A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method for interpreting non-linear models using forward marginal effects.
Max-min margin Markov networks improve consistency in structured prediction.
Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.
MACQ method explains deep learning models by analyzing feature contributions across prediction levels.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
Deep neural network (DNN) regression models are widely used in applications requiring state-of-the-art predictive accuracy. However, until recently there has been little work on accurate uncertainty quantification for predictions from such models. We add to this literature by outlining an approach to constructing predi…
Proposes a tabular transformer model to maintain feature effect intelligibility.
Link prediction is a fundamental task in statistical network analysis. Recent advances have been made on learning flexible nonparametric Bayesian latent feature models for link prediction. In this paper, we present a max-margin learning method for such nonparametric latent feature relational models. Our approach attemp…
Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this paper, the inference process is first defined to be the minimization of a convex f…
Improves survival prediction model calibration for better individual decision-making.
We present a max-margin nonparametric latent feature model, which unites the ideas of max-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics to discover discriminative latent features for link prediction and automatically infer the unknown latent social dimension. By minimizing a hinge-loss using the linear expectation operat…
Paper corrects Max-Margin loss for multi-label tasks.
Deep generative models (DGMs) are effective on learning multilayered representations of complex data and performing inference of input data by exploring the generative ability. However, it is relatively insufficient to empower the discriminative ability of DGMs on making accurate predictions. This paper presents max-ma…
The paper develops distribution-free methods for ordinal classification.
Stacked conformal prediction simplifies model validation.
We consider the problem of online multiclass classification with partial feedback, where an algorithm predicts a class for a new instance in each round and only receives its correctness. Although several methods have been developed for this problem, recent challenging real-world applications require further performance…
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
As shown in recent research, deep neural networks can perfectly fit randomly labeled data, but with very poor accuracy on held out data. This phenomenon indicates that loss functions such as cross-entropy are not a reliable indicator of generalization. This leads to the crucial question of how generalization gap should…
New research shows the maximum ℓ1-margin classifier doesn't adapt to sparse ground truths.
fmeffects package interprets non-linear models in plain language.
Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian modeling and predictive strengths of max-margin learning. However, Monte Carlo sampli…
Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of max-margin supervised topic models for both continuous and categorical response var…
New methods improve Bayesian inference and decision-making in online learning.
Max-margin learning is a powerful approach to building classifiers and structured output predictors. Recent work on max-margin supervised topic models has successfully integrated it with Bayesian topic models to discover discriminative latent semantic structures and make accurate predictions for unseen testing data. Ho…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
Adapts conformal prediction for missing data, ensuring valid coverage.
Constructs tail-specific prediction intervals for financial applications
This work introduces a noise-adaptive conformal inference method for better prediction sets in noisy data.
Study on neuron dynamics for XOR classification with zero-margin.
The paper tackles fVaR prediction methods in finance.
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through -fold partitioning or leave-$p…
The paper calibrates geophysical predictions using marginal distributions and machine learning.
Two methods improve Gaussian process predictive distributions' calibration.
Unified approach for optimizing predictions in linear programming and inverse problems.
New margin bound improves generalization for voting classifiers.
This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the …
CMRM improves robustness in noisy label settings without requiring privileged knowledge.
Marginal MAP inference involves making MAP predictions in systems defined with latent variables or missing information. It is significantly more difficult than pure marginalization and MAP tasks, for which a large class of efficient and convergent variational algorithms, such as dual decomposition, exist. In this work,…
In this paper, we reformulate the forest representation learning approach as an additive model which boosts the augmented feature instead of the prediction. We substantially improve the upper bound of generalization gap from to , while - the margin r…
Develops bounds predicting deep learning generalization using optimal transport.
Improved Gaussian process regression with tighter log marginal likelihood bounds.
Boosting and other ensemble methods combine a large number of weak classifiers through weighted voting to produce stronger predictive models. To explain the successful performance of boosting algorithms, Schapire et al. (1998) showed that AdaBoost is especially effective at increasing the margins of the training data. …
The Neural Testbed evaluates joint predictions of neural agents, revealing their limitations.
New classifiers converge under large data, simplifying complex models.
Data-driven prediction of molecular properties presents unique challenges to the design of machine learning methods concerning data structure/dimensionality, symmetry adaption, and confidence management. In this paper, we present a kernel-based pipeline that can learn and predict the atomization energy of molecules wit…
Bayesian deep learning improves neural network accuracy and generalization.
Support vector regression (SVR) is one of the most popular machine learning algorithms aiming to generate the optimal regression curve through maximizing the minimal margin of selected training samples, i.e., support vectors. Recent researchers reveal that maximizing the margin distribution of whole training dataset ra…