Recent studies have shown that online portfolio selection strategies that exploit the mean reversion property can achieve excess return from equity markets. This paper empirically investigates the performance of state-of-the-art mean reversion strategies on real market data. The aims of the study are twofold. The first…
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48 results for “mean-reversion”
A new trading strategy using reinforcement learning for statistical arbitrage.
problem Traditional statistical arbitrage models rely on model assumptions and price deviations from a long-term mean.
method Empirical reversion time metric, reinforcement learning framework, and state space optimization.
result Optimal mean reversion strategy identified through reinforcement learning.
Consider the problem of pricing options on forwards in energy markets, when spot prices follow a geometric multi-factor model in which several rates of mean reversion appear. In this paper we investigate the role played by slow mean reversion when pricing and hedging options. In particular, we determine both upper and …
Mean-Reversion and Optimizationq-fin.PM
The purpose of these notes is to provide a systematic quantitative framework - in what is intended to be a "pedagogical" fashion - for discussing mean-reversion and optimization. We start with pair trading and add complexity by following the sequence "mean-reversion via demeaning -> regression -> weighted regression ->…
On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to …
Symmetry classification and invariant solutions of the classical geometric mean reversion processmath.DS
Investigates geometric mean reversion process using Lie symmetry method.
problem Describes dynamics of short-term interest rates.
method Lie symmetry method and optimal system of invariant solutions.
result Constructs an optimal system of invariant solutions.
Trading multiple mean reversionq-fin.MF
Solves optimal control for trading multiple mean-reverting assets.
problem How to construct a portfolio from mean-reverting assets.
method Optimal control problem for power utility agent.
result Nearly explicit solution with properties of optimal solution.
Improved calibration of HJM models using small volatility approximation.
problem Calibration issues in HJM models with deterministic correlations and mean reversals.
method Use of Small Volatility Approximation in calibration of Multi-Factor HJM models.
result Calibration quality is very good and independent of the number of factors.
Optimizing Returns Using the Hurst Exponent and Q Learning on Momentum and Mean Reversion Strategiesq-fin.ST
Optimizes trading returns using Hurst exponent and Q-learning.
problem Maximizing returns from momentum and mean reversion strategies.
method Classifies assets using Hurst exponent and uses Q-learning to improve trading algorithms.
result Trading with Hurst exponent can achieve higher returns but at higher risk.
In a market with a rough or Markovian mean-reverting stochastic volatility there is no perfect hedge. Here it is shown how various delta-type hedging strategies perform and can be evaluated in such markets in the case of European options. A precise characterization of the hedging cost, the replication cost caused by th…
This paper applies DRL to mean reversion trading problems.
problem Adopting DRL for financial trading problems.
method Integrates function properties into DRL for mean reversion trading.
result Demonstrates a highly-performant DRL solution for financial decision-making.
Develops a martingale expansion for stochastic volatility models.
problem Approximating marginal distributions of stochastic volatility models.
method Martingale expansion framework for continuous stochastic volatility models.
result First-order perturbation expansions for small volatility-of-volatility and fast mean-reversion models.
Entropy of the Nordic electricity market: anomalous scaling, spikes, and mean-reversionphysics.soc-ph
The electricity market is a very peculiar market due to the large variety of phenomena that can affect the spot price. However, this market still shows many typical features of other speculative (commodity) markets like, for instance, data clustering and mean reversion. We apply the diffusion entropy analysis (DEA) to …
In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic differential equation with piecewise constant coefficients, which accounts of leverage a…
Study finds IBS useful for predicting ETF price movements.
problem Predicting short-term price movements in country ETFs.
method Quantitative analysis of historical price data using Mean Reversion.
result IBS can be a useful technical indicator for ETFs.
We consider an SPDE description of a large portfolio limit model where the underlying asset prices evolve according to certain stochastic volatility models with default upon hitting a lower barrier. The asset prices and their volatilities are correlated via systemic Brownian motions, and the resulting SPDE is defined o…
We use commutator techniques and calculations in solvable Lie groups to investigate certain evolution Partial Differential Equations (PDEs for short) that arise in the study of stochastic volatility models for pricing contingent claims on risky assets. In particular, by restricting to domains of bounded volatility, we …
This paper considers the mean-reverting portfolio design problem arising from statistical arbitrage in the financial markets. We first propose a general problem formulation aimed at finding a portfolio of underlying component assets by optimizing a mean-reversion criterion characterizing the mean-reversion strength, ta…
We find stationary distributions in a financial model with trends and mean-reversion.
problem Financial markets with competing trends and mean-reversion.
method Analytical derivation of stationary distributions in various noise and feedback regimes.
result The distributions are unimodal Gaussians in small noise, small feedback limits, but can be bimodal for stronger trends.
A model-free method analyzes trading strategies using excursion paths.
problem Analyzing risk and return for dynamic trading strategies without probabilistic assumptions.
method Pathwise analysis of trading signals using δ-excursions.
result Continuous paths can be uniquely decomposed into δ-excursions.
This paper studies the optimal VIX futures trading problems under a regime-switching model. We consider the VIX as mean reversion dynamics with dependence on the regime that switches among a finite number of states. For the trading strategies, we analyze the timings and sequences of the investor's market participation,…
In electricity markets, it is sensible to use a two-factor model with mean reversion for spot prices. One of the factors is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process driven by a Brownian motion and accounts for the small variations. The other factor is an OU process driven by a pure jump Lévy process and models the characteri…
Study shows price bubbles can exist even with heterogeneous beliefs.
problem Equilibrium price formation in markets with different belief groups.
method Analyzes continuous time asset trading with heterogeneous investors and mean reverting asset.
result Price bubbles may not form even with heterogeneous beliefs, contrary to initial expectations.
Pairs trading strategy fails to outperform market benchmarks, but performs well during bear markets.
problem The validity of pairs trading as a profitable strategy in modern markets.
method Used common distance and cointegration methods on US equities from 1990 to 2020, including the Covid-19 crisis.
result The pairs trading strategy does not consistently outperform market benchmarks, but performs well during bear markets.
The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between the return of an asset and the changes in its volatility. There is broad agreement in the literature that the effect should be present for theoretical reasons, and it has been consistently found in empirical work. However, a few papers have pointe…
A new method simulates square-root processes efficiently.
problem Simulating square-root processes accurately and efficiently.
method Simulate the integrated square-root process instead of the square-root process itself.
result High precision with low number of time steps, and exact limiting Inverse Gaussian distributions.
Optimal trend-following strategy uses simple EMA, avoiding complex cherry-picked signals.
problem Cherry-picking signals for trend-following strategies.
method Simple EMA for trend capture, avoiding complex indicators.
result Simple EMA is optimal for capturing trend, complex indicators are risky.
Optimal trading strategy using LQR framework with price mean-reversion.
problem Developing a dynamic trading strategy in a market with linear and quadratic costs.
method Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach to optimize trading curve with positivity constraints.
result Optimal trading curve reacts opportunistically to price changes while satisfying constraints.
We consider a system of diffusion processes that interact through their empirical mean and have a stabilizing force acting on each of them, corresponding to a bistable potential. There are three parameters that characterize the system: the strength of the intrinsic stabilization, the strength of the external random per…
This paper is concerned with the following Markovian stochastic differential equation of mean-reversion type \[ dR_t= (θ+σα(R_t, t))R_t dt +σR_t dB_t \] with an initial value , where and are constants, and the mean correction function $α:\mathbb{R}\times[0,\infty)\to α(x,t)\…
We investigate a generalized stochastic model with the property known as mean reversion, that is, the tendency to relax towards a historical reference level. Besides this property, the dynamics is driven by multiplicative and additive Wiener processes. While the former is modulated by the internal behavior of the syste…
The study finds that factor momentum is significant only at short lags compared to stock momentum.
problem Investigating the relationship between factor momentum and stock momentum.
method Replicated earlier findings and conducted a spanning test controlling for stock momentum and factor exposure.
result Factor momentum is significant only at short lags after controlling for stock momentum and factor exposure.
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with respectively the trade arrival self-excitation, the price changes mean reversion…
Optimizes trading large volumes of volatile assets with fast mean-reverting volatility.
problem Challenges of executing large volumes of illiquid or volatile assets.
method Modeling uncertain volatility and liquidity with fast mean-reverting dynamics, using singular perturbation arguments and high-frequency data.
result Approximately optimal trade execution strategies under fast mean-reversion.
Statistical arbitrage is a class of financial trading strategies using mean reversion models. The corresponding techniques rely on a number of assumptions which may not hold for general non-stationary stochastic processes. This paper presents an alternative technique for statistical arbitrage based on online learning w…
We study the profitability of optimal mean reversion trading strategies in the US equity market. Different from regular pair trading practice, we apply maximum likelihood method to construct the optimal static pairs trading portfolio that best fits the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and rigorously estimate the parameters.…
A new model reconciles rough volatility and jumps.
problem Combining rough volatility and jump processes.
method Developed a reversionary Heston model with fast mean reversions and large vol-of-vols.
result The reversionary Heston model converges to Lévy jump processes for certain values of the parameter.
A new test evaluates risk estimation accuracy using probability integral transform.
problem Measuring the accuracy of financial market risk estimations.
method Probability Integral Transform (PIT) of ex post realized returns against ex ante probability distributions.
result The new test shows the importance of capturing the dynamic of financial markets.
We introduce a new stochastic model for the variations of asset prices at the tick-by-tick level in dimension 1 (for a single asset) and 2 (for a pair of assets). The construction is based on marked point processes and relies on linear self and mutually exciting stochastic intensities as introduced by Hawkes. We associ…
Altcoin-Bitcoin Arbitrageq-fin.PM
We give an algorithm and source code for a cryptoasset statistical arbitrage alpha based on a mean-reversion effect driven by the leading momentum factor in cryptoasset returns discussed in https://ssrn.com/abstract=3245641. Using empirical data, we identify the cross-section of cryptoassets for which this altcoin-Bitc…
Hybrid AI system combines technical, sentiment analysis for adaptive equity trading.
problem Traditional trading strategies fail during high volatility and regime shifts.
method Combines trend-following, mean-reversion, sentiment analysis, machine learning, and market regime filtering.
result Hybrid model achieved 135.49% return on investment over 24 months.
Study reveals different drivers of electricity price volatility across Europe.
problem Understanding the drivers of electricity price volatility across different European zones.
method Developed estimators of weekly integrated variance using a stochastic partial differential equation approach, accounting for mean-reversion and semigroup-smoothing.
result Each European generation zone has distinct drivers of volatility, and leverage effects are not generally asymmetric.
New GP kernels avoid mean reversion without losing smoothness.
problem Pathological behavior in stationary GP regression.
method Improper Gaussian processes with non-positive kernels.
result Stationary, non-reverting covariance functions.
Be Water: An Evolutionary Proof for Trend-Followingphysics.soc-ph
Trend-following strategies outperform in a noisy financial market, mirroring ancient wisdom.
problem Navigating the complex, noisy financial market environment.
method Agent-based model with 10,000 agents representing different trading strategies.
result Trend-following strategies are structurally more robust than mean-reversion strategies.
Virtual volatilityphysics.soc-ph
We introduce the concept of virtual volatility. This simple but new measure shows how to quantify the uncertainty in the forecast of the drift component of a random walk. The virtual volatility also is a useful tool in understanding the stochastic process for a given portfolio. In particular, and as an example, we were…
End-to-end policy learning improves statistical arbitrage trading.
problem Traditional mean reversion trading strategies in statistical arbitrage are limited.
method We use Autoencoder architectures and policy learning to develop trading strategies.
result End-to-end training yields superior gross returns.
Pricing cryptocurrencies : Modelling the ETHBTC spot-quotient variation as a diffusion processq-fin.PR
Modeling cryptocurrency spot-quotient variation as a diffusion process.
problem Intraday variation between ETHBTC spot and quotients on Binance.
method Modeling variation as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, testing for mean-reversion, using maximum likelihood estimation.
result Intraday variation is not constant at 0, showing mean-reversion behavior with larger deviations in the first year.
We propose a dynamic mean field model for `systemic risk' in large financial systems, which we derive from a system of interacting diffusions on the positive half-line with an absorbing boundary at the origin. These diffusions represent the distances-to-default of financial institutions and absorption at zero correspon…