Study shows how high-budget agents can manipulate prediction markets.
problem Manipulation of prediction markets by high-budget agents.
method Agent-based simulations and analytic characterization of price dynamics.
result High-budget agents can temporarily shift prediction market prices.
We introduce the concept of forward rank-dependent performance processes, extending the original notion to forward criteria that incorporate probability distortions. A fundamental challenge is how to reconcile the time-consistent nature of forward performance criteria with the time-inconsistency stemming from probabili…
Investigates stability of Epstein-Zin problem under market distortions.
problem Stability of Epstein-Zin problem in incomplete markets.
method Analyzes perturbations in returns and volatility, and interest rate; proves convergence of optimal solutions.
result Proves convergence of optimal consumption streams and value functions in the limit of model perturbations.
Study optimal risk sharing in decentralized peer-to-peer markets with robust risk measures.
problem Optimizing risk sharing in decentralized markets with non-convex risk measures.
method Characterization of Pareto-optimal allocations using robust distortion risk measures and probabilistic risk aversion.
result Shape of allocations depends on agents' tail risk assessments.
Method determines asset prices in incomplete markets to optimize portfolios.
problem Optimizing portfolios in incomplete markets with price constraints.
method Maximum entropy in the mean to adjust distortion function from bid-ask data.
result Prices of assets comply with portfolio optimization constraints.
Study on costs of manipulating AMM-based price oracles.
problem Cost of manipulation in AMM-based on-chain price oracles.
method Analyzes the robustness of AMM-based oracles to strategic manipulation, considering different aggregation methods and market conditions.
result Manipulation costs depend on the total quote depth and can be minimized by optimal liquidity weights.
New framework uses simplicial and categorical methods to detect market inconsistencies.
problem Detecting inconsistencies in financial markets using non-measure-preserving transitions.
method Simplicial and categorical formulation of AB type arbitrage in filtered market systems.
result Holonomy along loops reveals global inconsistencies invisible at local levels.
The paper studies risk-sharing allocations for risk-seeking agents using a common distortion risk measure.
problem Characterizing Pareto-optimal risk-sharing allocations for risk-seeking agents.
method Modeling preferences with a common distortion risk measure and analyzing three settings: risk-averse, risk-seeking, and inverse S-shaped distortion.
result Pareto-optimal allocations for risk-seeking agents are counter-monotonic, not comonotonic.
We present a brief overview of random matrix theory (RMT) with the objectives of highlighting the computational results and applications in financial markets as complex systems. An oft-encountered problem in computational finance is the choice of an appropriate epoch over which the empirical cross-correlation return ma…
New method for risk quantification using quantile processes and measure distortions.
problem Risk quantification and valuation in financial markets.
method Develops a novel stochastic valuation principle based on probability measure distortions induced by quantile processes.
result Introduces a system of subjective probability measures that indexes a stochastic valuation principle susceptible to probability measure distortions.
The aim of this work consists in the study of the optimal investment strategy for a behavioural investor, whose preference towards risk is described by both a probability distortion and an S-shaped utility function. Within a continuous-time financial market framework and assuming that asset prices are modelled by semim…
New method assesses financial and cyber risks under uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in risk assessment for financial and cyber systems.
method Combines stochastic approximation and distorted mix method to compute worst case average value at risk.
result Efficient algorithm for tail uncertainty in multivariate distributions.
The aims of this study are twofold. First, we consider an optimal risk allocation problem with non-convex preferences. By establishing an infimal representation for distortion risk measures, we give some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of optimal and asymptotic optimal allocations. We will show th…
In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal reinsurance design, when the risk is measured by a distortion risk measure and the premium is given by a distortion risk premium. First, we show how the optimal reinsurance design for the ceding company, the reinsurance company and the social planner can be formulated i…
This paper solves a financial portfolio selection problem in incomplete markets.
problem Portfolio selection in incomplete financial markets with ambiguity.
method Constructing an efficient frontier, simplifying the problem, introducing a new distorted Legendre transformation, and proving the bipolar relation and distorted duality theorem.
result The existence and uniqueness of optimal strategies are shown for different utility functions under specific conditions.
Researchers simulate and estimate a market model with a matching engine to understand its impact on order submission and management.
problem The impact of a matching engine on the modeling of order submission and management in financial markets.
method Simulation of a 10-variate Hawkes process with rules for different order types, including limit orders, to compare model parameters with the original order generating process.
result Practical considerations, not directly related to model specification, can significantly distort the true model specification in an asynchronous trading environment.
Study of insurance market equilibria with risk-averse policyholders.
problem Analyzing optimal insurance contracts in a monopoly market with risk-averse policyholders.
method Modeling Stackelberg equilibria with a profit-maximizing insurer and a risk-averse policyholder.
result Equilibrium contracts exhibit a layer-type structure, providing full insurance over pessimistic loss layers and no coverage over optimistic ones.
Optimizes portfolio growth rate for a behavioral investor considering terminal relative growth rate.
problem Optimizing a behavioral investor's portfolio growth rate under relative growth criterion.
method Martingale method, concavification, and quantile optimization techniques.
result Derives closed-form optimal growth rate and finds significant impact of benchmark growth rate.
The paper analyzes insurance pricing and capital allocation in imperfect markets.
problem Analyzing insurance pricing and capital allocation in imperfect markets.
method Non-additive distortion pricing functional and principle of equal priority of payments in default.
result Derives the natural allocation of premium and margin with properties that merit the name.
Investors optimize their portfolios within a Wasserstein ball to match a benchmark's risk profile.
problem Optimizing portfolio performance while maintaining risk proximity to a benchmark.
method Optimal dynamic strategy selection based on minimizing distortion risk measures within a Wasserstein ball.
result An optimal dynamic strategy exists and can be calculated through isotonic projections.
GG distribution improves option pricing for negatively skewed spot price distributions.
problem Inaccurate Black-Scholes model for negatively skewed spot price distributions.
method Applied Generalized Gamma (GG) distribution as a Risk-Neutral Density (RND) for Heston's SV model.
result GG distribution better matches market option data with negatively skewed spot price distributions.
AI stocks hedge against AI singularity's economic impact.
problem AI singularity's displacement of consumption.
method Developed an asset pricing model with incomplete markets.
result AI stocks command a premium due to market incompleteness.
The paper examines how risk reduction and insurance choices interact under convex premium principles.
problem Interaction between self-protection and insurance demand under convex premium principles.
method Investigates optimal prevention efforts and insurance shares using distortion risk measures.
result Self-protection and insurance are complementary, but ex ante moral hazard can turn this into a substitution effect.
Vertex distortion detects if a knot is unknot.
problem Determining if a knot is the unknot.
method Using Denne-Sullivan's bound on Gromov distortion, the vertex distortion of nontrivial lattice knots is bounded. Then, it is shown that trivial vertex distortion implies the unknot.
result The conjecture that trivial vertex distortion implies the unknot is proven.
This paper examines an optimal investment problem in a continuous-time (essentially) complete financial market with a finite horizon. We deal with an investor who behaves consistently with principles of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and whose utility function on gains is bounded above. The well-posedness of the optimisat…
New method corrects complex distortions in single view images.
problem Complex distortions in images, especially those caused by refractive surfaces.
method Differentiable image sampling and semantic information augmentation.
result Model can estimate and correct highly complex distortions.
Algorithm finds optimal affine transformation to minimize overall distortion.
problem Minimizing distortion in affine transformations.
method Riemannian geometry approach to define and minimize distortion.
result Mean distorting transformation found for minimizing overall distortion.
Causal analysis predicts market trends using time series data.
problem Predicting financial market trends using diverse time series data.
method Causal analysis based on lagged Pearson correlation applied to financial metrics.
result Discrimination of causal connections between different types of market data.
Vertex distortion measures how far lattice knots deviate from straight lines.
problem Measuring how much lattice knots deviate from straight paths.
method Analogous to smooth knots, study vertex distortion in lattice knots.
result Vertex distortion is 1 only for the unknot and can be arbitrarily high.
We consider the problem of distortion minimal morphing of n-dimensional compact connected oriented smooth manifolds without boundary embedded in Rn+1. Distortion involves bending and stretching. In this paper, minimal distortion (with respect to stretching) is defined as the infinitesimal relative change in vol…
This paper shows how to calculate risk measures for sums of two counter-monotonic risks.
problem Calculating risk measures for sums of two counter-monotonic risks.
method Using a fixed distortion function and expressing the risk measure of a sum as the sum of two related measures of the marginals.
result The risk measure of a sum of two counter-monotonic risks can be expressed as the sum of two related distortion risk measures of the marginals.
The paper shows how to calculate risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask CDS quotes.
problem Calculating risk-neutral default probabilities from market quotes.
method Using conic finance framework and Poisson process to formulate and solve the calibration problem.
result A unique solution for risk-neutral default probabilities and implied liquidity.
A new family of stochastic dominance orders based on distortion functions.
problem Determining a continuum of dominance relations for risk assessment.
method Introducing H-distorted stochastic dominance, a generalized family of stochastic orders.
result Power-distorted stochastic dominance is particularly appealing due to its simplicity and statistical interpretations.
Study distortion risk measures for step-weighted distributions.
problem Analyzing risk measures for specific distribution types.
method Investigate distortion risk measures of step-weighted distributions.
result Developed methods for calculating risk measures.
The distortion of a curve measures the maximum arc/chord length ratio. Gromov showed any closed curve has distortion at least pi/2 and asked about the distortion of knots. Here, we prove that any nontrivial tame knot has distortion at least 5pi/3; examples show that distortion under 7.16 suffices to build a trefoil kno…
Computed distortion coefficients for the α-Grushin plane.
problem Analyzing the distortion coefficients of the α-Grushin plane.
method Using generalised trigonometric functions and synthetic curvature conditions.
result Estimates for distortion coefficients and a curvature condition conjecture.
Study on risk measures using distorted Choquet integrals with random distortions.
problem Developing risk measures under random distortions of capacities.
method Introducing and analyzing randomly distorted Choquet integrals with respect to a distorted capacity, establishing properties and providing representations.
result Representation of comonotonic additive conditional risk measures using G-randomly distorted Choquet integrals.
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In …
This paper contains a phenomenological description of the whole U.S. forward rate curve (FRC), based on an data in the period 1990-1996. We find that the average FRC (measured from the spot rate) grows as the square-root of the maturity, with a prefactor which is comparable to the spot rate volatility. This suggests th…
We show that an entire branched cover of finite distortion cannot have a compact branch set if its distortion satisfies a certain asymptotic growth condition. We furthermore show that this bound is strict by constructing an entire, continuous, open and discrete mapping of finite distortion which is piecewise smooth, ha…
The distortion of a curve is the supremum, taken over distinct pairs of points of the curve, of the ratio of arclength to spatial distance between the points. Gromov asked in 1981 whether a curve in every knot type can be constructed with distortion less than a universal constant C. Answering Gromov's question seems to…
The study shows exponential distortion in virtually special groups containing free subgroups.
problem Understanding distortion in virtually special groups containing free subgroups.
method Constructing examples of virtually special groups with finite rank free subgroups.
result Distortion functions grow like exp^k(x^m) and can be superexponential.
New mechanism designs regulate herding in financial markets.
problem Herding causes irrational market decisions and volatility.
method A trilateral game framework based on optimal control theory.
result Effective mechanisms improve social welfare.
Estimates rate-distortion function for large datasets using neural networks.
problem Designing lossy data compression schemes and comparing them with theoretical limits.
method Re-formulate rate-distortion objective and solve using neural networks.
result NERD accurately estimates the rate-distortion function for real-world datasets.
New coding theorem shows achievable rate matches theoretical limit.
problem Unknown existence of encoders and decoders for RDPF.
method Used stochastic, variable-length codes to prove RDPF achievable.
result Achievable rate matches theoretical rate-distortion-perception function.
We construct 2-dimensional CAT(-1) groups which contain free subgroups with arbitrary iterated exponential distortion, and with distortion higher than any iterated exponential.
Paper proposes a new black-box attack approach to minimize visual distortion.
problem Constructing adversarial examples that minimize visual distortion in a black-box threat model.
method Learning the noise distribution of adversarial examples to approximate the gradient of a non-differentiable loss function.
result The proposed attack results in much lower visual distortion compared to state-of-the-art black-box attacks.
Sharp bounds for distortion risk metrics under uncertain distributions.
problem Modeling risk metrics under distributional uncertainty.
method Established bounds for distortion risk metrics using specific features of underlying distributions.
result Identified worst- and best-case values of distortion risk metrics.