Optimal transport adapted for contaminated probabilities, showing equivalence under specific conditions.
problem Adapting optimal transport for ε-contaminated sets. method Generalized optimal transport problems with lower probabilities, showing equivalence under ε-contaminations. result Monge's and Kantorovich's problems coincide under ε-contaminated sets, but not always. New bounds on continuous random variables' right-tail probabilities.
problem Finding precise upper and lower limits for right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables.
method Developed new bounds based on PDF, first derivative, and two parameters.
result The new bounds are tight for various continuous random variables.
Method bounds tail probabilities of continuous RVs.
problem Bounding tail probabilities of continuous random variables.
method Setting continuous, positive, and strictly decreasing/increasing functions to derive upper and lower bounds.
result Provides tighter bounds than existing methods, including a novel asymptotic capacity bound for AWGN channel.
Paper establishes lower bounds for Gaussian process bandit optimization under various perturbation models.
problem Lower bounds for Gaussian process bandit optimization in noisy and robust settings.
method Novel proof techniques for standard and robust settings, including deterministic strategies.
result Demonstrates inevitable joint dependence of cumulative regret on corruption level and time horizon in robust settings.
We give the proof of a tight lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable exceeds its expected value. The inequality plays an important role in a variety of contexts, including the analysis of relative deviation bounds in learning theory and generalization bounds for unbounded loss functions.
Study on covering probability of random balls in bounded open sets.
problem Probability of covering a bounded open set E with random balls of radius δ. method Geometric conditions and partition of E; lower bounds using good partitions. result Lower bounds to the probability of covering E with balls tend to 1 as Nexp(−δn). New bounds for LDP with heterogeneous privacy levels guaranteeing high probability of accuracy.
problem Statistical estimation under LDP with users having varying privacy levels.
method Developed finite sample upper bounds in ℓ_2-norm with high probability, complemented by lower bounds.
result Optimal guarantees for heterogeneous LDP in terms of probability and constants.
The study tightens bounds on binomial probabilities and minimums using KL-divergence.
problem Tightening bounds on binomial probabilities and minimums of i.i.d. Binomials.
method Applied Sanov's theorem to derive upper and lower bounds on binomial tail probabilities and minimums, expressed in terms of KL-divergence.
result High probability upper and lower bounds on the minimum of i.i.d. Binomial random variables, finite sample, asymptotically tight.
The estimate of a Multiperiod probability of default applied to residential mortgages can be obtained using the mean of the observed default, so called the Mean of ratios estimator, or aggregating the default and the issued mortgages and computing the ratio of their sum, that is the Ratio of means. This work studies th…
A novel post-hoc calibration method reduces neural network calibration errors.
problem Neural networks produce poorly calibrated probabilities, leading to underconfidence and overconfidence.
method Probability bounding (PB) via box-constrained softmax (BCSoftmax) function.
result Consistently reduces calibration errors on four real-world datasets.
New method proves absolute continuity of Wasserstein barycenters on manifolds with lower Ricci curvature bound.
problem Proving absolute continuity of Wasserstein barycenters on manifolds with lower Ricci curvature bound.
method Introducing new displacement functionals exploiting Hessian equality and revisiting Souslin space theory, Dunford-Pettis theorem, and de la Vallée Poussin criterion for uniform integrability.
result Absolute continuity of Wasserstein barycenters is established for a general class of manifolds with lower Ricci curvature bound.
Probabilistic bounds on neuron death in deep networks, showing depth can be increased indefinitely.
problem Understanding neuron death in deep rectifier networks and its impact on model trainability.
method Deriving upper and lower bounds on neuron death probability as a function of model hyperparameters.
result The probability of neuron death decreases as network depth increases, provided width increases proportionally.
The Wasserstein metric is an important measure of distance between probability distributions, with applications in machine learning, statistics, probability theory, and data analysis. This paper provides upper and lower bounds on statistical minimax rates for the problem of estimating a probability distribution under W…
Paper develops proper, lower-bounded losses for weakly supervised classification.
problem Weakly supervised classification with corrupted labels.
method Representation theorem for proper losses, derived condition for lower-boundedness, generalized logit squeezing.
result Proper and lower-bounded losses for weak-label learning.
Develops high-probability minimax quantile bounds for statistical problems.
problem Statistical procedures often lose information about tail behavior when reduced to expectations.
method Introduces minimax quantiles, develops high-probability variants of minimax methods, and converts risk lower bounds to quantile lower bounds.
result Obtains high-probability minimax quantile lower bounds for various statistical problems.
Study minimax regret in sequential probability assignment with and without side information.
problem Minimax regret analysis in sequential probability assignment.
method Upper and lower bounds on minimax regret using square-root entropy.
result Lower bound matches upper bound for Donsker classes, up to log factors.
The paper optimizes distribution estimation with high probability in Kullback-Leibler divergence.
problem Estimating discrete distributions with high probability in Kullback-Leibler divergence.
method Uses online learning techniques for novel estimator construction via online-to-batch conversion.
result Optimal rate of estimation is pinned down up to a doubly logarithmic factor of K.
Optimal strategy found for identifying best arm in bandits with small gap.
problem Best arm identification in two-armed bandits with a fixed budget and small gap.
method Neyman allocation rule augmented with inverse probability weighting.
result Proposed strategy is asymptotically optimal when gap is small.
We consider a problem of stochastic online learning with general probabilistic graph feedback, where each directed edge in the feedback graph has probability pij. Two cases are covered. (a) The one-step case, where after playing arm i the learner observes a sample reward feedback of arm j with independent prob…
Smart grid is an emerging and promising technology. It uses the power of information technologies to deliver intelligently the electrical power to customers, and it allows the integration of the green technology to meet the environmental requirements. Unfortunately, information technologies have its inherent vulnerabil…
Paper finds how many neurons are needed to approximate histogram distributions.
problem How many neurons are needed to approximate a target probability distribution?
method Examined for uniform input distribution and histogram target distributions, using efficient neural net construction.
result Obtained a new upper bound on the number of required neurons, strictly better than previous bounds.
We study a robust Dynkin game over a set of mutually singular probabilities. We first prove that for the conservative player of the game, her lower and upper value processes coincide (i.e. She has a value process V in the game). Such a result helps people connect the robust Dynkin game with second-order doubly refle…
New policy minimizes error in finding best arm with privacy constraints.
problem Best arm identification with differential privacy constraints.
method Maximum absolute determinants principle for ε-DP policy. result Error probability decays exponentially in T with matching exponents. New strategy optimally identifies best arm in unknown variance Gaussian bandits.
problem Identifying the best arm in two-armed Gaussian bandits with unknown variances.
method Proposes a Neyman Allocation (NA)-Augmented Inverse Probability weighting (AIPW) strategy to estimate variances and draw arms adaptively.
result Demonstrates asymptotic optimality of the proposed strategy in the small-gap regime.
Obtaining accurate and well calibrated probability estimates from classifiers is useful in many applications, for example, when minimising the expected cost of classifications. Existing methods of calibrating probability estimates are applied globally, ignoring the potential for improvements by applying a more fine-gra…
New algorithm identifies best arm in non-stationary linear bandits with improved complexity.
problem Best arm identification in non-stationary linear bandits with adversarial parameters.
method Proposed Adjacent-optimal design and extsfAdjacent−BAI algorithm. result Error probability matches arm-set-dependent lower bound up to constants.
We give an overview of two approaches to probability theory where lower and upper probabilities, rather than probabilities, are used: Walley's behavioural theory of imprecise probabilities, and Shafer and Vovk's game-theoretic account of probability. We show that the two theories are more closely related than would be …
Paper tackles identifying an odd arm in a multi-armed bandit with restless Markov processes and trembling hand.
problem Identifying an odd arm in a multi-armed bandit with restless Markov processes and trembling hand.
method Derive asymptotic lower bound on expected time to identify the odd arm, stitch together parameterised solutions to MDPs.
result First known asymptotic lower bound on expected time to identify the odd arm, with vanishing error probability.
We analyze the problem of sequential probability assignment for binary outcomes with side information and logarithmic loss, where regret---or, redundancy---is measured with respect to a (possibly infinite) class of experts. We provide upper and lower bounds for minimax regret in terms of sequential complexities of the …
Building on the success of deep learning, two modern approaches to learn a probability model from the data are Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Variational AutoEncoders (VAEs). VAEs consider an explicit probability model for the data and compute a generative distribution by maximizing a variational lower-boun…
The paper develops a theory for identifying the best arm in non-parametric multi-armed bandits with a fixed budget.
problem Identifying the best arm in non-parametric multi-armed bandits with a limited number of trials.
method The paper proposes upper and lower bounds on the average log-probability of misidentification using information-theoretic quantities and a refined analysis of the successive-rejects strategy.
result The paper provides new upper and lower bounds on the average log-probability of misidentification, which generalize existing bounds.
General lower bounds on neural network approximation in L^p norm.
problem Fundamental limits of neural network expressivity.
method General lower bound proof on approximation in L^p norm, applied to feed-forward neural networks.
result Neural networks can't approximate certain functions as well as previously thought.
We consider the problem of \textit{best arm identification} with a \textit{fixed budget T}, in the K-armed stochastic bandit setting, with arms distribution defined on [0,1]. We prove that any bandit strategy, for at least one bandit problem characterized by a complexity H, will misidentify the best arm with pr…
We propose a novel algebraic framework for treating probability distributions represented by their cumulants such as the mean and covariance matrix. As an example, we consider the unsupervised learning problem of finding the subspace on which several probability distributions agree. Instead of minimizing an objective f…
Paper proves a new lower bound on calibration error for binary prediction.
problem Proving a strong lower bound on calibration error for binary prediction.
method Developed two new techniques: early stopping and sidestepping.
result Proves an Ω(T0.528) lower bound on calibration error. The resilience of low-degree Rademacher chaos is studied, providing probabilistic lower bounds.
problem Understanding how much a Rademacher chaos can withstand adversarial sign-flips without significant probability changes.
method Probabilistic lower-bound guarantees for the resilience of Rademacher chaos of arbitrary degree.
result Probabilistic lower-bound guarantees for the resilience of Rademacher chaos of arbitrary degree, especially meaningful for constant degree.
This paper makes a small step towards a non-stochastic version of superhedging duality relations in the case of one traded security with a continuous price path. Namely, we prove the coincidence of game-theoretic and measure-theoretic expectation for lower semicontinuous positive functionals. We consider a new broad de…
We consider the problem of low canonical polyadic (CP) rank tensor completion. A completion is a tensor whose entries agree with the observed entries and its rank matches the given CP rank. We analyze the manifold structure corresponding to the tensors with the given rank and define a set of polynomials based on the sa…
Study best arm identification with limited precision sampling in bandits.
problem Limited precision sampling in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Proposed a modified tracking-based algorithm to handle non-unique optimal allocations and presented non-asymptotic bounds.
result Asymptotically optimal tracking-based algorithm for best arm identification.
New formula classifies product reviews into higher and lower ratings based on sentiment analysis.
problem Lack of research on using sentiment analysis for classifying text into ratings.
method Redefined sentiment proportions as a triangle structure to derive variables for classifying text into higher and lower ratings.
result Proved a dependence exists between sentiments and ratings.
New discrepancy function compares discrete probability measures considering space geometry.
problem Comparing discrete probability measures in a geometrically meaningful way.
method Proposes the Fourier Discrepancy Function, proving convexity, differentiability, and providing gradient formula.
result Proves the Fourier Discrepancy is convex, twice differentiable, and provides an explicit gradient formula.
The small-ball method was introduced as a way of obtaining a high probability, isomorphic lower bound on the quadratic empirical process, under weak assumptions on the indexing class. The key assumption was that class members satisfy a uniform small-ball estimate: that Pr(∣f∣≥κ∥f∥L2)≥δ for given const…
Study best arm identification with contextual info, achieving optimal misidentification probability.
problem Identify the best treatment arm with minimal misidentification probability in a small gap scenario.
method Developed RS-AIPW strategy that matches lower bound of misidentification probability in the small-gap regime.
result RS-AIPW strategy is asymptotically optimal for best arm identification.
Sharp bounds for high-probability estimation of discrete distributions.
problem Estimating discrete distributions with high probability under χ2-divergence. method Sharp upper and lower bounds for the classical Laplace estimator, and characterization of minimax high-probability risk for any estimator.
result Sharp bounds for high-probability estimation of discrete distributions can be achieved through a simple smoothing strategy.
The softmax representation of probabilities for categorical variables plays a prominent role in modern machine learning with numerous applications in areas such as large scale classification, neural language modeling and recommendation systems. However, softmax estimation is very expensive for large scale inference bec…
Paper tackles anomaly detection in restless Markov arms with unknown TPMs.
problem Detecting an anomalous arm in a multi-armed bandit with unknown transition probability matrices.
method Developed a policy based on the principle of certainty equivalence, achieving the lower bound arbitrarily closely under specific assumptions.
result Achieved the lower bound on expected time required to find the odd arm index, demonstrating the policy's effectiveness.
We study two-layer belief networks of binary random variables in which the conditional probabilities Pr[childlparents] depend monotonically on weighted sums of the parents. In large networks where exact probabilistic inference is intractable, we show how to compute upper and lower bounds on many probabilities of intere…
The Barankin bound is generalized to the vector case in the mean square error sense. Necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained to achieve the lower bound. To obtain the result, a simple finite dimensional real vector valued generalization of the Riesz representation theorem for Hilbert spaces is given. The bound…