A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper limits the profitability of technical trading rules and finds they are not better than random trading.
Proposes a neural network for efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting.
Axiomatizes the bid-ask market maker's quoting rule
We investigate the relationship between market efficiency of rice futures transaction in Osaka and the Japanese government intervention in rice distributions by directly buying and selling rice during the interwar period, from the middle 1910s to 1939, considering the context of "discretion versus rules." We use a time…
Study on time-zero efficiency of European power derivatives markets using statistical tests and trading rules.
This paper derives a robust on-line equity trading algorithm that achieves the greatest possible percentage of the final wealth of the best pairs rebalancing rule in hindsight. A pairs rebalancing rule chooses some pair of stocks in the market and then perpetually executes rebalancing trades so as to maintain a target …
No fair and strategy-proof automated market maker exists for more than two assets.
Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. Their profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousands traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Co…
Bidders in day-ahead electricity markets want to sell/buy electricity when their bids generate positive surplus and not to take an action when the reverse holds. However, non-convexities in these markets cause conflicts between the actions that the bidders want to take and the actual market results. In this work, we in…
Examines how central bank policies affect stock markets and asset prices.
Designing a financial market that works well is very important for developing and maintaining an advanced economy, but is not easy because changing detailed rules, even ones that seem trivial, sometimes causes unexpected large impacts and side effects. A computer simulation using an agent-based model can directly treat…
We investigate the performance of dynamic portfolios constructed using more than 21,000 technical trading rules on 12 categorical and country-specific markets over the 2004-2015 study period, on rolling forward structures of different lengths. We also introduce a discrete false discovery rate (DFRD+/-) method for contr…
Kyle (1985) builds a pioneering and influential model, in which an insider with long-lived private information submits an optimal order in each period given the market maker's pricing rule. An inconsistency exists to some extent in the sense that the ``constant pricing rule " actually assumes an adaptive expected price…
We introduce a class of utility-based market makers that always accept orders at their risk-neutral prices. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for such market makers to have bounded loss. We prove that hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility market makers are equivalent to weighted pseudospherical scoring …
The Artificial Prediction Market is a recent machine learning technique for multi-class classification, inspired from the financial markets. It involves a number of trained market participants that bet on the possible outcomes and are rewarded if they predict correctly. This paper generalizes the scope of the Artificia…
Model shows liquidity stress crossover in market dynamics.
This research proposes the econophysics kinetic market model as an evolutionary algorithm's instance. The immediate results from this proposal is a new replacement rule for family competition genetic algorithms. It also represents a starting point to adding evolvable entities to kinetic market models.
This paper investigates the effects of the "uptick rule" (a short selling regulation formally known as rule 10a-1) by means of a simple stock market model, based on the ARED (adaptive rational equilibrium dynamics) modeling framework, where heterogeneous and adaptive beliefs on the future prices of a risky asset were f…
Study shows fiduciary duty reduces municipal bond yields by 9% after SEC rule.
Paper proposes efficient cost functions for automated market makers in DeFi.
GA-MSSR optimizes forex trading rules for higher returns and reduced risk.
Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of pri…
The 20/60/20 rule improves risk management and portfolio optimization in finance.
In this paper we test computationally the performance of CAPM in an evolutionary setting. In particular we study the stability of wealth distribution in a financial market where some traders invest as prescribed by CAPM and others behave according to different portfolio rules. Our study is motivated by recent analytica…
Researchers simulate and estimate a market model with a matching engine to understand its impact on order submission and management.
Fed-FEARE model extracts rules from multiple agencies' data securely.
Uses news sentiment scores for direct reinforcement trading in financial markets.
Modeling reinsurance market, we find subgame perfect Nash equilibria.
We consider a generic market model with a single stock and with random volatility. We assume that there is a number of tradable options for that stock with different strike prices. The paper states the problem of finding a pricing rule that gives Black-Scholes price for at-money options and such that the market is arbi…
Estimates funding impact from an algorithmic relief rule, finding little effect on hospital activities.
We provide direct evidence of market manipulation at the beginning of the financial crisis in November 2007. The type of manipulation, a "bear raid," would have been prevented by a regulation that was repealed by the Securities and Exchange Commission in July 2007. The regulation, the uptick rule, was designed to preve…
This paper takes a look at the Talmudic rule aka the 1/N rule aka the uniform investment strategy from the viewpoint of elementary microeconomics. Specifically, we derive the cardinal utility function for a Talmud-obeying agent which happens to have the Cobb-Douglas form. Further, we investigate individual supply and d…
Market maker handles negative prices with unique asset swapping.
We study the most famous example of a large financial market: the Arbitrage Pricing Model, where investors can trade in a one-period setting with countably many assets admitting a factor structure. We consider the problem of maximising expected utility in this setting. Besides establishing the existence of optimizers u…
Model shows phase transitions in asset pricing with market maker incentives.
Recently, several new pari-mutuel mechanisms have been introduced to organize markets for contingent claims. Hanson introduced a market maker derived from the logarithmic scoring rule, and later Chen and Pennock developed a cost function formulation for the market maker. On the other hand, the SCPM model of Peters et a…
Technical trading rules have been widely used by practitioners in financial markets for a long time. The profitability remains controversial and few consider the stationarity of technical indicators used in trading rules. We convert MA, KDJ and Bollinger bands into stationary processes and investigate the profitability…
Econophysics has developed as a research field that applies the formalism of Statistical Mechanics and Quantum Mechanics to address Economics and Finance problems. The branch of Econophysics that applies of Quantum Theory to Economics and Finance is called Quantum Econophysics. In Finance, Quantum Econophysics' contrib…
Although technical trading rules have been widely used by practitioners in financial markets, their profitability still remains controversial. We here investigate the profitability of moving average (MA) and trading range break (TRB) rules by using the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCI) from May 21, 1992 th…
Pairs trading strategy fails to outperform market benchmarks, but performs well during bear markets.
In an equity market model with "Knightian" uncertainty regarding the relative risk and covariance structure of its assets, we characterize in several ways the highest return relative to the market that can be achieved using nonanticipative investment rules over a given time horizon, and under any admissible configurati…
In this paper, the survival function of waiting times between orders and the corresponding trades in a double-auction market is studied both by means of experiments and of empirical data. It turns out that, already at the level of order durations, the survival function cannot be represented by a single exponential, thu…
Paper analyzes constant-product market making protocols.
We empirically show the superiority of the equally weighted S\&P 500 portfolio over Sharpe's market capitalization weighted S\&P 500 portfolio. We proceed to consider the MaxMedian rule, a non-proprietary rule designed for the investor who wishes to do his/her own investing on a laptop with the purchase of only 20 stoc…
Study uses RL to simulate realistic market behavior.
In this paper we develop a model of an order-driven market where traders set bids and asks and post market or limit orders according to exogenously fixed rules. Agents are assumed to have three components to the expectation of future asset returns, namely-fundamentalist, chartist and noise trader. Furthermore agents di…
This paper prices and replicates the financial derivative whose payoff at is the wealth that would have accrued to a $\$1$ deposit into the best continuously-rebalanced portfolio (or fixed-fraction betting scheme) determined in hindsight. For the single-stock Black-Scholes market, Ordentlich and Cover (1998) only p…
Financial markets are a typical example of complex systems where interactions between constituents lead to many remarkable features. Here, we show that a pairwise maximum entropy model (or auto-logistic model) is able to describe switches between ordered (strongly correlated) and disordered market states. In this frame…