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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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2795588361,115 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for maximum generalized covariance

Maximum likelihood estimator performance in logistic regression analyzed.

problem Performance of maximum likelihood estimator in logistic regression.
method Sharp non-asymptotic guarantees for existence and excess logistic risk.
result Sharp guarantees for the existence and excess risk of MLE in logistic regression.

The covariance of a stationary process XX is diagonalized by a Fourier transform. It does not take into account the complex Fourier phase and defines Gaussian maximum entropy models. We introduce a general family of phase harmonic covariance moments, which rely on complex phases to capture non-Gaussian properties. The…

2019-11-22abs ↗pdf ↗

A new ranking model with dynamic covariates improves statistical analysis.

problem Statistical ranking with varying covariates across comparisons.
method Introduced a Plackett--Luce framework for covariate-assisted ranking, providing conditions for model identifiability and MLE existence, and developing an alternating maximization algorithm.
result Uniform consistency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) under suitable assumptions on graph design and covariates.

Maximum likelihood estimation fails to be well-posed in Gaussian process regression.

problem Establishing well-posedness of maximum likelihood estimation in Gaussian process regression.
method Analyzing the conditions under which maximum likelihood estimation is not Lipschitz in the data with respect to the Hellinger distance.
result Maximum likelihood estimation is not well-posed in the noiseless data setting for any Gaussian process with a stationary covariance function whose lengthscale parameter is estimated using maximum likelihood.

PACE-GGM uses Gaussian mechanism for private covariance estimation.

problem Private estimation of covariance matrices in high dimensions.
method Data-adaptive selection of entries, Gaussian mechanism, maximum-entropy reconstruction.
result Consistent improvements in estimation error compared to Gaussian mechanism and baselines.

This paper studies iteration convergence of Kronecker graphical lasso (KGLasso) algorithms for estimating the covariance of an i.i.d. Gaussian random sample under a sparse Kronecker-product covariance model and MSE convergence rates. The KGlasso model, originally called the transposable regularized covariance model by …

2012-04-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Given i.i.d. observations of a random vector XRpX \in \mathbb{R}^p, we study the problem of estimating both its covariance matrix ΣΣ^*, and its inverse covariance or concentration matrix {Θ=(Σ)1Θ^* = (Σ^*)^{-1}.} We estimate ΘΘ^* by minimizing an 1\ell_1-penalized log-determinant Bregman divergence; in the multivariate G…

2008-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for state estimation in state-space models using incomplete data.

problem State estimation in nonlinear state-space models with incomplete observations.
method Statistical analysis of incomplete observations, score function, observed information matrices, EM-gradient-particle filtering.
result Maximum likelihood estimation of state-vector with explicit form of observed information matrix.

Neural networks speed up covariance estimation in spatial Gaussian processes.

problem Efficiently estimating covariance parameters in spatial Gaussian processes.
method Training neural networks to approximate maximum likelihood estimates.
result Neural network estimates are as accurate as ML methods but much faster.

Bayesian model averaging fails under covariate shift, affecting neural networks' performance.

problem Bayesian model averaging's failure in neural networks under covariate shift.
method Explained the issue and proposed novel priors to improve robustness.
result Bayesian model averaging is problematic under covariate shift, especially with linear feature dependencies.

Paper proposes a robust test for high-dimensional models with large covariates and instruments.

problem Testing high-dimensional linear instrumental variable models with large covariates and instruments.
method Introduces a test based on the maximum norm of multiple parameters and a power-enhanced test.
result The proposed test is robust to heteroskedastic errors and has higher power than existing tests.

New findings on optimization landscape of Toeplitz covariance estimation.

problem Understanding the geometry of the Gaussian maximum-likelihood objective for Toeplitz covariance estimation.
method Overparameterized Carathéodory representation of positive definite Toeplitz covariance matrices, focusing on both amplitudes and frequencies.
result Joint optimization of amplitudes and frequencies leads to a benign population landscape, allowing for global recovery of the true Toeplitz covariance.

Bayesian framework for analyzing heterogeneous covariance data with a novel MoE-Wishart model.

problem Analyzing complex multivariate systems with varying covariance structures.
method Comprehensive Bayesian framework using mixture-of-experts Wishart model with predictor-dependent mixture weights.
result Accurate subpopulation recovery and estimation in heterogeneous covariance scenarios.

We consider robust covariance estimation with group symmetry constraints. Non-Gaussian covariance estimation, e.g., Tyler scatter estimator and Multivariate Generalized Gaussian distribution methods, usually involve non-convex minimization problems. Recently, it was shown that the underlying principle behind their succ…

2013-06-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks can generalize well even with perfect fits to noisy data.

problem Understanding the conditions under which deep neural networks generalize well in the presence of noise.
method Comprehensive study of linear maximum margin classifiers, focusing on noisy and noiseless cases.
result Discovery of a phase transition in test error bounds for the noisy model.

Paper tackles backwards-compatible data adaptation for confounded covariate and label shifts.

problem Adapt covariates to predict labels confounded with covariate shifts.
method Proposes confounded shift framework based on minimizing divergence between source and target conditional distributions, conditioning on confounders.
result Demonstrates approach on synthetic and real datasets, achieving backwards-compatible data adaptation.

Exact recovery method for community detection in Gaussian mixtures with dependent noise.

problem Community detection in Gaussian mixtures with dependent and heterogeneous noise.
method Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for constrained quadratic optimization problem, using ΣΣ-whitened separation and local inequalities.
result Sharp exact-recovery threshold and no-gap mechanism in the unknown-size setting.

Develops a nonparametric method to estimate isotropic covariance functions efficiently.

problem Estimating isotropic covariance functions without assuming a specific parametric form.
method Uses Bernstein polynomials and sieve maximum likelihood estimation.
result Consistent estimator with improved performance compared to parametric and nonparametric alternatives.

Traditional Kalman filter (KF) is derived under the well-known minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion, which is optimal under Gaussian assumption. However, when the signals are non-Gaussian, especially when the system is disturbed by some heavy-tailed impulsive noises, the performance of KF will deteriorate serious…

2015-09-15abs ↗pdf ↗

The only input to attain the portfolio weights of global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) is the covariance matrix of returns of assets being considered for investment. Since the population covariance matrix is not known, investors use historical data to estimate it. Even though sample covariance matrix is an unbiased…

2020-01-09abs ↗pdf ↗

A new nonparametric approach for system identification has been recently proposed where the impulse response is modeled as the realization of a zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) has to be estimated from data. In this scheme, quality of the estimates crucially depends on the parametrization of the cov…

2014-11-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a new algorithm for graph learning with covariance constraints.

problem Graphical models and factor analysis not jointly leveraged in graph learning processes.
method Penalized maximum likelihood estimation of an elliptical distribution with Riemannian optimization.
result Effectiveness of the proposed approach demonstrated on real-world data sets.

Geometric families of low-rank covariances improve flexibility and tractability in high dimensions.

problem Interpolating and identifying covariance matrices in high dimensions with limited data.
method Differential geometric construction of low-rank covariance families, interpolation on manifolds, and distance minimization for identification.
result Differential geometric covariance families offer significant flexibility and computational tractability.

The unscented transformation (UT) is an efficient method to solve the state estimation problem for a non-linear dynamic system, utilizing a derivative-free higher-order approximation by approximating a Gaussian distribution rather than approximating a non-linear function. Applying the UT to a Kalman filter type estimat…

2016-08-26abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper examines extreme value statistics of high-dimensional sample covariances, with applications in finance and image analysis.

problem Statistical validation of normal conditions in high-dimensional time series data.
method Generalizes the maximal deviation of sample autocovariances to high dimensions and applies Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics.
result Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics holds true for high-dimensional sample covariances.

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise, Sigma = (sigma^2)*I. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situa…

2011-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Statistical modeling of spatiotemporal phenomena often requires selecting a covariance matrix from a covariance class. Yet standard parametric covariance families can be insufficiently flexible for practical applications, while non-parametric approaches may not easily allow certain kinds of prior knowledge to be incorp…

2020-01-06abs ↗pdf ↗

One of the most fundamental problems in network study is community detection. The stochastic block model (SBM) is a widely used model, for which various estimation methods have been developed with their community detection consistency results unveiled. However, the SBM is restricted by the strong assumption that all no…

2018-07-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved autoregressive models generate higher quality images and are more robust to noise.

problem Generating high-quality images from autoregressive models.
method Noise conditional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with score-based sampling.
result Models trained with noise conditional MLE achieve better test likelihoods and generate higher quality images.

The paper improves ranking by integrating covariates and sparse intrinsic scores.

problem Ranking items with incomplete preference scores explained by covariates.
method Extends BTL model with covariate information and sparse intrinsic scores, using penalized MLE.
result Developed debiased estimator for penalized MLE with distributional properties.

Paper develops a robust Bayesian optimization method for noisy zeroth-order settings.

problem Achieving robustness to distributional shift in machine learning.
method Distributionally robust Bayesian optimization (DRBO) algorithm for noisy zeroth-order optimization.
result DRBO algorithm provably obtains sub-linear robust regret in various settings.