A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper proposes a method to test properties of the optimal assortment in multinomial logit models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for the optimal assortment in multinomial logit models.
method The paper proposes a novel inferential framework to test properties of the optimal assortment in multinomial logit models, reducing the problem to detecting the sign change point of marginal revenue gaps.
result The asymptotic normality of the marginal revenue gap estimator and the construction of a maximum statistic to detect the sign change point.
Tax evasion is the illegal evasion of taxes by individuals, corporations, and trusts. The revenue loss from tax avoidance can undermine the effectiveness and equity of the government policies. A standard measure of tax evasion is the tax gap, that can be estimated as the difference between the total amounts of tax theo…
This paper examines and proposes several attribution modeling methods that quantify how revenue should be attributed to online advertising inputs. We adopt and further develop relative importance method, which is based on regression models that have been extensively studied and utilized to investigate the relationship …
As shown in recent research, deep neural networks can perfectly fit randomly labeled data, but with very poor accuracy on held out data. This phenomenon indicates that loss functions such as cross-entropy are not a reliable indicator of generalization. This leads to the crucial question of how generalization gap should…
We analyze annual revenues and earnings data for the 500 largest-revenue U.S. companies during the period 1954-2007. We find that mean year profits are proportional to mean year revenues, exception made for few anomalous years, from which we postulate a linear relation between company expected mean profit and revenue. …
Out of the companies, Dolby is the company with the best overall financial and operation health. According to the table that accounted its financial statements for the past three years, Dolby has stable profit margins that generates a revenue in the billions, the only company in ten figures. Corporate competition to ga…
In the cost per click (CPC) pricing model, an advertiser pays an ad network only when a user clicks on an ad; in turn, the ad network gives a share of that revenue to the publisher where the ad was impressed. Still, advertisers may be unsatisfied with ad networks charging them for "valueless" clicks, or so-called accid…
We present novel understandings of the Gamma-Poisson (GaP) model, a probabilistic matrix factorization model for count data. We show that GaP can be rewritten free of the score/activation matrix. This gives us new insights about the estimation of the topic/dictionary matrix by maximum marginal likelihood estimation. In…
Recent research has used margin theory to analyze the generalization performance for deep neural networks (DNNs). The existed results are almost based on the spectrally-normalized minimum margin. However, optimizing the minimum margin ignores a mass of information about the entire margin distribution, which is crucial …
Uplift models support decision-making in marketing campaign planning. Estimating the causal effect of a marketing treatment, an uplift model facilitates targeting communication to responsive customers and efficient allocation of marketing budgets. Research into uplift models focuses on conversion models to maximize inc…
'There is no terror in the bang, only is the anticipation of it' - Alfred Hitchcock. Yet there is everything in correctly anticipating the bang a movie would make in the box-office. Movies make a high profile, billion dollar industry and prediction of movie revenue can be very lucrative. Predicted revenues can be used …
The paradox of the energy transition is that the low marginal costs of new renewable energy sources (RES) drag electricity prices down and discourage investments in flexible productions that are needed to compensate for the lack of dispatchability of the new RES. The energy transition thus discourages the investments t…
This paper addresses the problem of unsupervised domain adaption from theoretical and algorithmic perspectives. Existing domain adaptation theories naturally imply minimax optimization algorithms, which connect well with the domain adaptation methods based on adversarial learning. However, several disconnections still …
In this paper, we reformulate the forest representation learning approach as an additive model which boosts the augmented feature instead of the prediction. We substantially improve the upper bound of generalization gap from O(mlnm) to O(mlnm), while λ - the margin r…
The study uses historical revenue data to forecast music catalog cashflows and multipliers.
problem Valuation of music catalogs based on historical revenue data.
method Risk-neutral approach using discounted cashflows formula.
result Ask prices are close to multipliers justified by median song cashflows, while best bids are near multipliers justified by bottom decile cashflows.
For any business, planning is a continuous process, and typically business-owners focus on making both long-term planning aligned with a particular strategy as well as short-term planning that accommodates the dynamic market situations. An ability to perform an accurate financial forecast is crucial for effective plann…
In markets for online advertising, some advertisers pay only when users respond to ads. So publishers estimate ad response rates and multiply by advertiser bids to estimate expected revenue for showing ads. Since these estimates may be inaccurate, the publisher risks not selecting the ad for each ad call that would max…
This work studies learning curves for revenue maximization algorithms.
problem Understanding the performance of revenue-maximizing algorithms as they learn from more data.
method Initiates the study of learning curves for revenue maximization, providing a near-complete characterization of their rate of decay.
result Learning curves for revenue maximization can decay arbitrarily slowly or almost exponentially fast, depending on the distribution and optimal revenue.
Online advertisement is the main source of revenue for Internet business. Advertisers are typically ranked according to a score that takes into account their bids and potential click-through rates(eCTR). Generally, the likelihood that a user clicks on an ad is often modeled by optimizing for the click through rates rat…