Considered an important macroeconomic indicator, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Manufacturing generally assumes that PMI announcements will produce an impact on stock markets. International experience suggests that stock markets react to negative PMI news. In this research, we empirically investigate the stock…
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48 results for “market reactions”
Study shows SEC crypto classification led to significant market reactions.
problem Impact of SEC classification of crypto assets as securities.
method Event study methodology focusing on explicitly named crypto assets.
result Significant adverse market reactions, with returns plummeting 12% over one week.
Optimal intervention in the foreign exchange market when interventions affect market dynamicsq-fin.GN
We address the problem of optimal Central Bank intervention in the exchange rate market when interventions create feedback in the rate dynamics. In particular, we extend the work done on optimal impulse control by Cadenillas and Zapatero to incorporate temporary market reactions, of random duration and level, to Bank i…
Paper presents a multi-label topic model for financial texts with high performance and insights into market reactions.
problem Analyzing financial text data for market reactions and understanding topic interactions.
method Trained a multi-label topic model on a financial text database, achieved high macro F1 score, and investigated topic interactions.
result Model achieves high performance (macro F1 > 85%) and reveals significant market reactions to topic co-occurrences.
Trend arbitrage, bid-ask spread and market dynamicsphysics.data-an
Microstructure of market dynamics is studied through analysis of tick price data. Linear trend is introduced as a tool for such analysis. Trend arbitrage inequality is developed and tested. The inequality sets limiting relationship between trend, bid-ask spread, market reaction and average update frequency of price inf…
Study examines market reactions and spillovers in Japanese bank mergers using multiple methods.
problem Understanding valuation and spillover effects of bank mergers in the Japanese banking sector.
method Combines event study, VAR models, IRFs, and PSM to analyze two M&A events.
result Significant positive market reaction and prolonged positive spillovers detected.
Study shows time matters in automated trading, improving simple strategies over complex ones.
problem Effects of reaction speed and trading urgency on automated trading strategies.
method Simulated financial markets with public limit order book and continuous double auction matching. Examined reaction speed and trading urgency.
result Simple strategies outperform complex ones when considering reaction speed and trading urgency.
Study finds companies react negatively to material cybersecurity incident disclosures.
problem Understanding market reactions to cybersecurity incidents.
method Examined daily stock price movements of companies disclosing material cybersecurity incidents.
result Companies tend to experience negative price reactions after disclosing material cybersecurity incidents.
The study explains stock return distributions using reaction functions.
problem Stock return distributions often deviate from normal distributions.
method Assumes normal event/information effects, financial over/underreaction, proposes reaction function model.
result Financial markets often underreact to minor events, overreact to significant ones, and react stronger to positive events.
Anomalous impact in reaction-diffusion modelscond-mat.stat-mech
We generalize the reaction-diffusion model A + B -> 0 in order to study the impact of an excess of A (or B) at the reaction front. We provide an exact solution of the model, which shows that linear response breaks down: the average displacement of the reaction front grows as the square-root of the imbalance. We argue t…
ChatGPT predicts stock market reactions from news headlines without financial training.
problem Predicting stock price movements using non-financial data.
method Used post-knowledge-cutoff headlines to train ChatGPT-4, which forecasts stock market reactions.
result ChatGPT-4 can predict stock market reactions with high accuracy, especially for small stocks and negative news.
Green bond leaks impact equity markets, altering investor reactions.
problem Green bond leaks affect equity market reactions.
method Identified 259 instances of pre-announcement leaks in 2,036 green bond headlines.
result News leaks significantly alter equity trading dynamics and investor reactions.
Study analyzes European energy markets' reactions to 2022 events using Bayesian methods.
problem Detecting structural breakpoints in energy and financial markets during turbulent times.
method Combines Hurst exponent for market efficiency, BEAST for abrupt changes, and seasonal/trend analysis.
result Markets exhibit varied reactions to critical events, affecting their trends and breakpoints.
Reaction-Diffusion-Branching Models of Stock Price Fluctuationscond-mat.stat-mech
Several models of stock trading [P. Bak et al, Physica A {\bf 246}, 430 (1997)] are analyzed in analogy with one-dimensional, two-species reaction-diffusion-branching processes. Using heuristic and scaling arguments, we show that the short-time market price variation is subdiffusive with a Hurst exponent . Biase…
Derives operational-time variance kernel for reaction boundaries in financial markets.
problem Separating components in volatility models to better understand market dynamics.
method Derives a variance kernel for a latent-order-book reaction boundary, separating structural boundary cumulant, clock projection, and pricing-measure choice.
result Operational variance has a closed asymptotic form for long-memory forcing, with effective signed-forcing intensity and resilience.
Modeling high-frequency speculative markets as auction search processes.
problem Understanding trading dynamics in high-frequency order-driven markets.
method Total order book model with diffusion-drift-reaction model, inspired by foraging and chemotaxis.
result Analytic and numerical analysis of trading performance in various search mechanisms.
The primary goal of this study is doing a meta-analysis research on two groups of published studies. First, the ones that focus on the evaluation of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts and second, the ones that evaluate the market reactions to the USDA forecasts. We investigate four questions. …
Study examines stock price reactions to Texas winter storm power outages.
problem Impact of natural disasters on stock market values.
method Used four benchmark models to measure abnormal returns.
result Firms experienced significant stock price drops after the Texas winter storm.
Faster trading algorithms aren't always better, as shown in simulated financial markets.
problem The impact of reaction time on automated trading performance.
method Simulated financial markets with a single exchange, public limit order book, and continuous double auction matching. Models of trading speed and computation times of trading algorithms were introduced and profiled.
result Trading performance is impacted by speed, and the Adaptive-Aggressive (AA) algorithm is outperformed by the Shaver (SHVR) strategy when relative computation times are accurately simulated.
ChatGPT can summarize corporate disclosures more concisely and effectively, improving stock market reactions.
problem Information asymmetry and inefficiency in stock markets due to bloated disclosures.
method Comparing ChatGPT-generated summaries to original disclosures, analyzing their impact on stock market reactions.
result ChatGPT-generated summaries are more effective at explaining stock market reactions to disclosed information.
This study examines asymmetric cross-correlations in cryptocurrency markets using fractal analysis.
problem Exploring asymmetric multifractal cross-correlations in cryptocurrency markets.
method Fractal analysis and MF-ADCCA method to investigate asymmetric volatility dynamics.
result Cross-correlations are stronger in downtrend markets than in uptrend markets for maturing BTC and ETH.
Stablecoin liquidity was affected by the SVB collapse, with USDC's transparency leading to market reactions.
problem Impact of stablecoin transparency on liquidity during market turmoil.
method Adapted MCI measure to Uniswap, Difference-in-Differences analysis on MCI and TVL, measured liquidity concentration.
result USDC's transparency led to swift market reactions, while USDT's opacity provided a safety net.
We suggest that the broad distribution of time scales in financial markets could be a crucial ingredient to reproduce realistic price dynamics in stylised Agent-Based Models. We propose a fractional reaction-diffusion model for the dynamics of latent liquidity in financial markets, where agents are very heterogeneous i…
New systemic risk indicator measures stock market reactions globally.
problem Analyzing systemic risk in diverse financial markets.
method Implied and realized volatility approach, focusing on historical and long-term volatility.
result IVRVSRI shows varying stock market reactions and shock persistence across locations.
Market-Derived Financial Sentiment Analysis: Context-Aware Language Models for Crypto Forecastingcs.CE
Improved crypto market forecasting using historical price reactions to tweets.
problem Challenges in inferring market impact from human sentiment labels.
method Market-derived labeling approach to assign tweet sentiment labels based on historical price trends. Fine-tuned language model with context-aware prompt-tuning.
result 89.6% accuracy on Bitcoin news events, outperforming traditional fusion models.
Evology models US equity mutual funds interactions for investment strategies.
problem Understanding complex interactions in financial markets.
method Agent-based model (ABM) of US stock market participants and their strategies.
result Trading strategies interact with other market participants and conditions.
A combination of a priority queueing model and mean field theory shows the emergence of traders' swarm behavior, even when each has a subjective prediction of the market driven by a limit order book. Using a nonlinear Markov model, we analyze the dynamics of traders who select a favorable order price taking into accoun…
Derivative pricing with virtual arbitragecond-mat.stat-mech
In this paper we derive an effective equation for derivative pricing which accounts for the presence of virtual arbitrage opportunities and their elimination by the market. We model the arbitrage return by a stochastic process and find an equation for the average derivative price. This is an integro-differential equati…
In this paper, we study the herding phenomena in financial markets arising from the combined effect of (1) non-coordinated collective interactions between the market players and (2) concurrent reactions of market players to dynamic market signals. By interpreting the expected rate of return of an asset and the favorabi…
We use the formalism of Geometrothermodynamics to describe chemical reactions in the context of equilibrium thermodynamics. Any chemical reaction in a closed system is shown to be described by a geodesic in a dimensional manifold that can be interpreted as the equilibrium space of the reaction. We first show this i…
Deriving option prices from operational-time Markov lattices
problem Option pricing
method Operational-time Markov lattice
result Derives option-pricing equations from an operational-time Markov lattice
Autonomous Discovery of Unknown Reaction Pathways from Data by Chemical Reaction Neural Networkq-bio.MN
CRNN discovers chemical reaction pathways from data.
problem Challenging to infer reaction pathways for complex systems.
method Neural network approach that satisfies fundamental physics laws.
result CRNN autonomously discovers reaction pathways from species concentration data.
MEGAN models chemical reactions as graph edits, improving synthesis planning.
problem Generating and predicting chemical reactions under constraints.
method End-to-end encoder-decoder neural model inspired by arrow pushing formalism.
result State-of-the-art accuracy in standard benchmarks for retrosynthesis prediction.
Upper bound on CRN reaction rates derived using information geometry.
problem Challenging task of deriving an upper bound on reaction rates of nonlinear, discrete CRNs.
method Information geometric approach using natural gradient.
result Validated through numerical simulations, demonstrating faster convergence in specific CRNs.
Graphs predict reaction conditions for organic chemistry.
problem Predicting specific reaction conditions in organic chemistry.
method Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for modeling reaction graphs.
result GNNs can identify specific graph features affecting reaction conditions.
This paper provides a holistic study of how stock prices vary in their response to financial disclosures across different topics. Thereby, we specifically shed light into the extensive amount of filings for which no a priori categorization of their content exists. For this purpose, we utilize an approach from data mini…
Novel deep learning method predicts reaction coordinates and future MD trajectories.
problem Identifying optimal reaction coordinates for chemical reactions.
method Regularized Sparse Autoencoder (RSE) for discovering reaction coordinates and predicting MD trajectory evolution.
result RSE helps in choosing a small but important set of reaction coordinates.
We use probabilistic methods to study classical solutions for systems of interacting semilinear parabolic partial differential equations. In a modeling framework for a financial market with interacting Ito and point processes, such PDEs are shown to provide a natural description for the solution of hedging and valuatio…
Statistical physics method analyzes minority game dynamics in financial markets.
problem Analyzing arbitrage dynamics in financial markets with noise.
method Cavity method from statistical physics for linear and time-dependent responses.
result Noise reduces arbitrage, and market dynamics exhibit non-Markovian behavior.
A Generative Model For Electron Pathsphysics.chem-ph
Chemical reactions can be described as the stepwise redistribution of electrons in molecules. As such, reactions are often depicted using `arrow-pushing' diagrams which show this movement as a sequence of arrows. We propose an electron path prediction model (ELECTRO) to learn these sequences directly from raw reaction …
We study the relaxation dynamics of the bid-ask spread and of the midprice after a sudden, large variation of the spread, corresponding to a temporary crisis of liquidity in a double auction financial market. We find that the spread decays very slowly to its normal value as a consequence of the strategic limit order pl…
In this paper, we use a database of around 400,000 metaorders issued by investors and electronically traded on European markets in 2010 in order to study market impact at different scales. At the intraday scale we confirm a square root temporary impact in the daily participation, and we shed light on a duration factor …
METRO predicts reactions using minimal templates, reducing computational overhead and achieving state-of-the-art results.
problem Predicting possible reaction substrates for complex molecules from simpler precursors.
method METRO (Molecule-Edit Templates for RetrOsynthesis) uses minimal templates to predict reactions efficiently and accurately.
result METRO achieves state-of-the-art results on standard benchmarks, reducing computational overhead.
Chemical networks outperform spiking neural networks in classification tasks.
problem Learning tasks with spiking neural networks require hidden layers, which are computationally expensive.
method Used deterministic mass-action kinetics to prove chemical reaction networks without hidden layers can solve tasks previously solved by spiking neural networks.
result A chemical reaction network without hidden layers outperforms a spiking neural network with hidden layers in a handwritten digit classification task.
Using a modified damped harmonic oscillator model equivalent to a model of market dynamics with price expectations, we analyze the reaction of financial markets to shocks. In order to do this, we gather data from indices of a variety of financial markets for the 1987 Black Monday, the Russian crisis of 1998, the crash …
Graph-based framework predicts ADR signals from clinical data.
problem Detecting ADRs in post-market surveillance using clinical data.
method Developed a Drug-disease graph with Graph Neural Network for ADR signal prediction.
result Improved AUROC and AUPRC performance (0.795 and 0.775) compared to other algorithms.
A microeconomic approach is proposed to derive the fluctuations of risky asset price, where the market participants are modeled as prospect trading agents. As asset price is generated by the temporary equilibrium between demand and supply, the agents' trading behaviors can affect the price process in turn, which is cal…
Open AI models affect bond yields differently than closed ones.
problem Understanding how market reactions to AI releases impact bond yields.
method Analyzed US bond yields before and after the release of open and closed AI models.
result Open AI models shift bond yields in the opposite direction of closed models.