A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Market forecasts converge to true values if some agents are correct.
Study analyzes prediction market convergence and pricing mechanisms.
Study shows financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
We consider arbitrage free valuation of European options in Black-Scholes and Merton markets, where the general structure of the market is known, however the specific parameters are not known. In order to reflect this subjective uncertainty of a market participant, we follow a Bayesian approach to option pricing. Here …
Study approximates financial market with discrete-time models.
Study stability of trading strategy under market perturbations.
Unified framework for optimal liquidation with small market impact and semimartingale strategies.
Study proves fluid limits of fragmented limit-order markets.
Study shows how heavy-tailed Hawkes processes can model rough volatility in financial markets.
I unravel the basic long run dynamics of the broker call money market, which is the pile of cash that funds margin loans to retail clients (read: continuous time Kelly gamblers). Call money is assumed to supply itself perfectly inelastically, and to continuously reinvest all principal and interest. I show that the rela…
We show that shortfall risks of American options in a sequence of multinomial approximations of the multidimensional Black--Scholes (BS) market converge to the corresponding quantities for similar American options in the multidimensional BS market with path dependent payoffs. In comparison to previous papers we conside…
DHLNN improves deep hedging for financial derivatives with faster convergence and better stability.
ARL makes market makers resilient to adversarial conditions.
Study uses MFG approach to model equilibrium pricing with market clearing condition.
Study shows finite agent equilibrium converges to mean-field limit in asset pricing.
We prove limit theorems for the super-replication cost of European options in a Binomial model with friction. The examples covered are markets with proportional transaction costs and the illiquid markets. The dual representation for the super-replication cost in these models are obtained and used to prove the limit the…
The paper confirms a conjecture about optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
We study the most famous example of a large financial market: the Arbitrage Pricing Model, where investors can trade in a one-period setting with countably many assets admitting a factor structure. We consider the problem of maximising expected utility in this setting. Besides establishing the existence of optimizers u…
We study the problem of determination of asset prices in an incomplete market proposing three different but related scenarios. One scenario uses a market game approach whereas the other two are based on risk sharing or regret minimizing considerations. Dynamical schemes modeling the convergence of the buyer's and of th…
We show that prices and shortfall risks of game (Israeli) barrier options in a sequence of binomial approximations of the Black--Scholes (BS) market converge to the corresponding quantities for similar game barrier options in the BS market with path dependent payoffs and the speed of convergence is estimated, as well. …
In evaluating prediction markets (and other crowd-prediction mechanisms), investigators have repeatedly observed a so-called "wisdom of crowds" effect, which roughly says that the average of participants performs much better than the average participant. The market price---an average or at least aggregate of traders' b…
We consider an optimal investment and consumption problem for a Black-Scholes financial market with stochastic coefficients driven by a diffusion process. We assume that an agent makes consumption and investment decisions based on CRRA utility functions. The dynamical programming approach leads to an investigation of t…
This paper studies the market phenomenon of non-convergence between futures and spot prices in the grains market. We postulate that the positive basis observed at maturity stems from the futures holder's timing options to exercise the shipping certificate delivery item and subsequently liquidate the physical grain. In …
Investigates stability of Epstein-Zin problem under market distortions.
Model shows stock markets can be inefficiently mispriced.
The paper introduces a framework to assess nonlinear causality in financial markets.
ARISE models efficient markets without periodogram or Gaussianity assumptions.
We study the arbitrage opportunities in the presence of transaction costs in a sequence of binary markets approximating the fractional Black-Scholes model. This approximating sequence was constructed by Sottinen and named fractional binary markets. Since, in the frictionless case, these markets admit arbitrage, we aim …
The paper analyzes binary option markets with exogenous information and price sensitivity.
We find the explicit expression for the equilibrium wealth distribution of the Directed Random Market process, recently introduced by Martínez-Martínez and López-Ruiz, which turns out to be a Gamma distribution with shape parameter . We also prove the convergence of the discrete-time process describing the…
With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the agent minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time, semi-static market of stocks and options. Based on duality results which link quantile he…
Ensuring sufficient liquidity is one of the key challenges for designers of prediction markets. Various market making algorithms have been proposed in the literature and deployed in practice, but there has been little effort to evaluate their benefits and disadvantages in a systematic manner. We introduce a novel exper…
The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global financial tsunami and China's economy has also slowed down by about 2\%-3\% when m…
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find little evidence for converge…
Study market efficiency under partial information using SDEs and optimization.
In this paper we show how to approximate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed form representation of the forward price dynamics in the approximation models and derive the rate of c…
We consider Lipschitz-type backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) driven by cylindrical martingales on the space of continuous functions. We show the existence and uniqueness of the solution of such infinite-dimensional BSDEs and prove that the sequence of solutions of corresponding finite-dimensional BSDEs…
We give characterizations of asymptotic arbitrage of the first and second kind and of strong asymptotic arbitrage for large financial markets with small proportional transaction costs $\la_n$ on market in terms of contiguity properties of sequences of equivalent probability measures induced by $\la_n$--consistent p…
A simple learning agent learns to trade in an agent-based market model.
We study the Heston-Cox-Ingersoll-Ross++ stochastic-local volatility model in the context of foreign exchange markets and propose a Monte Carlo simulation scheme which combines the full truncation Euler scheme for the stochastic volatility component and the stochastic domestic and foreign short interest rates with the …
We propose two variants of the Smith-Wilson method for practical application in the insurance industry. Our first variant relaxes the Smith-Wilson energy and can be used to incorporate less reliable market data with a certain weight rather than disregarding it completely. This is particularly useful for deriving yield …
Understanding how funding and 4H context regulate crypto markets.
Market makers optimize trading with a new implicit scheme for complex inequalities.
Investigates fund separations and stability for long-term optimal investments.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
Perpetual futures offer leverage without maturity, with prices influenced by funding rates.
Study long-only minimum variance portfolio in one-factor market with arbitrary sign betas.
Investment strategies in financial markets can lead to instability due to market impacts.