A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Local mappings relate dual and primal factor graphs for efficient marginal probability estimation.
Efficient algorithm for Bayesian networks reduces marginal probability distribution computation.
In order to protect brokers from customer defaults in a volatile market, an active margin system is proposed for the transactions of margin lending in China. The probability of negative return under the condition that collaterals are liquidated in a falling market is used to measure the risk associated with margin loan…
Estimates joint probability distribution from 1-way marginals using low-rank tensors and random projections.
This work proposes a new method to estimate joint probability from pairwise marginals, reducing sample complexity.
Proposes logistic-beta process for modeling dependent probabilities with beta marginals.
Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.
Recent research has made significant progress on the problem of bounding log partition functions for exponential family graphical models. Such bounds have associated dual parameters that are often used as heuristic estimates of the marginal probabilities required in inference and learning. However these variational est…
Quantum probability theory reveals hidden structure in joint probability distributions.
Proposes a method to construct risk-neutral marginals from arbitrage-free option prices.
The Skorokhod embedding problem aims to represent a given probability measure on the real line as the distribution of Brownian motion stopped at a chosen stopping time. In this paper, we consider an extension of the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem to the case of finitely-many marginal constraints. Using the classic…
The paper examines how heavy-tailed risks behave under Gaussian copula models.
The problem of determining the joint probability distributions for correlated random variables with pre-specified marginals is considered. When the joint distribution satisfying all the required conditions is not unique, the "most unbiased" choice corresponds to the distribution of maximum entropy. The calculation of t…
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through -fold partitioning or leave-$p…
We present a new family of models that is based on graphs that may have undirected, directed and bidirected edges. We name these new models marginal AMP (MAMP) chain graphs because each of them is Markov equivalent to some AMP chain graph under marginalization of some of its nodes. However, MAMP chain graphs do not onl…
We give polynomial-time algorithms for the exact computation of lowest-energy (ground) states, worst margin violators, log partition functions, and marginal edge probabilities in certain binary undirected graphical models. Our approach provides an interesting alternative to the well-known graph cut paradigm in that it …
Let X be a data matrix of rank ρ, whose rows represent n points in d-dimensional space. The linear support vector machine constructs a hyperplane separator that maximizes the 1-norm soft margin. We develop a new oblivious dimension reduction technique which is precomputed and can be applied to any input matrix X. We pr…
New method tightens bounds on causation probabilities using independent datasets.
The concept of refinement from probability elicitation is considered for proper scoring rules. Taking directions from the axioms of probability, refinement is further clarified using a Hilbert space interpretation and reformulated into the underlying data distribution setting where connections to maximal marginal diver…
Margin system for margin loans using cash and stock as collateral is considered in this paper, which is the line of defence for brokers against risk associated with margin trading. The conditional probability of negative return is used as risk measure, and a recursive algorithm is proposed to realize this measure under…
Study examines liquidation, leverage, and optimal margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
An active margin system for margin loans is proposed for Chinese margin lending market, which uses cash and randomly selected stock as collateral. The conditional probability of negative return(CPNR) after a forced sale of securities from under-margined account in a falling market is used to measure the risk faced by t…
This paper studies Fenchel-Young losses, a generic way to construct convex loss functions from a regularization function. We analyze their properties in depth, showing that they unify many well-known loss functions and allow to create useful new ones easily. Fenchel-Young losses constructed from a generalized entropy, …
Proposes a new distance metric for multi-marginal optimal transport.
A mesh-free method solves continuum-marginal optimal transport problems.
GFlowNets sample diverse candidates in active learning.
Introduces gradient decay in Softmax for better generalization.
MDMA provides closed-form marginals and conditionals for deep networks.
Evidential Softmax preserves multimodality in sparse probability distributions for generative models.
The marginal maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation problem, which calculates the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of a subset of variables with the remaining variables marginalized, is an important inference problem in many models, such as those with hidden variables or uncertain parameters. Unfo…
The aim of this short note is to draw attention to a method by which the partition function and marginal probabilities for a certain class of random fields on complete graphs can be computed in polynomial time. This class includes Ising models with homogeneous pairwise potentials but arbitrary (inhomogeneous) unary pot…
A new method estimates marginal likelihood using normalizing flows.
Combines MCTM and NF for flexible multivariate density regression with interpretable marginals.
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
A new method for semi-supervised learning with missing data using GMM and margin confidence.
Graphical models use graphs to compactly capture stochastic dependencies amongst a collection of random variables. Inference over graphical models corresponds to finding marginal probability distributions given joint probability distributions. In general, this is computationally intractable, which has led to a quest fo…
This paper is devoted to the quantification and analysis of marginal risk contribution of a given single financial institution i to the risk of a financial system s. Our work expands on the CoVaR concept proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier as a tool for the measurement of marginal systemic risk contribution. We first g…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
Proposes MFSWB for marginal fairness in SWB, improving efficiency and performance.
New estimator reduces variance in off-policy evaluation for contextual bandits.
Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
Accelerates MMLE using SVGD with Nesterov acceleration.
Given a matrix , a linear feasibility problem (of which linear classification is a special case) aims to find a solution to a primal problem or a certificate for the dual problem which is a probability distribution . Inspired by the continued importance of "large-margin cla…
A framework estimates categorical distributions under constraints, ensuring generality and uniqueness.
Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically either uses MCMC schemes which target the joint posterior of the parameters and some…
Bayesian evidence helps compare models but can overfit.
SUMO provides unbiased log marginal likelihood estimation for latent variable models.
The paper derives a formula for factorizing categorical data to improve Bayes classifiers.