A new method for estimating random utility models using rank-breaking and composite marginal likelihood.
problem Estimating random utility models efficiently and accurately.
method Rank-breaking-then-composite-marginal-likelihood (RBCML) framework.
result RBCML achieves better statistical efficiency and computational efficiency than existing methods.
Margin maximization in the hard-margin sense, proposed as feature elimination criterion by the MFE-LO method, is combined here with data radius utilization to further aim to lower generalization error, as several published bounds and bound-related formulations pertaining to lowering misclassification risk (or error) pe…
Study shows non-replicable endowments can lead to unique price intervals.
problem Non-replicable endowments and their impact on price intervals.
method Formulas and examples for calculating marginal utility-based prices.
result Non-replicable endowments can lead to unique price intervals, unlike replicable endowments.
We review the utility-based valuation method for pricing derivative securities in incomplete markets. In particular, we review the practical approach to the utility-based pricing by the means of computing the first order expansion of marginal utility-based prices with respect to a small number of random endowments.
The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term yield curves modeling. Inspired by the economic litterature, it provides a financial interpretation of the Ramsey rule that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adju…
Optimal persuasion involves projecting state vectors onto lower-dimensional 'optimal information manifolds'.
problem Optimal persuasion of another agent observing multi-dimensional data.
method Performing non-linear dimension reduction by projecting state vectors onto the 'optimal information manifold'.
result Optimal information design splits information into 'good' and 'bad' components, revealing only the direction of good information.
Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of max-margin supervised topic models for both continuous and categorical response var…
A new model uses neural networks for consistent discrete choice analysis.
problem Difficulties in specifying utility functions in RUM models.
method Alternative-Specific and Shared weights Neural Network (ASS-NN) model.
result ASS-NN provides consistent outcomes without specifying utility form.
Paper improves deep neural networks' generalization by focusing on margin distribution complexity.
problem Improving deep neural networks' generalization performance.
method Proves a generalization upper bound based on margin distribution statistics and optimizes a convex margin distribution loss function.
result Optimizing the ratio of margin standard deviation to expected margin enhances generalization performance.
Investment and consumption strategies with luxury goods for retirement age.
problem Optimal investment and consumption with heterogeneous goods and retirement timing.
method PDE and stochastic control theory, variational inequality, dual transformation.
result Optimal consumption strategies and retirement policies for utility maximizers.
We discuss utility based pricing and hedging of jump diffusion processes with emphasis on the practical applicability of the framework. We point out two difficulties that seem to limit this applicability, namely drift dependence and essential risk aversion independence. We suggest to solve these by a re-interpretation …
In the present paper we provide new examples of marginally trapped surfaces and tubes in FLRW spacetimes by using a basic relation between these objects and CMC surfaces in 3-manifolds. We also provide a new method to construct marginally trapped surfaces in closed FLRW spacetimes, which is based on the classical Hopf …
Researchers quantify risk exposure and sensitivities in financial markets under model uncertainty.
problem Optimizing investment and pricing under model uncertainty in financial markets.
method Distributionally robust optimization, Wasserstein ball, first-order sensitivity analysis.
result Sensitivities of value function, investment policy, and marginal prices to model uncertainty can be non-monotonic.
Unified binary and multiclass margin-based classification methods.
problem No consensus on multiclass loss functions analogous to binary margin loss.
method Showed multiclass loss functions can be expressed in relative margin form.
result Extended classification-calibration result to multiclass.
We perform a stability analysis for the utility maximization problem in a general semimartingale model where both liquid and illiquid assets (random endowments) are present. Small misspecifications of preferences (as modeled via expected utility), as well as views of the world or the market model (as modeled via subjec…
This paper solves robust utility maximization with unknown claim dependencies.
problem Investor optimizes utility in the presence of an intractable contingent claim.
method Quantile optimization approach, transforming dynamic problem into static concave optimization.
result Optimal payoffs depend on ambiguity attitude, market conditions, and claim characteristics.
RUMBoost combines RUMs and deep learning for better choice modelling.
problem Creating interpretable and robust discrete choice models.
method Gradient Boosted Regression Trees for utility functions, with constraints for interpretability and monotonicity.
result RUMBoost outperforms ML and RUM benchmarks in predictive performance and interpretability.
The paper addresses portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices, finding a logarithmic risk dependence.
problem Portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices.
method Calculates the expected value of CARA utility function over a distribution of covariance matrices, considering uncertainty in future returns and covariances.
result Marginalization introduces a logarithmic dependence on risk, leading to lower allocation levels for higher uncertainties.
Max-margin method for eliciting preferences in large spaces.
problem Preference elicitation in large configuration spaces.
method Setwise max-margin learning as a generalization of max-margin learning to sets.
result Produces diverse sets of items for user queries and encourages sparsity.
MLS improves feature selection for imbalanced data.
problem Machine learning challenges with imbalanced high-dimensional data.
method Introduces Marginal Laplacian Score (MLS) for better feature selection.
result MLS improves performance on synthetic and public datasets.
This paper studies stability of the exponential utility maximization when there are small variations on agent's utility function. Two settings are considered. First, in a general semimartingale model where random endowments are present, a sequence of utilities defined on R converges to the exponential utility. Under a …
Copula-based method generates synthetic populations from marginal distributions.
problem Generating realistic synthetic populations from limited data.
method Copula-based framework for population synthesis.
result Copula framework enhances transferability and realism of synthetic populations.
A new algorithm estimates aggregate marginals from noisy data in an online manner.
problem Estimating aggregate marginals of a Markov chain from noisy aggregate observations.
method Sliding window Sinkhorn belief propagation (SW-SBP) algorithm.
result Demonstrated improved performance on inferring population flow.
New insights show Medicaid impacts on ED use vary widely, with some groups seeing significant increases.
problem Understanding the varied impacts of Medicaid on emergency department use.
method Causal machine learning methods to identify heterogeneous impacts.
result Meaningful heterogeneity in the effect of Medicaid on ED use, with a small group driving the overall effect.
Novel proof shows continuity of optimal transport feasible set mapping.
problem Continuity of feasible set mapping in optimal transport problems.
method Presented a novel and shorter proof of continuity.
result Established continuity of the feasible set mapping.
In the general framework of a semimartingale financial model and a utility function U defined on the positive real line, we compute the first-order expansion of marginal utility-based prices with respect to a ``small'' number of random endowments. We show that this linear approximation has some important qualitative …
This paper studies the problem of maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth for a financial agent with an unbounded random endowment, and with a utility function which supports both positive and negative wealth. We prove the existence of an optimal trading strategy within a class of permissible strategies -- t…
Paper improves DP-ERM for binary linear classification with large-margin subsets.
problem Differentially private binary linear classification with large-margin subsets.
method Efficient (ε,δ)-DP algorithm with empirical zero-one risk bound. result Improved empirical zero-one risk bound for binary linear classification.
The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adjusting preferences to new ec…
GBC methods compute expected utility without needing the model's density.
problem Computing expected utility in complex models.
method Density-free generative method using quantile neural estimator.
result Efficient estimation of expected utility from simulated data.
PrAda-GAN improves synthetic data generation under differential privacy.
problem Generating synthetic data under differential privacy with marginal-based methods.
method Sequential generator architecture integrating GAN and marginal-based approaches, with adaptive regularization of Bayes network structure.
result PrAda-GAN outperforms existing methods in privacy-utility trade-off on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Modern portfolio theory(MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to al…
The main goal of this paper is presentation a modern axiomatic approach to financial arithmetic. At the first, the axiomatic financial arithmetic theory was proposed by Peccati who has introduced the axiomatic definition of the future value. This theory has been extensively developed in past years. Proposed approach to…
New proof for convex bounds on random vector sums.
problem Proving convex bounds for random vectors with given marginal distributions.
method Using distortion risk measure and expected utility theories.
result Two results on comonotonic and mutually exclusive random vectors are proven.
The paper analyzes portfolio selection with non-concave utility and transaction costs.
problem Non-concave utility maximization with proportional transaction costs.
method Two-step procedure: asymptotic terminal behavior analysis and discontinuous viscosity solution.
result Optimal portfolio strategies can differ significantly from the frictionless case due to transaction costs.
Novel upper bound for unsupervised domain adaptation considers joint error.
problem Addressing the issue of mixing samples from different classes when matching marginal distributions.
method Proposes a general upper bound that penalizes undesirable joint error, uses constrained hypothesis space, and introduces cross margin discrepancy.
result Our proposal outperforms related approaches in image classification error rates on domain adaptation benchmarks.
Analyzed Black's equation for risk tolerance in finance.
problem Optimizing portfolio function in log-normal models.
method Formulated and analyzed the nonlinear equation for risk tolerance, providing existence, uniqueness, and regularity results.
result Stronger results for utilities with completely monotonic inverses.
Paper studies statistical properties of DP data synthesis algorithms based on Bayesian networks.
problem Ensuring differential privacy in synthetic data generation for high-dimensional data.
method Introduces random noise to low-dimensional marginals of a probabilistic graphical model (BN) to achieve differential privacy.
result Establishes a rigorous accuracy guarantee for BN-based DP synthetic data generators using total variation (TV) distance.
Generative neural networks model multivariate time series data.
problem Modeling cross-sectional dependence in multivariate time series data.
method ARMA-GARCH for serial dependence, PCA for dimensionality reduction, GMMN for cross-sectional dependence.
result GMMN-GARCH approach produces better predictive distributions and probabilistic forecasts.
Default-ERM shortcut learning persists even without additional information.
problem Default-ERM shortcut learning in perception tasks despite stable feature sufficiency.
method Studied linear perception task; developed margin control (MARG-CTRL) loss functions.
result Margin control mitigates shortcut learning on various tasks.
A new method for valuing insurance liabilities using cost-of-capital approach.
problem Valuation of insurance liabilities with market-consistency and cost considerations.
method Two-stage valuation: replicate liability cash flow first, then manage residual cash flow with capital constraints.
result Explicit formulas and properties of the cost-of-capital margin under specific assumptions.
Improved sampling for complex distributions using quasi-Newton proposals.
problem Sampling from complex, high-dimensional target distributions efficiently.
method Extended pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings with quasi-Newton proposals.
result Quasi-Newton proposals outperform standard random-walk and Hessian-based proposals.
Econometrics is based on the nonempiric notion of utility. Prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. Utility is usually treated by economists as a price potential, other times utility rates are treated as Lagrangians. Assumptions of integrability of Lagrangians and dynamics are im…
Study examines insurance demand under ambiguity aversion.
problem Demand for insurance indemnification under ambiguity aversion.
method Characterizes optimal indemnity functions using Maxmin-Expected Utility model.
result Optimal indemnity functions involve full insurance on low-probability events.
Study optimizes fairness in predictive models by balancing utility and separation.
problem Balancing fairness and utility in predictive models.
method Information-theoretic approach using conditional mutual information (CMI).
result Reduces separation violations while maintaining or improving utility.
New estimator reduces variance in off-policy evaluation for contextual bandits.
problem High variance in current OPE methods for contextual bandits.
method Marginal Density Ratio (MR) estimator focusing on marginal distribution shift.
result MR estimator reduces variance compared to IPW and DR methods.
We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and automated variational Gaussian copula approach, in which the parametric Gaussian copul…
Study optimizes option pricing with robust strategies, ensuring consistency with vanilla option prices.
problem Optimizing exotic option pricing with robust strategies.
method Introduces semistatic strategies and robust convex integral functionals on bounded continuous functions.
result Consistent indifference prices with observed vanilla option prices.