A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper introduces canonical parameters for marginally trapped surfaces in Minkowski space.
Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically either uses MCMC schemes which target the joint posterior of the parameters and some…
Paper analyzes GMM for separable data with various parameter structures.
New study reveals a polynomial penalty for adapting to unknown margin parameters in batched nonparametric bandits.
Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
We address the problem of learning the parameters in graphical models when inference is intractable. A common strategy in this case is to replace the partition function with its Bethe approximation. We show that there exists a regime of empirical marginals where such Bethe learning will fail. By failure we mean that th…
Efficient algorithms improve learning of large-margin halfspaces.
Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to otherwise intractable MCMC methods. The performance of the approximation is limited to t…
Due to the intractable partition function, the exact likelihood function for a Markov random field (MRF), in many situations, can only be approximated. Major approximation approaches include pseudolikelihood and Laplace approximation. In this paper, we propose a novel way of approximating the likelihood function throug…
Bayesian models use hyperparameters to indirectly assign priors, and this work shows how these priors can be derived from maximum entropy principles.
Efficiently estimates marginal posteriors for complex simulations.
We analyze the semi-hard triplet loss using Edgeworth expansion for better understanding of its behavior.
We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a relaxation of the marginal likelihood obtained by considering the density of the variable…
This paper works out fair values of stock loan model with automatic termination clause, cap and margin. This stock loan is treated as a generalized perpetual American option with possibly negative interest rate and some constraints. Since it helps a bank to control the risk, the banks charge less service fees compared …
Identifies interpretable generative model for multivariate data.
Kernel methods have revolutionized the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning. Their success, however, critically depends on the choice of kernel parameters. Using Gaussian process (GP) classification as a working example, this paper focuses on Bayesian inference of covariance (kernel) parameters using Mark…
We give polynomial-time algorithms for the exact computation of lowest-energy (ground) states, worst margin violators, log partition functions, and marginal edge probabilities in certain binary undirected graphical models. Our approach provides an interesting alternative to the well-known graph cut paradigm in that it …
This work analyzes the maximum-margin bias in quasi-homogeneous neural networks.
Neural models improve GLMMs for complex data.
Develops a new algorithm for estimating model parameters using interacting particle systems.
Improved Gaussian process regression with tighter log marginal likelihood bounds.
A marginally trapped surface in the four-dimensional Minkowski space is a spacelike surface whose mean curvature vector is lightlike at each point. We introduce meridian surfaces of parabolic type as one-parameter systems of meridians of a rotational hypersurface with lightlike axis in Minkowski 4-space and find their …
A mesh-free method solves continuum-marginal optimal transport problems.
It has been argued that in supervised classification tasks, in practice it may be more sensible to perform model selection with respect to some more focused model selection score, like the supervised (conditional) marginal likelihood, than with respect to the standard marginal likelihood criterion. However, for most Ba…
Develops methods for constructing likelihoods and priors for Bayesian networks.
New PG samplers improve inference in coupled state-space models.
New DP algorithms with margin guarantees for various hypothesis sets.
The marginal maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation problem, which calculates the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of a subset of variables with the remaining variables marginalized, is an important inference problem in many models, such as those with hidden variables or uncertain parameters. Unfo…
New findings on the max margin problem in neural networks.
Learning knowledge representation is an increasingly important technology that supports a variety of machine learning related applications. However, the choice of hyperparameters is seldom justified and usually relies on exhaustive search. Understanding the effect of hyperparameter combinations on embedding quality is …
Overview of marginally trapped surfaces in various spacetimes.
Study on convergence rates for optimal transport with regularization.
The paper proves a margin inequality for separating hyperplanes, useful for analyzing algorithmic bias.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) offer a powerful approach to modeling diversity in many applications where the goal is to select a diverse subset. We study the problem of learning the parameters (the kernel matrix) of a DPP from labeled training data. We make two contributions. First, we show how to reparameterize…
A framework estimates categorical distributions under constraints, ensuring generality and uniqueness.
We study the parameter estimation problem in mixture models with observational nonidentifiability: the full model (also containing hidden variables) is identifiable, but the marginal (observed) model is not. Hence global maxima of the marginal likelihood are (infinitely) degenerate and predictions of the marginal likel…
The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks. (1) Neural networks are typically underspecified by the data, and can represent many different but high performing models…
Simplified identification methods for causal inference with arbitrary interventional distributions.
SUMO provides unbiased log marginal likelihood estimation for latent variable models.
A marginally trapped surface in the four-dimensional Minkowski space is a spacelike surface whose mean curvature vector is lightlike at each point. We associate a geometrically determined moving frame field to such a surface and using the derivative formulas for this frame field we obtain seven invariant functions. Our…
Hidden variables are ubiquitous in practical data analysis, and therefore modeling marginal densities and doing inference with the resulting models is an important problem in statistics, machine learning, and causal inference. Recently, a new type of graphical model, called the nested Markov model, was developed which …
New neural network approach for optimizing latent variable models.
Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected shortfall when the univariate marginals are known exactly and additional expert inf…
We study the connections between spectral clustering and the problems of maximum margin clustering, and estimation of the components of level sets of a density function. Specifically, we obtain bounds on the eigenvectors of graph Laplacian matrices in terms of the between cluster separation, and within cluster connecti…
A method for logistic regression inference using both internal and external data.
One of the main open problems in the theory of multi-category margin classification is the form of the optimal dependency of a guaranteed risk on the number C of categories, the sample size m and the margin parameter gamma. From a practical point of view, the theoretical analysis of generalization performance contribut…
We consider the problem of online prediction in a marginally stable linear dynamical system subject to bounded adversarial or (non-isotropic) stochastic perturbations. This poses two challenges. Firstly, the system is in general unidentifiable, so recent and classical results on parameter recovery do not apply. Secondl…
We consider two connected aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter for high-dimensional discrete graphical models: the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (mle) and its computation. When the data is sparse, there are many zeros in the contingency table and the maximum likelihood estimate of th…