A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We consider the problem of training probabilistic conditional random fields (CRFs) in the context of a task where performance is measured using a specific loss function. While maximum likelihood is the most common approach to training CRFs, it ignores the inherent structure of the task's loss function. We describe alte…
This work investigates training infinite mixtures with maximum likelihood for improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification in neural networks.
method Investigates training infinite mixtures with maximum likelihood instead of variational inference.
result The proposed method leads to stochastic networks with increased predictive variance, improved robustness, and higher entropy on out-of-distribution data.
Innovative game theory approach optimizes survival analysis metrics.
problem Survival analysis models trained with maximum likelihood do not directly optimize criteria like Brier score or Bernoulli log likelihood.
method Inverse-Weighted Survival Games: Construct objectives from re-weighted estimates featuring the other model, holding the latter fixed during training.
result Games optimize Brier score on simulations and real-world data.
Connectionist temporal classification (CTC) is widely used for maximum likelihood learning in end-to-end speech recognition models. However, there is usually a disparity between the negative maximum likelihood and the performance metric used in speech recognition, e.g., word error rate (WER). This results in a mismatch…
With an eye towards human-centered automation, we contribute to the development of a systematic means to infer features of human decision-making from behavioral data. Motivated by the common use of softmax selection in models of human decision-making, we study the maximum likelihood parameter estimation problem for sof…
Modern applications and progress in deep learning research have created renewed interest for generative models of text and of images. However, even today it is unclear what objective functions one should use to train and evaluate these models. In this paper we present two contributions. Firstly, we present a critique o…
We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most lik…
Label shift refers to the phenomenon where the prior class probability p(y) changes between the training and test distributions, while the conditional probability p(x|y) stays fixed. Label shift arises in settings like medical diagnosis, where a classifier trained to predict disease given symptoms must be adapted to sc…
When used as a surrogate objective for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) produces state-of-the-art results. Inspired by this, we consider the extension of the ELBO to a family of lower bounds defined by a particle filter's estimator of the marginal likelihood, the …
There are many models, often called unnormalized models, whose normalizing constants are not calculated in closed form. Maximum likelihood estimation is not directly applicable to unnormalized models. Score matching, contrastive divergence method, pseudo-likelihood, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, and noise contrastive…
This paper proposes a new RV prediction model using neural distributional transformation and co-training.
problem Predicting skewed and fat-tailed realized volatility (RV) is challenging.
method The paper uses a neural distributional transformation and co-training to predict RV. It jointly trains the transformation and prediction model using a maximum-likelihood objective function.
result The proposed method significantly outperforms other methods on a dataset of 100 stocks.
Maximum likelihood estimation of energy-based models is a challenging problem due to the intractability of the log-likelihood gradient. In this work, we propose learning both the energy function and an amortized approximate sampling mechanism using a neural generator network, which provides an efficient approximation o…
Maximum likelihood estimation fails to be well-posed in Gaussian process regression.
problem Establishing well-posedness of maximum likelihood estimation in Gaussian process regression.
method Analyzing the conditions under which maximum likelihood estimation is not Lipschitz in the data with respect to the Hellinger distance.
result Maximum likelihood estimation is not well-posed in the noiseless data setting for any Gaussian process with a stationary covariance function whose lengthscale parameter is estimated using maximum likelihood.
Adversarial learning of probabilistic models has recently emerged as a promising alternative to maximum likelihood. Implicit models such as generative adversarial networks (GAN) often generate better samples compared to explicit models trained by maximum likelihood. Yet, GANs sidestep the characterization of an explici…
We propose a new neural sequence model training method in which the objective function is defined by α-divergence. We demonstrate that the objective function generalizes the maximum-likelihood (ML)-based and reinforcement learning (RL)-based objective functions as special cases (i.e., ML corresponds to α→0 and R…
Many machine learning tasks can be formulated in terms of predicting structured outputs. In frameworks such as the structured support vector machine (SVM-Struct) and the structured perceptron, discriminative functions are learned by iteratively applying efficient maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding. However, maximum li…
We prove that stochastic gradient descent efficiently converges to the global optimizer of the maximum likelihood objective of an unknown linear time-invariant dynamical system from a sequence of noisy observations generated by the system. Even though the objective function is non-convex, we provide polynomial running …
We propose a novel method for maximum likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate the value of the log-likelihood function at the current parameter iterate. Using …
In recent work on both generative and discriminative score to log-likelihood-ratio calibration, it was shown that linear transforms give good accuracy only for a limited range of operating points. Moreover, these methods required tailoring of the calibration training objective functions in order to target the desired r…
We consider two connected aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter for high-dimensional discrete graphical models: the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (mle) and its computation. When the data is sparse, there are many zeros in the contingency table and the maximum likelihood estimate of th…