A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The study examines how market trade randomness influences price and return volatility.
ARL and Hawkes processes improve market-making strategies with variable volatility.
This study analyzes factors affecting China's stock market volatility.
A financial market model uses spin variables to represent and predict agent behavior.
The study uses DCC for financial market analysis, revealing hidden correlations.
Real world markets display power-law features in variables such as price fluctuations in stocks. To further understand market behavior, we have conducted a series of market experiments on our web-based prediction market platform which allows us to reconstruct transaction networks among traders. From these networks, we …
Optimizes profit in targeted marketing across multiple markets with varying marketing expenditures.
Model financial markets using information theory with a single parameter.
Market liquidity plays a vital role in the field of market micro-structure, because it is the vigor of the financial market. This paper uses a variable called convexity to measure the potential liquidity provided by order-book. Based on the high-frequency data of each stock included in the SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange)…
Spain uses DEA to select international markets for exports.
A/B testing improves marketing decisions by selecting effective stratification variables.
Study market-to-book ratios using Stochastic Portfolio Theory.
Proposes a virtual bidding strategy for electricity markets using stochastic control.
Although recent studies have shown that electricity systems with shares of wind and solar above 80% can be affordable, economists have raised concerns about market integration. Correlated generation from variable renewable sources depresses market prices, which can cause wind and solar to cannibalise their own revenues…
We study arbitrage opportunities, market viability and utility maximization in market models with an insider. Assuming that an economic agent possesses from the beginning an additional information in the form of a random variable G, which only becomes known to the ordinary agents at date T, we give criteria for the No …
Systemic risk measures are crucial for the stability of financial markets, yet classical formulations fail to capture the complexity of market volatility. We propose a new framework for systemic risk measurement on the variable-exponent Bochner-Lebesgue space , where the exponent is a random va…
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
The paper models intraday power prices using fundamental drivers.
In this survey, a short introduction in the recent discovery of log-normally distributed market-technical trend data will be given. The results of the statistical evaluation of typical market-technical trend variables will be presented. It will be shown that the log-normal assumption fits better to empirical trend data…
Improved volatility forecasts for U.S. stocks using social media and news data.
Variable annuities, as a class of retirement income products, allow equity market exposure for a policyholder's retirement fund with electable additional guarantees to limit the downside risk of the market. Management fees and guarantee insurance fees are charged respectively for the market exposure and for the protect…
Bayesian Black-Litterman model updated to use market data for latent variables.
Since the quasiconvex risk measures is a bigger class than the well known convex risk measures, the study of quasiconvex risk measures makes sense especially in the financial markets with volatility. In this paper, we will study the quasiconvex risk measures defined on a special space where the variable …
A new model integrates LSTM and copulas for high-dimensional financial data.
Proposes a regularization approach to model German power derivative market, identifying significant risk spillovers.
This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness extent on the forecasting precision of the daily power price is assessed. A price…
New models optimize quotes for automated market makers considering various price dynamics and demand variability.
In this paper, we build tests for the presence of residual noise in a model where the market microstructure noise is a known parametric function of some variables from the limit order book. The tests compare two distinct quasi-maximum likelihood estimators of volatility, where the related model includes a residual nois…
New risk measures for incomplete markets without lattice structures.
When investors have heterogeneous attitudes towards risk, it is reasonable to assume that each investor has a pricing kernel, and that these individual pricing kernels are aggregated to form a market pricing kernel. The various investors are then buyers or sellers depending on how their individual pricing kernels compa…
Atoms and molecules are important conceptual entities we invented to understand the physical world around us. The key to their usefulness lies in the organization of nuclear and electronic degrees of freedom into a single dynamical variable whose time evolution we can better imagine. The use of such effective variables…
UCB algorithms estimate uplifts in multi-variable reward systems.
Study uses VC correlation to uncover directional financial relationships.
We attempt to explain stock market dynamics in terms of the interaction among three variables: market price, investor opinion and information flow. We propose a framework for such interaction and apply it to build a model of stock market dynamics which we study both empirically and theoretically. We demonstrate that th…
Second-order economic theory considers new variables to improve price volatility predictions.
Optimizes LightGBM for stock market forecasting with novel feature engineering and transformation methods.
A variable annuity is an equity-linked financial product typically offered by insurance companies. The policyholder makes an upfront payment to the insurance company and, in return, the insurer is required to make a series of payments starting at an agreed upon date. For a higher premium, many insurance companies offer…
The paper sets limits on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
Starting from the global financial crisis to the more recent disruptions brought about by geopolitical tensions and public health crises, the volatility of risk in financial markets has increased significantly. This underscores the necessity for comprehensive risk measures capable of capturing the complexity and height…
Variational autoencoders help estimate missing volatility data.
We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financia…
This note complements the inspiring work on dimensional analysis and market microstructure by Kyle and Obizhaeva [18]. Following closely these authors, our main result shows by a similar argument as usually applied in physics the following remarkable fact. If the market impact of a meta-order only depends on four well-…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often referred to as the interest rate spread variable, can be considered as a statistical m…
Hedging methods to mitigate the exposure of variable annuity products to market risks require the calculation of market risk sensitivities (or "Greeks"). The complex, path-dependent nature of these products means these sensitivities typically must be estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. Standard market practice is to m…
We calculate the realized volatility in the spin model of financial markets and examine the returns standardized by the realized volatility. We find that moments of the standardized returns agree with the theoretical values of standard normal variables. This is the first evidence that the return dynamics of the spin fi…
Estimates crypto risk premia using hidden factors and finds significant integration with traditional markets.
Simplicial persistence measures financial market dynamics, revealing long-term structure evolution.
Model for hedging price and quantity risks in electricity markets.