This paper presents a stochastic behavior analysis of a kernel-based stochastic restricted-gradient descent method. The restricted gradient gives a steepest ascent direction within the so-called dictionary subspace. The analysis provides the transient and steady state performance in the mean squared error criterion. It…
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48 results for “mean-square analysis”
This paper analyzes sampling from heavy-tailed distributions using discretized Itô diffusions.
problem Sampling from heavy-tailed distributions with finite variance.
method Mean-square analysis of discretized Itô diffusions with weighted Poincaré inequalities.
result Explicit iteration complexity for obtaining samples close to target distributions in Wasserstein-2 metric.
Double Q-learning has the same mean-squared error as Q-learning under certain conditions.
problem Comparing the mean-squared error of Double Q-learning and Q-learning.
method Theoretical analysis based on Lyapunov equations for both tabular and linear function approximation settings.
result The asymptotic mean-squared error of Double Q-learning is exactly equal to that of Q-learning under specific conditions.
The purpose of this paper is to indicate that the recently proposed Momentum fractional least mean squares (mFLMS) algorithm has some serious flaws in its design and analysis. Our apprehensions are based on the evidence we found in the derivation and analysis in the paper titled: \textquotedblleft \textit{Momentum frac…
Paper optimizes diffusion models for denoising tasks with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of MSE optimality in diffusion models.
method Inspired by MSE-optimal CME, proposes a novel denoising strategy for diffusion models.
result Demonstrates polynomial-time convergence to the CME under mild conditions.
In this paper, we consider a statistical problem of learning a linear model from noisy samples. Existing work has focused on approximating the least squares solution by using leverage-based scores as an importance sampling distribution. However, no finite sample statistical guarantees and no computationally efficient o…
Improved stock volume prediction using Kalman Filters with various hidden states.
problem Improving accuracy of intraday trading volume prediction.
method Extended Kalman Filter with various hidden states for different stocks, using cross-validation to determine optimal state number.
result Demonstrated improved accuracy through comparison experiments and numerical analysis.
New methods for estimating complex causal effects in econometrics.
problem Estimating causal parameters in short panel data models using nested nonparametric instrumental variable regression.
method Introducing techniques to limit ill-posedness in nested NPIV, providing explicit mean square rates and efficient inference.
result Explicit mean square rates for nested NPIV and efficient inference for causal parameters.
The aim of this paper is to propose distributed strategies for adaptive learning of signals defined over graphs. Assuming the graph signal to be bandlimited, the method enables distributed reconstruction, with guaranteed performance in terms of mean-square error, and tracking from a limited number of sampled observatio…
We analyse the matrix factorization problem. Given a noisy measurement of a product of two matrices, the problem is to estimate back the original matrices. It arises in many applications such as dictionary learning, blind matrix calibration, sparse principal component analysis, blind source separation, low rank matrix …
New method reveals insights about stochastic optimization methods using modified equations.
problem Understanding the qualitative behavior of stochastic optimization algorithms.
method Developed a class of stochastic differential equations to approximate the dynamics of stochastic optimization methods.
result Mean-square stability of the modified equation provides qualitative insights about stochastic coordinate descent.
A Lyapunov Theory for Finite-Sample Guarantees of Asynchronous Q-Learning and TD-Learning Variantscs.LG
Unified framework for finite-sample RL algorithms using Lyapunov theory.
problem Finite-sample convergence guarantees of asynchronous RL algorithms.
method Reformulate RL algorithms as Markovian SA, develop Lyapunov analysis.
result Mean-square error bounds and convergence for various RL algorithms.
We propose a version of least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm for sparse system identification. Our algorithm called online linearized Bregman iteration (OLBI) is derived from minimizing the cumulative prediction error squared along with an l1-l2 norm regularizer. By systematically treating the non-differentiable regulariz…
Asymptotic Analysis of Sampling Estimators for Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra Algorithmsmath.ST
The statistical analysis of Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra (RandNLA) algorithms within the past few years has mostly focused on their performance as point estimators. However, this is insufficient for conducting statistical inference, e.g., constructing confidence intervals and hypothesis testing, since the distri…
Constant Step Size Least-Mean-Square: Bias-Variance Trade-offs and Optimal Sampling Distributionscs.LG
We consider the least-squares regression problem and provide a detailed asymptotic analysis of the performance of averaged constant-step-size stochastic gradient descent (a.k.a. least-mean-squares). In the strongly-convex case, we provide an asymptotic expansion up to explicit exponentially decaying terms. Our analysis…
A machine learning method selects optimal orthonormal bases for functional data analysis.
problem Lack of formal criteria for choosing initial orthonormal bases in functional data methods.
method Proposes a machine learning algorithm to learn and place knots for efficient orthogonal spline bases (splinets).
result Demonstrates efficiency, especially for sparse functional data and complex physical systems.
The most important aspect of any classifier is its error rate, because this quantifies its predictive capacity. Thus, the accuracy of error estimation is critical. Error estimation is problematic in small-sample classifier design because the error must be estimated using the same data from which the classifier has been…
Paper analyzes robustness of data-selective Volterra NLMS algorithm.
problem Robustness analysis of data-selective Volterra NLMS algorithm.
method The paper analyzes the local robustness and proposes a global bound for the error in the coefficient vector.
result The DS-VNLMS algorithm is robust against noise and improves parameter estimation for most iterations.
Mirror Langevin Algorithm converges with zero bias.
problem Achieving convergence with zero bias in discrete-time sampling.
method Discretization of Mirror Langevin Diffusion and mean-square analysis.
result Mirror Langevin Algorithm converges with zero bias.
Robust diffusion adaptive estimation algorithms based on the maximum correntropy criterion (MCC), including adaptation to combination MCC and combination to adaptation MCC, are developed to deal with the distributed estimation over network in impulsive (long-tailed) noise environments. The cost functions used in distri…
Proposes variational autoencoder for efficient MMSE estimation.
problem Efficient parameterized MMSE estimation for noisy observations.
method Variational autoencoder models data distribution, approximates MMSE.
result Proposed estimator performs well compared to state-of-the-art.
The kernel least mean squares (KLMS) algorithm is a computationally efficient nonlinear adaptive filtering method that "kernelizes" the celebrated (linear) least mean squares algorithm. We demonstrate that the least mean squares algorithm is closely related to the Kalman filtering, and thus, the KLMS can be interpreted…
ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or (what economists lable as) white noise as is usual in regression analysis while assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH is inconsistent with uncorrelated increments, violating the i.i.d. and white ass…
The paper analyzes how data augmentation affects the test error in regression models.
problem Understanding the impact of data augmentation on the test error in regression models.
method Characterizes the test error in terms of population quantities and augmentation statistics.
result Provides a tight characterization of the test error in mean squared error.
Constrained adaptive filtering algorithms inculding constrained least mean square (CLMS), constrained affine projection (CAP) and constrained recursive least squares (CRLS) have been extensively studied in many applications. Most existing constrained adaptive filtering algorithms are developed under mean square error (…
Study large deviations rates for SGD with strongly convex functions.
problem High probability metrics with SGD.
method Large deviations theory, generic gradient noise, strongly convex functions.
result Upper large deviations bound for SGD with strongly convex functions.
Network agents solve adaptive regression problems with compressed signals.
problem Solving regression problems in networks with communication constraints.
method ACTC diffusion strategy with randomized differential compression.
result Optimized resource allocation improves performance.
Develops a new method for estimating models with conditional moment restrictions.
problem Estimating models with conditional moment restrictions, especially non-parametric instrumental variable regression.
method Introduces a min-max criterion function to solve a zero-sum game between modeler and adversary, analyzing estimation rates for various hypothesis spaces.
result Shows that with regularization and rich test function spaces, estimation rates scale with the critical radius of hypothesis and test function spaces.
This study calculates the maximum error of a famous estimation method.
problem Estimating rare items not seen in a sample.
method Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
result Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
Nonasymptotic Analysis of Stochastic Gradient Descent with the Richardson-Romberg Extrapolationmath.OC
The paper analyzes SGD with Richardson-Romberg extrapolation for convex optimization problems.
problem Solving strongly convex and smooth minimization problems efficiently.
method Combining SGD with Polyak-Ruppert averaging and Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.
result An expansion of the mean-squared error of the estimator with respect to the number of iterations.
The paper analyzes a simple neural network model with algebraic methods.
problem Finding minima of a ridge-regularized mean squared error for ReLU perceptrons.
method Developed a Divide-Enumerate-Merge strategy using computational algebra.
result Identifies both isolated and connected minima of the RR-MSE.
Paper uses LSTM neural networks to forecast commodity prices.
problem Forecasting accuracy of traditional methods like ARIMA.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks complement traditional methods.
result Forecast averaging of LSTM and ARIMA models improves forecast accuracy.
We consider the problem of how to assign treatment in a randomized experiment, in which the correlation among the outcomes is informed by a network available pre-intervention. Working within the potential outcome causal framework, we develop a class of models that posit such a correlation structure among the outcomes. …
Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Time Series Analysis: The sample of the currency of Kazakhstanq-fin.ST
This paper models yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and compares the actual data with developed forecasts using time series analysis over the period from 2006 to 2014. The official yearly data of National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan is used for present study. The main goal of this paper…
We consider adaptive system identification problems with convex constraints and propose a family of regularized Least-Mean-Square (LMS) algorithms. We show that with a properly selected regularization parameter the regularized LMS provably dominates its conventional counterpart in terms of mean square deviations. We es…
We analyze two communication-efficient algorithms for distributed statistical optimization on large-scale data sets. The first algorithm is a standard averaging method that distributes the data samples evenly to $\nummac$ machines, performs separate minimization on each subset, and then averages the estimates. We p…
New method optimizes tail dependence coefficient estimation.
problem Estimating tail dependence in nonparametric data.
method Optimal threshold selection combining mean squared error and copula estimation.
result Improved accuracy in tail dependence coefficient estimation.
New algorithm reduces variance in stochastic gradient estimation.
problem Optimizing the variance of stochastic gradient algorithms for non-log-concave distributions.
method Developed a Multi-index Antithetic Stochastic Gradient Algorithm (MASGA) that is independent of the distribution's structure.
result MASGA achieves performance comparable to Monte Carlo estimators with unbiased samples.
Nonparametric modeling approaches show very promising results in the area of system identification and control. A naturally provided model confidence is highly relevant for system-theoretical considerations to provide guarantees for application scenarios. Gaussian process regression represents one approach which provid…
The literature provides strong evidence that stock prices can be predicted from past price data. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used mathematical technique for dimensionality reduction and analysis of data by identifying a small number of principal components to explain the variation found in a data set…
Paper proposes efficient algorithms for designing SLOPE penalty sequences.
problem Designing SLOPE penalty sequences is computationally expensive.
method Developed two efficient algorithms: PGD and CD for Gaussian and general data matrices respectively.
result Demonstrated improved mean squared error performance of SLOPE with designed penalties.
New algorithm improves signal reconstruction from noisy measurements with side information.
problem Reconstructing unknown signals from noisy linear measurements with side information.
method Integrates side information into approximate message passing (AMP) and tracks performance using state evolution.
result AMP-SI performance is accurately predicted by state evolution.
New bounds for SA with arbitrary norm contractions and Markovian noise.
problem Finite-time analysis of two-time-scale stochastic approximation with arbitrary norm contractions and Markovian noise.
method Use of generalized Moreau envelope for arbitrary norm contractions and solutions of Poisson equation for Markovian noise.
result Mean square error decays at rates of and under different conditions.
The Matérn covariance function is a popular choice for prediction in spatial statistics and uncertainty quantification literature. A key benefit of the Matérn class is that it is possible to get precise control over the degree of mean-square differentiability of the random process. However, the Matérn class possesses e…
The kernel least-mean-square (KLMS) algorithm is an appealing tool for online identification of nonlinear systems due to its simplicity and robustness. In addition to choosing a reproducing kernel and setting filter parameters, designing a KLMS adaptive filter requires to select a so-called dictionary in order to get a…
Adaptive filtering algorithms operating in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces have demonstrated superiority over their linear counterpart for nonlinear system identification. Unfortunately, an undesirable characteristic of these methods is that the order of the filters grows linearly with the number of input data. This …
Cryptocurrency prices predicted using LSTM, SVM, and polynomial regression.
problem Uncertainty in crypto coin values.
method Long Short Term Memory, Support Vector Machine, Polynomial Regression models.
result Support Vector Machine with linear kernel had the smallest mean square error.
A novel approach is put forth that utilizes data similarity, quantified on a graph, to improve upon the reconstruction performance of principal component analysis. The tasks of data dimensionality reduction and reconstruction are formulated as graph filtering operations, that enable the exploitation of data node connec…