We study the parameter estimation problem in mixture models with observational nonidentifiability: the full model (also containing hidden variables) is identifiable, but the marginal (observed) model is not. Hence global maxima of the marginal likelihood are (infinitely) degenerate and predictions of the marginal likel…
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48 results for “maximum marginal likelihood”
We consider two connected aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter for high-dimensional discrete graphical models: the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (mle) and its computation. When the data is sparse, there are many zeros in the contingency table and the maximum likelihood estimate of th…
New algorithm improves latent variable model estimation.
problem Estimating parameters in latent variable models.
method Jarzynski-adjusted Langevin algorithm (JALA) for SMC methods.
result JALA-EM provides maximum marginal likelihood estimate.
Graphical models with bi-directed edges (<->) represent marginal independence: the absence of an edge between two vertices indicates that the corresponding variables are marginally independent. In this paper, we consider maximum likelihood estimation in the case of continuous variables with a Gaussian joint distributio…
Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of max-margin supervised topic models for both continuous and categorical response var…
We define a generalized likelihood function based on uncertainty measures and show that maximizing such a likelihood function for different measures induces different types of classifiers. In the probabilistic framework, we obtain classifiers that optimize the cross-entropy function. In the possibilistic framework, we …
We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a relaxation of the marginal likelihood obtained by considering the density of the variable…
Bayesian networks with latent variables are characterized and their likelihoods compared.
problem Characterizing and comparing likelihoods of Bayesian networks with latent variables.
method Characterized likelihood function and empirical Bayesian network. Proved dominance of global maximum likelihood from empirical model.
result The global maximum likelihood of the original Bayesian network is attained if and only if parameters are consistent with empirical model.
We give polynomial-time algorithms for the exact computation of lowest-energy (ground) states, worst margin violators, log partition functions, and marginal edge probabilities in certain binary undirected graphical models. Our approach provides an interesting alternative to the well-known graph cut paradigm in that it …
Improved Gaussian process regression with tighter log marginal likelihood bounds.
problem Improving predictive performance in Gaussian process regression models.
method Lower bound on log marginal likelihood using conjugate gradients.
result Improved predictive performance compared to other conjugate gradient based approaches.
New method learns latent energy models using particle algorithms.
problem Learning latent variable models with energy priors.
method Continuous-time SDEs for MMLE, particle-based discretization.
result Practical algorithm converges to solve MMLE problem.
New algorithms learn latent variable models without tuning, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning latent variable models without manual tuning.
method Two particle-based algorithms using free energy minimization and coin betting.
result Learning algorithms are entirely tuning-free and competitive with existing methods.
We present novel understandings of the Gamma-Poisson (GaP) model, a probabilistic matrix factorization model for count data. We show that GaP can be rewritten free of the score/activation matrix. This gives us new insights about the estimation of the topic/dictionary matrix by maximum marginal likelihood estimation. In…
We consider distributed estimation of the inverse covariance matrix, also called the concentration or precision matrix, in Gaussian graphical models. Traditional centralized estimation often requires global inference of the covariance matrix, which can be computationally intensive in large dimensions. Approximate infer…
The normalized maximized likelihood (NML) provides the minimax regret solution in universal data compression, gambling, and prediction, and it plays an essential role in the minimum description length (MDL) method of statistical modeling and estimation. Here we show that the normalized maximum likelihood has a Bayes-li…
Ultrahigh-dimensional variable selection plays an increasingly important role in contemporary scientific discoveries and statistical research. Among others, Fan and Lv [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 70 (2008) 849-911] propose an independent screening framework by ranking the marginal correlations. They showed…
Develops a new algorithm for estimating model parameters using interacting particle systems.
problem Estimating parameters of latent variable models.
method Interacting Particle Langevin Algorithm (IPLA) based on Langevin diffusion.
result Nonasymptotic optimisation error bounds for the estimator.
A scalable method for estimating spatial data using VREML.
problem Costly computation of REML for large, sparse precision matrices in spatial data.
method Proposes VREML framework approximating marginal likelihood with Gaussian variational distribution and deriving a coordinate-ascent algorithm.
result Empirically shows VREML outperforms MLE and INLA.
New CTRL algorithm adapts to varying problem difficulty.
problem Adapting to varying levels of problem difficulty in CTRL.
method MLE with a general function approximator, estimating state marginal density.
result Regret bound scales with reward variance and measurement resolution, independent of measurement strategy.
Identifies interpretable generative model for multivariate data.
problem Black-box architectures of deep generative models are often unidentified and difficult to interpret.
method Introduces Deep Discrete Encoder (DDE) Copula, a hierarchical binary latent variable model inside a copula framework.
result Establishes conditions for identification of DDE copula parameters and proves posterior consistency.
Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this paper, the inference process is first defined to be the minimization of a convex f…
New SMC samplers improve stochastic optimisation efficiency.
problem Optimizing functions with intractable gradients in machine learning and statistics.
method Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers for stochastic optimisation.
result Significant computational gains achieved with SMC approximations.
New insights into using IPF for inferring dynamic networks from marginals.
problem Inferring dynamic networks from time-aggregated adjacency matrices and time-varying marginals.
method Identifying a generative network model and establishing its maximum likelihood estimates via IPF, with convergence guarantees for sparse data.
result IPF provides principled estimation of dynamic networks from marginals under certain conditions, with structure-dependent error bounds and guaranteed convergence for sparse data.
Accelerates MMLE using SVGD with Nesterov acceleration.
problem Maximum Marginal Likelihood Estimation optimization.
method Stein variational gradient descent with Nesterov acceleration.
result Consistently accelerates convergence across various tasks.
Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.
problem Bayesian inference's computational costs and posterior predictive distribution marginalization.
method Variational Prediction learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution using a variational bound.
result Directly learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution without test time marginalization costs.
Algorithms for Gaussian process, marginal likelihood methods or restricted maximum likelihood methods often require derivatives of log determinant terms. These log determinants are usually parametric with variance parameters of the underlying statistical models. This paper demonstrates that, when the underlying matrix …
Maximum likelihood estimator performance in logistic regression analyzed.
problem Performance of maximum likelihood estimator in logistic regression.
method Sharp non-asymptotic guarantees for existence and excess logistic risk.
result Sharp guarantees for the existence and excess risk of MLE in logistic regression.
Our goal is to learn a semantic parser that maps natural language utterances into executable programs when only indirect supervision is available: examples are labeled with the correct execution result, but not the program itself. Consequently, we must search the space of programs for those that output the correct resu…
This research improves neural network representation identifiability through task structures.
problem Improving neural network representation identifiability in multi-task settings.
method Analyzing the effects of task distributions and causal structures on latent factors, leading to simpler optimization.
result A straightforward optimization procedure enables better representation recovery in both synthetic and real-world data.
A new method estimates marginal likelihood using normalizing flows.
problem Estimating marginal likelihood in Bayesian model selection.
method Learned harmonic mean estimator using normalizing flows.
result Normalizing flows avoid the exploding variance problem.
Unbiased gradient estimation improves VAE performance.
problem Training VAEs via maximum likelihood is difficult due to intractable integrals.
method Introduced unbiased estimators of the log-likelihood gradient using coupled Markov chains.
result Unbiased estimators lead to better predictive performance in VAEs.
The paper analyzes SBL pruning criteria under weakened assumptions.
problem Sparse Bayesian learning hyperparameter divergence and pruning.
method Analyzing marginal likelihood function under weakened Gaussian assumptions.
result Conditions for finite vs infinite hyperparameters lead to F-SBL pruning.
Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving approximate inference over the latent variables by minimizing a tight upper bound on …
Efficiently marginalizes over Gaussian Process kernels for better model flexibility and uncertainty.
problem Inefficient marginalization over Gaussian Process kernels for large datasets.
method Bayesian Quadrature scheme with maximum mean discrepancies and invariances between Spectral Mixture kernels.
result Achieves more accurate predictions and better calibrated uncertainty than state-of-the-art baselines.
A new method models volatile financial time series using v-transforms and copulas.
problem Modeling volatile financial time series with standard methods.
method v-transforms and copulas to describe and estimate time series with arbitrary marginal distributions and copula dynamics.
result The model replicates stylized facts of financial return series and facilitates risk quantification.
We address the problem of learning the parameters in graphical models when inference is intractable. A common strategy in this case is to replace the partition function with its Bethe approximation. We show that there exists a regime of empirical marginals where such Bethe learning will fail. By failure we mean that th…
Optimization results are one method for understanding neural computation from Nature's perspective and for defining the physical limits on neuron-like engineering. Earlier work looks at individual properties or performance criteria and occasionally a combination of two, such as energy and information. Here we make use …
Bayesian evidence helps compare models but can overfit.
problem Comparing hypotheses consistent with observations.
method Marginal likelihood, Occam's razor, PAC-Bayes bounds.
result Marginal likelihood can negatively correlate with generalization.
A new copula estimation method using classification.
problem Estimating copula density from joint and marginal distributions.
method Train a classifier to distinguish joint density from product of marginals.
result Empirically outperforms existing copula estimators.
Proposes a new method for high-dimensional density estimation.
problem Estimating high-dimensional probability density functions efficiently.
method Tensorizing flow method combining tensor-train and flow-based generative modeling.
result Efficiently constructs an approximate density in tensor-train form and trains a flow model to match empirical distribution.
Posterior collapse in Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) arises when the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior for a subset of latent variables. This paper presents a simple and intuitive explanation for posterior collapse through the analysis of linear VAEs and their direct correspondence with Prob…
New method estimates marginal likelihood for deep learning models using training data alone.
problem Estimation difficulties in marginal likelihood for model selection in deep learning.
method Scalable marginal likelihood estimation based on Laplace's method and Gauss-Newton approximations.
result Estimate outperforms cross-validation and manual tuning on various datasets.
Training deep generative models with maximum likelihood remains a challenge. The typical workaround is to use variational inference (VI) and maximize a lower bound to the log marginal likelihood of the data. Variational auto-encoders (VAEs) adopt this approach. They further amortize the cost of inference by using a rec…
Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, by evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned mod…
When used as a surrogate objective for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) produces state-of-the-art results. Inspired by this, we consider the extension of the ELBO to a family of lower bounds defined by a particle filter's estimator of the marginal likelihood, the …
Proposes SGM for modeling complex dependencies in high-dimensional systems.
problem Limited pairwise interactions in PGMs for high-dimensional systems.
method Simplicial Gaussian model (SGM) using discrete Hodge theory and independent random components.
result Maximum-likelihood inference algorithm for parameter recovery and conditional dependence structure.
This paper introduces Kernel-based Information Criterion (KIC) for model selection in regression analysis. The novel kernel-based complexity measure in KIC efficiently computes the interdependency between parameters of the model using a variable-wise variance and yields selection of better, more robust regressors. Expe…
A simple graphical model for correlated defaults is proposed, with explicit formulas for the loss distribution. Algebraic geometry techniques are employed to show that this model is well posed for default dependence: it represents any given marginal distribution for single firms and pairwise correlation matrix. These t…