrix products.
Study large deviations and speed of random walks in hyperbolic spaces.
problem Understanding the speed of random walks in hyperbolic spaces.
method Large deviations analysis for random walks with a non-elementary semi-group.
result Established large deviations results for random walk distances.
The paper provides a finite-sample deviation bound for stable autoregressive processes.
problem Deviation bounds for least squares estimators in Gaussian AR(n) processes.
method Utilizes martingale concentration inequalities and tail-bound for χ² distributed variables.
result Problem-dependent finite-time bound on the deviation probability of AR(n) process parameters.
Deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation methods.
problem Establishing bounds on the deviation of stochastic approximation methods.
method Martingale approximation method for separately Lipschitz functions.
result Established various deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation by averaging and minimization.
Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated on a single variable. The regime of large deviations is separated from the regi…
Researchers introduce a method to assess the safety of interpretable machine learning models.
problem Ensuring safety in machine learning models that are easy to understand.
method Introduce maximum deviation as an optimization problem to find the largest deviation from a safe reference model.
result Interpretability helps in assessing the safety of machine learning models.
Method detects surgical deviations during laparoscopic rectopexy.
problem Detecting deviations from standard surgical processes during laparoscopic rectopexy.
method Multi-dimensional non-linear temporal scaling with a hidden semi-Markov model.
result Over 90% accuracy in detecting deviations.
The displacement and deviation vectors in spaces (manifolds), the tangent bundle of which is endowed with a transport along paths, are introduced. In case these spaces are equipped with a linear connection, the deviation equations (between arbitrary, geodesic or not, paths) in such spaces are investigated.
New deviation inequalities for multi-armed bandit models.
problem Analyzing adaptive sampling in multi-armed bandit models.
method Constructing mixture martingales based on hierarchical priors.
result Deviation inequalities valid uniformly in time for adaptive sampling.
Large deviation principle for deep neural networks with ReLU activation.
problem Understanding the behavior of deep neural networks with ReLU activation.
method Proving a large deviation principle for networks with Gaussian weights and ReLU activation functions.
result Simplified expressions and power-series expansions for the ReLU case.
Study large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
problem Large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
method Established a small-noise large deviation principle for log-price.
result Logarithmic call price asymptotics for large strikes in a special case.
In these notes, we present some methods and applications of large deviations to finance and insurance. We begin with the classical ruin problem related to the Cramer's theorem and give en extension to an insurance model with investment in stock market. We then describe how large deviation approximation and importance s…
The paper explores optimal insurance contracts using various deviation measures.
problem Optimal insurance contracts with mean-deviation measures.
method Study of convex signed Choquet integrals and standard deviation as deviation measures, analyzing premium principles like expected value, Value-at-Risk, and Expected Shortfall.
result Characterization of optimal indemnities and deductibles under different premium principles.
We establish large deviation principles for convolutional neural networks.
problem Understanding the behavior of convolutional neural networks in the infinite-channel limit.
method We establish large deviation principles for convolutional neural networks under Gaussian prior and posterior distributions.
result We provide a large deviation principle for the sequence of conditional covariance matrices and the posterior distribution.
Paper proposes a new daily benchmark for post-GFC government bond CIP deviations.
problem Lack of a canonical daily benchmark for CIP deviations.
method Used G10 plus KRW currency-tenor panels to analyze three lagged public state variables.
result Three lagged public state variables deliver strong performance in daily regressions.
The paper addresses over-fitting in deep learning models trained on imbalanced data.
problem Over-fitting to minor classes in deep learning models trained on imbalanced data.
method Investigated feature deviation and proposed class-dependent temperatures (CDT) to compensate for it.
result CDT helps in overcoming feature deviation, improving model performance on test data of minor classes.
Study on function sensitivity in random DNNs using large deviation theory.
problem Understanding function sensitivity in finite-size deep neural networks.
method Large deviation theory and path integral analysis applied to random DNNs with ReLU and sign activations.
result Random DNNs with ReLU activations are more robust to parameter perturbations.
Study large deviation principle for fractional stochastic volatility models.
problem Large deviation principle for Volterra type fractional stochastic volatility models.
method Prove a small-noise large deviation principle under weaker conditions.
result Derive large deviation principle in small-time regime.
The paper establishes a connection between different risk measures and their risk contributions.
problem Understanding the relationship between conditional coherent and deviation risk measures.
method Axiomatic framework and continuous-time risk contribution analysis.
result Risk contributions of time-consistent risk measures are also time-consistent.