A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Clusters of financial market states identified over 2006-2019.
By analyzing a large data set of daily returns with data clustering technique, we identify economic sectors as clusters of assets with a similar economic dynamics. The sector size distribution follows Zipf's law. Secondly, we find that patterns of daily market-wide economic activity cluster into classes that can be ide…
Improved market state classification for risk assessment.
Clusters cryptocurrency market states via cross correlation analysis.
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and Nikkei 225 (JPN). Our analyses are based on the evolution of crosscorrelation struct…
We propose the application of a high-speed maximum likelihood clustering algorithm to detect temporal financial market states, using correlation matrices estimated from intraday market microstructure features. We first determine the ex-ante intraday temporal cluster configurations to identify market states, and then st…
The ultimate value of theories of the fundamental mechanisms comprising the asset price in financial systems will be reflected in the capacity of such theories to understand these systems. Although the models that explain the various states of financial markets offer substantial evidences from the fields of finance, ma…
We propose a novel methodology to define, analyze and forecast market states. In our approach market states are identified by a reference sparse precision matrix and a vector of expectation values. In our procedure, each multivariate observation is associated with a given market state accordingly to a minimization of a…
The paper introduces a new volatility model for state heterogeneous financial markets using high-frequency data.
The paper explores states of financial markets using correlation matrices and their dynamics.
Framework improves ETF volatility forecasting by adapting to market conditions.
Proposes ICC method for dynamic portfolio optimization.
Identifies key industrial sectors in S&P 500 states.
A three-state model based on the Potts model is proposed to simulate financial markets. The three states are assigned to "buy", "sell" and "inactive" states. The model shows the main stylized facts observed in the financial market: fat-tailed distributions of returns and long time correlations in the absolute returns. …
All DeFi markets are essentially CFMMs with increasing invariants.
Financial markets analyzed by reducing correlation matrix complexity.
Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer scientists [17]. This paper gives an idea about the trend analysis of stock mar…
In this article we use the Mean-Variance Model in order to measure the current market state. In our study we take the approach of detecting the overall alignment of portfolios in the spin picture. The projection to the ground-states enables us to use physical observables in order to describe the current state of the ex…
Traders in a market typically have widely different, private information on the return of an asset. The equilibrium price of the asset may reflect this information more accurately if the number of traders is large enough compared to the number of the states of the world that determine the return of the asset. We study …
Study financial markets using synchronization measures and clustering algorithms.
The paper classifies market states to predict trading strategies, outperforming traditional methods.
A method uses image processing and deep learning for financial market state prediction.
Research shows SBP's tone impacts stock market returns positively or negatively.
We analyze the stock prices of the S&P market from 1987 until 2012 with the covariance matrix of the firm returns determined in time windows of several years. The eigenvector belonging to the leading eigenvalue (market) exhibits in its long term time dependence a phase transition with an order parameter which can be in…
A new asset allocation model uses Markov states from clustered efficient frontier coefficients.
Unique optimal strategy identified for state-dependent risk aversion.
Model financial markets using information theory with a single parameter.
FlowHFT learns adaptive trading strategies from multiple models for diverse market conditions.
Study improves stock return prediction by switching between economic states, outperforming traditional methods.
We combine geometric data analysis and stochastic modeling to describe the collective dynamics of complex systems. As an example we apply this approach to financial data and focus on the non-stationarity of the market correlation structure. We identify the dominating variable and extract its explicit stochastic model. …
We propose a three-state microscopic opinion formation model for the purpose of simulating the dynamics of financial markets. In order to mimic the heterogeneous composition of the mass of investors in a market, the agent-based model considers two different types of traders: noise traders and contrarians. Agents are re…
This paper addresses two seemingly unrelated problems, (a) What is the entropy and energy accounting in the Maxwell Demon problem? and (b) How can the efficiency of markets be measured? Here we show, in a simple model for the Maxwell Demon, the entropy of the universe increases by an amount eta=0.839995520 in going fro…
New method identifies precursors of financial crises in market correlation structures.
Framework optimizes battery storage for markets by separating long-term degradation from short-term market dynamics.
Model predicts Chinese stock market liquidity and customer order behavior.
Technological progress is leading to proliferation and diversification of trading venues, thus increasing the relevance of the long-standing question of market fragmentation versus consolidation. To address this issue quantitatively, we analyse systems of adaptive traders that choose where to trade based on their previ…
Financial markets are a typical example of complex systems where interactions between constituents lead to many remarkable features. Here, we show that a pairwise maximum entropy model (or auto-logistic model) is able to describe switches between ordered (strongly correlated) and disordered market states. In this frame…
Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock exchanges. Using a maximum entropy approach, we find coordinated behaviour during tre…
The study identifies and analyzes different market regimes in equity markets using advanced signal processing techniques.
Model financial markets using open quantum systems to understand market imperfections.
We analyze the daily stock data of the Nasdaq Composite index in the 22-year period 1992-2013 and identify market states as clusters of correlation matrices with similar correlation structures. We investigate the stability of the correlation structure of each state by estimating the statistical fluctuations of correlat…
Novel quantum algorithm for financial market modeling.
We study the dependence structure of market states by estimating empirical pairwise copulas of daily stock returns. We consider both original returns, which exhibit time-varying trends and volatilities, as well as locally normalized ones, where the non-stationarity has been removed. The empirical pairwise copula for ea…
A simple learning agent learns to trade in an agent-based market model.
Since the 1960s, the question whether markets are efficient or not is controversially discussed. One reason for the difficulty to overcome the controversy is the lack of a universal, but also precise, quantitative definition of efficiency that is able to graduate between different states of efficiency. The main purpose…
PolyBench benchmarks LLMs on real market data, revealing significant performance gaps.
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
This study shows ESG ratings reduce equity crash risk during market downturns.