arXiv research

Study on market entry timing in stock liquidation with trading constraints.

Study of a generalized geometric Brownian motion with varying entry and exit rates.

Reducing barriers to entry in large-scale ML markets, study shows multi-objective learning can lower data requirements.

Model optimal liquidation in asset bubbles with varying entry times.

In this paper we develop a statistical arbitrage trading strategy with two key elements in hi-frequency trading: stop-loss and leverage. We consider, as in Bertram (2009), a mean-reverting process for the security price with proportional transaction costs; we show how to introduce stop-loss and leverage in an optimal t…

This paper studies the problem of trading futures with transaction costs when the underlying spot price is mean-reverting. Specifically, we model the spot dynamics by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR), or exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (XOU) model. The futures term structure is derived and its conne…

This paper studies a composite problem involving the decision making of the optimal entry time and dynamic consumption afterwards. In stage-1, the investor has access to full market information subjecting to some information costs and needs to choose an optimal stopping time to initiate stage-2; in stage-2, the investo…

This paper studies the timing of trades under mean-reverting price dynamics subject to fixed transaction costs. We solve an optimal double stopping problem to determine the optimal times to enter and subsequently exit the market, when prices are driven by an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. In addition, we analy…

Motivated by the industry practice of pairs trading, we study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price spread. An optimal double stopping problem is formulated to analyze the timing to start and subsequently liquidate the position subject to transaction costs. Modeling the price spread by an Orn…

Study on optimal bubble riding with price-dependent entry times in a mean field game model.

We consider the dynamics of player's strategies in repeated market games, where the selection of strategies is determined by a learning model. Prior theoretical analysis and experimental data show that after large number of plays the average number of agents who decide to enter, per round of the game, approaches the ma…

Researchers calibrate an adaptive Farmer-Joshi model to recover stylized facts in financial markets.

The definition of time is still an open question when one deals with high frequency time series. If time is simply the calendar time, prices can be modeled as continuous random processes and values resulting from transactions or given quotes are discrete samples of this underlying dynamics. On the contrary, if one take…

Study shows how algorithmic prediction affects US housing market, reducing racial wealth disparities.

TATD predicts missing entries in time-evolving tensors by exploiting temporal dependency and sparsity.

A speculative agent with Prospect Theory preference chooses the optimal time to purchase and then to sell an indivisible risky asset to maximize the expected utility of the round-trip profit net of transaction costs. The optimization problem is formulated as a sequential optimal stopping problem and we provide a comple…

Efficiently learns matching rewards in two-sided markets with matrix completion.

After September 2008, the advanced economies severe decline caused demand for emerging economies' exports to drop and the crisis became truly global, much deeper and broader than expected. In these times of global depression, most countries and companies are affected, some more than others. The financial crisis has tur…

Paper improves tensor completion by reducing sample entries needed.

Paper introduces Cycles Protocol to integrate trade credit into market clearing.

We give an algorithm for completing an order-$m$ symmetric low-rank tensor from its multilinear entries in time roughly proportional to the number of tensor entries. We apply our tensor completion algorithm to the problem of learning mixtures of product distributions over the hypercube, obtaining new algorithmic result…

Using the correlation matrix formalism we study the temporal aspects of the Warsaw Stock Market evolution as represented by the WIG20 index. The high frequency (1 min) WIG20 recordings over the time period between January 2001 and October 2005 are used. The entries of the correlation matrix considered here connect diff…

Researchers have proposed hardware, software, and algorithmic optimizations to improve the computational performance of deep learning. While some of these optimizations perform the same operations faster (e.g., increasing GPU clock speed), many others modify the semantics of the training procedure (e.g., reduced precis…

New algorithms speed up attention computation for large models by limiting matrix entries.

The covariance matrix of a $p$-dimensional random variable is a fundamental quantity in data analysis. Given $n$ i.i.d. observations, it is typically estimated by the sample covariance matrix, at a computational cost of $O(np^{2})$ operations. When $n,p$ are large, this computation may be prohibitively slow. Moreover, …

This work generalizes transformer attention to capture higher-order correlations efficiently.

After the shocking series of bankruptcies started in 2008, the public does not trust anymore the classical methods of assessing business risks. The global economic severe downturn caused demand for both developed and emerging economies' exports to drop and the crisis became truly global. However, this current crisis of…

DeepSupp detects financial support levels using attention mechanisms.

We present a detailed analysis of the self-organization phenomenon in which the stylized facts originate from finite size effects with respect to the number of agents considered and disappear in the limit of an infinite population. By introducing the possibility that agents can enter or leave the market depending on th…

Nowadays, organizations collect vast quantities of accounting relevant transactions, referred to as 'journal entries', in 'Enterprise Resource Planning' (ERP) systems. The aggregation of those entries ultimately defines an organization's financial statement. To detect potential misstatements and fraud, international au…

We present a symmetry analysis of the distribution of variations of different financial indices, by means of a statistical procedure developed by the authors based on a symmetry statistic by Einmahl and Mckeague. We applied this statistical methodology to financial uninterrupted daily trends returns and to other derive…

American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are exchange-traded certificates that rep- resent shares of non-U.S. company securities. They are major financial instruments for investing in foreign companies. Focusing on Asian ADRs in the context of asyn- chronous markets, we present methodologies and results of empirical analysi…

We improve existing results in the field of compressed sensing and matrix completion when sampled data may be grossly corrupted. We introduce three new theorems. 1) In compressed sensing, we show that if the m \times n sensing matrix has independent Gaussian entries, then one can recover a sparse signal x exactly by tr…

Wedge Sampling improves tensor completion with nearly-linear sample complexity.

We run experimental asset markets to investigate the emergence of excess trading and the occurrence of synchronised trading activity leading to crashes in the artificial markets. The market environment favours early investment in the risky asset and no posterior trading, i.e. a buy-and-hold strategy with a most probabl…

The completion of low rank matrices from few entries is a task with many practical applications. We consider here two aspects of this problem: detectability, i.e. the ability to estimate the rank $r$ reliably from the fewest possible random entries, and performance in achieving small reconstruction error. We propose a …

The goal of this study is to determine which strategic model, either IO or RBV, allows firms to generate the highest performance on a competitive market. Contrasting with classical studies that mobilize analyses as VARCOMP, we deploy a multi-agent system simulating the behavior of firms adopting RBV or IO strategic mod…

We consider the following general hidden hubs model: an $n \times n$ random matrix $A$ with a subset $S$ of $k$ special rows (hubs): entries in rows outside $S$ are generated from the probability distribution $p_0 \sim N(0,σ_0^2)$; for each row in $S$, some $k$ of its entries are generated from $p_1 \sim N(0,σ_1^2)$, $…

We study low rank matrix and tensor completion and propose novel algorithms that employ adaptive sampling schemes to obtain strong performance guarantees. Our algorithms exploit adaptivity to identify entries that are highly informative for learning the column space of the matrix (tensor) and consequently, our results …

We consider the problem of reconstructing a low rank matrix from a subset of its entries and analyze two variants of the so-called Alternating Minimization algorithm, which has been proposed in the past. We establish that when the underlying matrix has rank $r=1$, has positive bounded entries, and the graph $\mathcal{G…

We investigate the sample size requirement for exact recovery of a high order tensor of low rank from a subset of its entries. In the Tucker decomposition framework, we show that the Riemannian optimization algorithm with initial value obtained from a spectral method can reconstruct a tensor of size $n\times n \times\c…

A new method for streaming PCA provides confidence intervals for eigenvector entries.

In this paper, we consider matrix completion from non-uniformly sampled entries including fully observed and partially observed columns. Specifically, we assume that a small number of columns are randomly selected and fully observed, and each remaining column is partially observed with uniform sampling. To recover the …

Optimal timing strategy for mean-reverting price spreads.

In the noisy tensor completion problem we observe $m$ entries (whose location is chosen uniformly at random) from an unknown $n_1 \times n_2 \times n_3$ tensor $T$. We assume that $T$ is entry-wise close to being rank $r$. Our goal is to fill in its missing entries using as few observations as possible. Let $n = \max(n…

Study uses sentiment analysis to predict implied volatility surface, improving prediction accuracy.

Matrix factorization (MF) has been widely used to discover the low-rank structure and to predict the missing entries of data matrix. In many real-world learning systems, the data matrix can be very high-dimensional but sparse. This poses an imbalanced learning problem, since the scale of missing entries is usually much…

New research shows larger language models improve data processing for diverse entries.