There are two major paradigms of white-box adversarial attacks that attempt to impose input perturbations. The first paradigm, called the fix-perturbation attack, crafts adversarial samples within a given perturbation level. The second paradigm, called the zero-confidence attack, finds the smallest perturbation needed …
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “margin confidence”
A new method for semi-supervised learning with missing data using GMM and margin confidence.
problem Handling missing data in semi-supervised learning with classification uncertainty.
method Explicitly models missingness mechanism, uses margin confidence and Aranda Ordaz function, develops ECM algorithm.
result Effective reduction of bias and robustness in semi-supervised learning with substantial missing labels.
We develop a framework for post model selection inference, via marginal screening, in linear regression. At the core of this framework is a result that characterizes the exact distribution of linear functions of the response , conditional on the model being selected (``condition on selection" framework). This allows…
Paper presents robust confidence sequences for means with known moment bounds and arbitrary corruption.
problem Tackles robustness to outliers and adversarial corruptions in mean estimation.
method Designs new robust exponential supermartingales to create confidence sequences.
result Achieves optimal width and shows smaller margin of error compared to fixed-time robust methods.
The paper introduces multicalibration to improve confidence scores in LLMs.
problem Improving the reliability and interpretability of confidence scores for LLMs.
method Forming groupings of prompt/completion pairs correlated with correctness, using clustering and self-annotation. Developing multicalibration algorithms to reduce overfitting.
result Our techniques yield confidence scores that significantly improve calibration and accuracy compared to existing methods.
We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the best of our knowledge) any work on unbiased estimation of the marginal likelihood …
New DP algorithms with margin guarantees for various hypothesis sets.
problem Differential privacy in machine learning with margin guarantees.
method Developed pure and efficient DP learning algorithms for linear, kernel-based, and neural network hypotheses.
result Margin guarantees are independent of input dimension and hypothesis type.
Knowing what you know: valid and validated confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel predictionstat.ML
Develops methods for valid and validated confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel prediction.
problem Challenges of typical conformal prediction methods in multiclass and multilabel problems, especially uneven coverage.
method Leverages quantile regression to build methods that always guarantee correct coverage and asymptotically optimal conditional coverage, addressing label interactions with tree-structured classifiers.
result Empirical evaluation suggests more robust coverage of confidence sets.
Improved conformal prediction for better conditional coverage of classifier predictions.
problem Achieving exact conditional coverage in finite samples for prediction sets.
method Developed a variant of conformal prediction targeting coverage conditional on confidence and trust score.
result Empirically improved conditional coverage properties compared to standard conformal prediction.
New method improves conditional coverage of conformal prediction.
problem Improving conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Trainable transformation of conformity scores to improve conditional coverage.
result Highly adaptive to local data structure, outperforming existing methods.
Data-driven prediction of molecular properties presents unique challenges to the design of machine learning methods concerning data structure/dimensionality, symmetry adaption, and confidence management. In this paper, we present a kernel-based pipeline that can learn and predict the atomization energy of molecules wit…
New method improves calibration of neural networks by targeting robust margins and local smoothness.
problem Poor calibration of neural networks, leading to unreliable confidence estimates.
method Intervene on training procedure by targeting robust margins and local smoothness.
result Improved out-of-sample calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected shortfall when the univariate marginals are known exactly and additional expert inf…
New method improves certified robustness for classifier confidence.
problem Certifying confidence in classifier predictions.
method Randomized smoothing with modified Neyman-Pearson lemma.
result Certified radii for prediction confidence improved.
The ultimate goal of a supervised learning algorithm is to produce models constructed on the training data that can generalize well to new examples. In classification, functional margin maximization -- correctly classifying as many training examples as possible with maximal confidence --has been known to construct mode…
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
Marginals Versus Copulas: Which Account For More Model Risk In Multivariate Risk Forecasting?q-fin.RM
Copulas outperform marginal models in multivariate risk forecasting, reducing model risk by narrowing down the set of models.
problem Model risk in multivariate risk forecasting, especially during crises.
method Comprehensive empirical study comparing Copula-GARCH models with fixed marginals, copulas, or neither.
result Model risk is almost entirely due to copula choice, not marginal models.
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
problem High-impact events require very high confidence prediction intervals, but classical methods provide uninformative intervals.
method Bridge extreme value statistics and conformal prediction to provide reliable and informative prediction intervals.
result Provides reliable and informative prediction intervals with high-confidence coverage.
Conformal Margin Risk Minimization: An Envelope Framework for Robust Learning under Label Noisecs.LG
CMRM improves robustness in noisy label settings without requiring privileged knowledge.
problem Learning with noisy labels without privileged knowledge.
method Conformal Margin Risk Minimization (CMRM) framework.
result CMRM consistently improves accuracy and reduces mislabeling under various noise conditions.
This work addresses various open questions in the theory of active learning for nonparametric classification. Our contributions are both statistical and algorithmic: -We establish new minimax-rates for active learning under common \textit{noise conditions}. These rates display interesting transitions -- due to the inte…
Paper certifies intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
problem Certifying intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
method Exploits likelihood ordering to induce halfspace constraints, enabling adaptive geometric partitioning and computable bounds on p-values.
result Efficient and provably sound algorithm for certifying intersection, disjointness, or indeterminate result.
This work introduces COLA, a strategy to aggregate conformal prediction sets efficiently.
problem Efficiently combining multiple conformity scores to reduce prediction set size.
method Introduces COnfidence-Level Allocation (COLA) to optimally allocate confidence levels across sets.
result COLA achieves smaller prediction sets than state-of-the-art methods while maintaining valid coverage.
MARVEL curbs memorization of noisy labels in deep nets.
problem Noisy labels degrade deep net performance.
method MARVEL tracks classification margins to identify and abandon noisy instances.
result MARVEL outperforms baselines on noisy datasets.
This paper proposes a unified framework to quantify local and global inferential uncertainty for high dimensional nonparanormal graphical models. In particular, we consider the problems of testing the presence of a single edge and constructing a uniform confidence subgraph. Due to the presence of unknown marginal trans…
Balancing the Scales: A Theoretical and Algorithmic Framework for Learning from Imbalanced Datacs.LG
New framework for learning from imbalanced data with theoretical guarantees.
problem Class imbalance in machine learning, especially in multi-class problems.
method Theoretical framework and new margin loss function for imbalanced classification.
result Proves strong -consistency of the proposed margin loss function.
We study agnostic active learning, where the goal is to learn a classifier in a pre-specified hypothesis class interactively with as few label queries as possible, while making no assumptions on the true function generating the labels. The main algorithms for this problem are {\em{disagreement-based active learning}}, …
Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian neural networks that learn approximate distributions on weights to infer prediction …
The paper develops p-values for outlier detection using conformal inference.
problem Detecting outliers in nonparametric data sets.
method Conformal inference framework for constructing marginally valid but mutually dependent p-values.
result Valid p-values for outlier detection with conditional independence and marginal false discovery rate control.
We study the asymptotic behavior of the difference as , where is a risk measure equipped with a confidence level parameter , and where and are non-negative random variables whose tail probability functions are regularly varying. The case where …
New methods for estimating and inferring nonparametric structural functions and elasticities.
problem Estimating and inferring nonparametric structural functions and their derivatives.
method Data-driven sieve dimension choice and uniform confidence bands construction.
result Optimal estimation and inference procedures with minimax rates of convergence.
We consider a standard binary classification problem. The performance of any binary classifier based on the training data is characterized by the excess risk. We study Bahadur's type exponential bounds on the minimax accuracy confidence function based on the excess risk. We study how this quantity depends on the comple…
In this paper, we develop a theory of market crashes resulting from a deleveraging shock. We consider two representative investors in a market holding different opinions about the public available information. The deleveraging shock forces the high confidence investors to liquidate their risky assets to pay back their …
The paper introduces neural INGARCH models for time series of counts.
problem Analyzing time series of counts using traditional INGARCH models.
method Combining artificial neural networks with INGARCH models.
result Neural INGARCH models outperform traditional models in information loss.
Robust Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift via Physics-Informed Structural Causal Modelcs.LG
CP improves robustness against distribution shift using physics-informed structural causal models.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions under distributional shift.
method Physics-informed structural causal model (PI-SCM) to upper bound coverage difference.
result PI-SCM improves coverage robustness across confidence levels and test domains.
BaNk-UCB tackles batched nonparametric bandits with k-NN regression and UCB.
problem Sequential decision-making with limited online feedback in domains like medicine and marketing.
method Combines k-NN regression with UCB principle for fully nonparametric, adaptive, and simple implementation.
result Near-optimal regret guarantees under Lipschitz smoothness and margin assumptions, with minimax-optimal rates.
Improving Reward-Conditioned Policies for Multi-Armed Bandits using Normalized Weight Functionscs.LG
Improved RCPs for MABs using normalized weight functions.
problem Slow convergence and inferior rewards in RCPs for MABs.
method Generalized marginalization of rewards using normalized weight functions.
result Improved RCPs become competitive with classic methods.
Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional distances, focusing on two kinds of target parameters. The first is the counterfa…
Contextual information helps identify the best arm more efficiently.
problem Best arm identification with contextual covariate information.
method Proposed a context-aware version of the 'Track-and-Stop' strategy.
result Expected number of arm draws matches lower bound asymptotically.
Selective classification can worsen accuracy disparities between groups.
problem Selective classification can magnify existing accuracy disparities between various groups.
method Study of margin distribution and distributionally-robust models.
result Selective classification can uniformly improve each group on distributionally-robust models.
Introduces gradient decay in Softmax for better generalization.
problem Improving generalization performance in neural networks.
method Gradient decay hyperparameter in Softmax for varying gradient rates based on probability.
result Gradient decay rate affects generalization performance and can be tuned for better optimization.
Study on computational aspects of replicable learning, bridging statistical and algorithmic perspectives.
problem Understanding the computational connections between replicability and various learning paradigms.
method Design of replicable learners, lifting framework, and transformation techniques.
result Efficient replicable learners for specific learning problems under various distributions.
Distributional Shift-Aware Off-Policy Interval Estimation: A Unified Error Quantification Frameworkstat.ML
Unified framework for error quantification in off-policy evaluation with distributional shift.
problem Establishing high-confidence CI for target policy value from offline data.
method Unified error analysis quantifying misspecification and sampling errors.
result Achieves tightest possible CI and robustness against distributional shifts.
This paper introduces new loss functions for balanced multi-class classification.
problem Balancing class imbalance in multi-class classification.
method Introduces two new surrogate loss families: GLA and GCA.
result GCA losses offer stronger theoretical guarantees in imbalanced settings.
Optimal ability estimation in adaptive testing with binary responses.
problem Estimating a continuous ability parameter from sequential binary responses.
method Adaptive selection of questions to maximize Fisher information, updating estimate using method-of-moments, and deciding accuracy with a test statistic.
result Fisher-tracking strategy achieves optimal performance in fixed-confidence and fixed-budget regimes.
Bayesian methods improve OoD detection in deep networks.
problem Detecting Out-of-Distribution (OoD) inputs in deep neural networks.
method Three Bayesian inference approaches applied to VAE weights.
result Improved OoD detection scores over benchmarks.
Proposes a weighted conformal approach for cluster label uncertainty.
problem Cluster label uncertainty in unlabeled data.
method Develops a conformal inference algorithm to correct label mismatch.
result Improves confidence set size in nonlinear and high-dimensional clustering.
A new method combines synthetic data analysis and DP generation to produce accurate uncertainty estimates.
problem Invalid inferences from DP synthetic data analysis.
method Combining synthetic data analysis techniques from MI and NA Bayesian modeling with a novel noise-aware synthetic data generation algorithm.
result Accurate confidence intervals from DP synthetic data are produced, wider with tighter privacy.
Machine learning algorithms have been effectively applied into various real world tasks. However, it is difficult to provide high-quality machine learning solutions to accommodate an unknown distribution of input datasets; this difficulty is called the uncertainty prediction problems. In this paper, a margin-based Pare…