New findings show margins are not sufficient for explaining gradient boosting performance.
problem The inadequacy of margin explanations in explaining the performance of gradient boosting.
method Demonstrated and proved a stronger margin-based generalization bound for boosted classifiers.
result Proved a stronger margin-based generalization bound that explains the performance of modern gradient boosters.
CTE improves explanation estimation with less data and faster computation.
problem Inefficient and inaccurate explanation estimation in machine learning models.
method Distribution compression through kernel thinning to reduce sample size.
result CTE significantly improves accuracy and stability of explanation estimation.
Boosting is one of the most successful ideas in machine learning. The most well-accepted explanations for the low generalization error of boosting algorithms such as AdaBoost stem from margin theory. The study of margins in the context of boosting algorithms was initiated by Schapire, Freund, Bartlett and Lee (1998) an…
fmeffects package interprets non-linear models in plain language.
problem Interpreting complex non-linear models.
method Forward marginal effects for model-agnostic explanations.
result First software implementation of forward marginal effects.
MACQ method explains deep learning models by analyzing feature contributions across prediction levels.
problem Explaining deep learning model predictions.
method Global gradient-based, model-agnostic approach focusing on marginal attribution.
result MACQ separates feature contributions from interaction effects and visualizes 3-way relationships.
Boosting algorithms produce a classifier by iteratively combining base hypotheses. It has been observed experimentally that the generalization error keeps improving even after achieving zero training error. One popular explanation attributes this to improvements in margins. A common goal in a long line of research, is …
Proposes GPR with local explanation for feature interpretation.
problem Lack of feature interpretation in Gaussian process regression.
method Introduces a locally linear model to explain feature contributions in GPR predictions.
result Achieves comparable predictive performance to GPR and superior interpretability.
We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanatio…
In many scientific contexts, different investigators experiment with or observe different variables with data from a domain in which the distinct variable sets might well be related. This sort of fragmentation sometimes occurs in molecular biology, whether in studies of RNA expression or studies of protein interaction,…
New method improves model explainability.
problem Improper model explanations fail to reflect true data-generating process.
method Shapley Marginal Surplus for Strong Models
result Significant outperformance in inferential capabilities.
An imprecise SHAP method explains class probabilities with limited data.
problem Explaining class probabilities with limited training data.
method New approach for computing feature marginal contributions and general approach to interval-valued Shapley values.
result The imprecise SHAP method improves explanation of class probabilities.
GADGET framework decomposes global feature effects using recursive partitioning.
problem Misleading global feature effects when feature interactions are present.
method Generalized additive decomposition of global effects (GADGET) based on recursive partitioning.
result Minimizes interaction-related heterogeneity of local feature effects.
ITF improves DSR but inflates curvature, while marginal likelihood reduces it, affecting QoIs.
problem Curvature mismatch between teacher forcing and marginal likelihood in chaotic dynamical systems.
method Comparing objective-induced curvatures of ITF and marginal likelihood in a probabilistic switching augmentation of AL-RNNs.
result Curvature inflation by ITF and reduction by marginal likelihood affect dynamical quantities of interest.
Default-ERM shortcut learning persists even without additional information.
problem Default-ERM shortcut learning in perception tasks despite stable feature sufficiency.
method Studied linear perception task; developed margin control (MARG-CTRL) loss functions.
result Margin control mitigates shortcut learning on various tasks.
AdaBoost improves binary classification in robust one-bit compressed sensing with adversarial errors.
problem Binary classification in robust one-bit compressed sensing with adversarial errors.
method AdaBoost and max-ℓ1-margin-classifier approach, with convergence rates improved under certain feature conditions. result Improved convergence rates and explanation for harmless interpolating adversarial noise.
There is a large literature explaining why AdaBoost is a successful classifier. The literature on AdaBoost focuses on classifier margins and boosting's interpretation as the optimization of an exponential likelihood function. These existing explanations, however, have been pointed out to be incomplete. A random forest …
PredDiff measures prediction changes while marginalizing features, offering new insights into interaction effects.
problem Understanding interaction effects in black-box models.
method Model-agnostic, local attribution method based on probability theory.
result Introduced a new measure for interaction effects between arbitrary feature subsets.
Exploration is critical to a reinforcement learning agent's performance in its given environment. Prior exploration methods are often based on using heuristic auxiliary predictions to guide policy behavior, lacking a mathematically-grounded objective with clear properties. In contrast, we recast exploration as a proble…
Posterior collapse in Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) arises when the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior for a subset of latent variables. This paper presents a simple and intuitive explanation for posterior collapse through the analysis of linear VAEs and their direct correspondence with Prob…
Neural networks predict US recessions with SHAP method.
problem Forecasting US recessions using machine learning.
method Long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models compared to linear models. SHAP method applied for interpretation.
result Neural networks can capture business cycle asymmetries and nonlinearities.
One approach to monitoring a dynamic system relies on decomposition of the system into weakly interacting subsystems. An earlier paper introduced a notion of weak interaction called separability, and showed that it leads to exact propagation of marginals for prediction. This paper addresses two questions left open by t…
Paper proposes MDAT to stabilize domain alignment in label-scarce settings.
problem Stable and comprehensive domain alignment in label-scarce settings.
method Max-margin Domain-Adversarial Training (MDAT) with Adversarial Reconstruction Network (ARN).
result MDAT stabilizes gradient reversing and achieves strong robustness to hyper-parameters.
Many methods to explain black-box models, whether local or global, are additive. In this paper, we study global additive explanations for non-additive models, focusing on four explanation methods: partial dependence, Shapley explanations adapted to a global setting, distilled additive explanations, and gradient-based e…
Despite existing work on ensuring generalization of neural networks in terms of scale sensitive complexity measures, such as norms, margin and sharpness, these complexity measures do not offer an explanation of why neural networks generalize better with over-parametrization. In this work we suggest a novel complexity m…
AXE evaluates explanations to avoid misleading Rashomon set model selection.
problem Evaluating explanations for Rashomon set models to avoid false selection.
method Proposed AXE method to evaluate explanation quality.
result AXE detects adversarial fairwashing with 100% success rate.
EviTrack improves sequential prediction in delayed disambiguation scenarios.
problem Challenges in sequential prediction with delayed disambiguation where early observations are ambiguous.
method EviTrack operates over latent trajectories, applying evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data.
result EviTrack outperforms sampling-based baselines in a controlled synthetic benchmark, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery.
The paper proposes criteria and methods for evaluating and aggregating feature-based model explanations.
problem Lack of quantitative evaluation criteria for feature-based model explanations.
method Developed quantitative evaluation criteria (low sensitivity, high faithfulness, low complexity), devised a framework for aggregation, and derived a new aggregate Shapley value explanation function.
result A new aggregate Shapley value explanation function that minimizes sensitivity.
New definition reveals encoding explanations that retain predictive power.
problem Challenges in evaluating and identifying encoding explanations.
method Developed a definition of encoding based on conditional dependence.
result Existing evaluation scores do not rank non-encoding explanations correctly, but STRIPE-X does.
GRANITE unifies feature-based explanation methods to reduce disagreement.
problem Disagreement among feature-based explanation methods.
method GRANITE partitions feature space into regions minimizing interaction and distribution influences.
result Unified and consistent feature explanations.
Differentially private algorithms protect model explanations from leaking training data.
problem Model explanations can leak training data, compromising privacy.
method Adaptive differentially private gradient descent algorithm to produce accurate, private explanations.
result Privacy amplification and reduction of overall privacy loss on explanation data.
We consider objective evaluation measures of saliency explanations for complex black-box machine learning models. We propose simple robust variants of two notions that have been considered in recent literature: (in)fidelity, and sensitivity. We analyze optimal explanations with respect to both these measures, and while…
Improves global counterfactual explanations for model recourse.
problem Inability to provide explanations beyond local instances.
method Investigates and improves Actionable Recourse Summaries (AReS) for global counterfactual explanations.
result Develops more efficient and interactive explainability tools.
New framework evaluates model explanations based on decision task improvement.
problem Evaluation of model explanations often misses practical value.
method Decision-theoretic framework quantifying three key values.
result Provides benchmarks and interprets human-AI decision support.
We define and compute plausible counterfactual explanations using density constraints.
problem Efficiently compute plausible counterfactual explanations for machine learning models.
method Propose and study a formal definition of plausible counterfactual explanations, use density estimators, and introduce convex density constraints.
result Convex density constraints ensure plausible and feasible counterfactual explanations.
G-SHAP generates multiple types of explanations for machine learning models.
problem Understanding model predictions and their differences across groups.
method Generalization of SHAP method to produce additional types of explanations.
result G-SHAP produces explanations for classification, intergroup differences, and model failure.
LLMs' explanations are often insufficient and vary with input distribution.
problem Evaluating the sufficiency of LLM explanations without predefined biases.
method Generalizing sufficiency to arbitrary explanations, using LLM's input beliefs, and introducing SCSuff metric.
result Explanation sufficiency can vary with input distribution and is weakly correlated with model size, accuracy, or output entropy.
Study finds visual explanations do not significantly improve human accuracy or trust in model predictions.
problem Measuring the impact of visual explanations on human accuracy and trust in model predictions.
method Randomized controlled trial with image-based age prediction task, varying levels of explanation quality.
result Visual explanations do not significantly alter human accuracy or trust in the model.
Despite a growing literature on explaining neural networks, no consensus has been reached on how to explain a neural network decision or how to evaluate an explanation. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. First, we investigate schemes to combine explanation methods and reduce model uncertainty to obtain a sing…
New method improves HPO interpretability without sacrificing performance.
problem Difficulty in understanding HPO algorithms due to black-box nature.
method Coupling Bayesian optimization with Bayesian Algorithm Execution.
result More reliable IML explanations without compromising optimization performance.
Many proposed methods for explaining machine learning predictions are in fact challenging to understand for nontechnical consumers. This paper builds upon an alternative consumer-driven approach called TED that asks for explanations to be provided in training data, along with target labels. Using semi-synthetic data fr…
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categ…
BDeu marginal likelihood score is a popular model selection criterion for selecting a Bayesian network structure based on sample data. This non-informative scoring criterion assigns same score for network structures that encode same independence statements. However, before applying the BDeu score, one must determine a …
This research investigates reliable local explanations for machine listening models.
problem Generating reliable local explanations for machine listening models.
method Investigates the sensitivity of SoundLIME explanations to input perturbations and proposes a novel method for identifying suitable content types.
result SoundLIME explanations are sensitive to the content in occluded input regions, and the average magnitude of input mel-spectrogram bins is the most suitable content type for temporal explanations.
Defines explanations for classifier outcomes using causal concepts.
problem Understanding classifier outcomes in a causal context.
method Proposes a new definition of explanation based on causality, compares it with existing notions, and evaluates it experimentally.
result Experimental evaluation shows the new definition's effectiveness on financial datasets.
TabPFN model outperforms previous methods on tabular data.
problem Improving performance on tabular data regression and classification.
method Transformer-based deep learning model for approximate Bayesian inference.
result TabPFN outperforms previous methods on datasets with up to 10,000 samples.
This research improves interpretability in sequential explanations using mental models.
problem Improving interpretability in sequential explanations between two parties.
method A reinforcement learning framework that selects explanations based on the explainee's mental model.
result Mental model-based policies increase interpretability over random selection in multiple sequential explanations.
R package for counterfactual explanation methods.
problem Lack of unified interfaces for counterfactual explanation methods.
method Developed a modular R6-based interface for three existing counterfactual methods and proposed extensions.
result Comparison of implemented methods' quality and runtime behavior.
Explanation in machine learning and related fields such as artificial intelligence aims at making machine learning models and their decisions understandable to humans. Existing work suggests that personalizing explanations might help to improve understandability. In this work, we derive a conceptualization of personali…