Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk measures. We characterize loss-based risk measures by a representation theorem and give examples of su…
New risk statistics for loss-based regulation.
problem Regulatory focus on losses over gains.
method Developed new risk statistics using scenario analysis.
result New risk statistics extend existing measures.
RNN-HAR model improves VaR forecasting with long-memory and non-linear dynamics.
problem Efficiently forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) with long-memory and non-linear realized volatility.
method Loss-based generalized Bayesian inference with Sequential Monte Carlo for model estimation and prediction.
result RNN-HAR model consistently outperforms other VaR forecasting models.
Two-stage TMLE reduces bias and improves efficiency in CRTs.
problem Differential outcome measurement and imbalance in baseline predictors in CRTs.
method Two-stage targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) to adjust for baseline covariates.
result Our approach nearly eliminates bias due to differential outcome measurement.
Proposes Deep LTMLE for estimating dynamic treatment effects in longitudinal studies.
problem Estimating counterfactual mean outcomes under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal settings.
method Uses a transformer architecture with temporal-difference learning for initial estimation, followed by TMLE correction and statistical inference.
result Demonstrates superior performance in complex, long-term scenarios compared to existing methods.
In extreme classification problems, learning algorithms are required to map instances to labels from an extremely large label set. We build on a recent extreme classification framework with logarithmic time and space, and on a general approach for error correcting output coding (ECOC) with loss-based decoding, and intr…
In this paper we present a loss-based approach to change point analysis. In particular, we look at the problem from two perspectives. The first focuses on the definition of a prior when the number of change points is known a priori. The second contribution aims to estimate the number of change points by using a loss-ba…
We propose a stepsize adaptation scheme for stochastic gradient descent. It operates directly with the loss function and rescales the gradient in order to make fixed predicted progress on the loss. We demonstrate its capabilities by conclusively improving the performance of Adam and Momentum optimizers. The enhanced op…
New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.
problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.
Bayesian model selection of vine copulas: a loss-based perspective
problem Efficient model selection and estimation in Bayesian vine methodology
method Combines loss-based model priors with shotgun stochastic search strategy
result Promotes sparsity and enables fast and effective structure selection
Unified framework for risk evaluation under uncertainty.
problem Risk assessment under multiple economic scenarios.
method Axiomatic framework for generalized risk measures.
result Characterization of worst-case, coherent, and robust risk measures.
The theory of acceptance sets and their associated risk measures plays a key role in the design of capital adequacy tests. The objective of this paper is to investigate, in the context of bounded financial positions, the class of surplus-invariant acceptance sets. These are characterized by the fact that acceptability …
We introduce a statistical model for operational losses based on heavy-tailed distributions and bipartite graphs, which captures the event type and business line structure of operational risk data. The model explicitly takes into account the Pareto tails of losses and the heterogeneous dependence structures between the…
Paper tackles noisy labels for non-decomposable performance measures.
problem Learning from noisy labels for non-decomposable performance measures.
method Designs algorithms for multiclass non-decomposable performance measures using Frank-Wolfe and Bisection methods, corrected for class-conditional noise.
result Noise-corrected algorithms are Bayes consistent, converging to optimal performance.
S2M optimizes mining for diverse data subpopulations.
problem Scalability and uniformity in training sets with many labels and diverse data.
method Doubly-stochastic mining (S2M) computes per-example and minibatch losses on hardest labels/examples.
result S2M ensures good performance across all data subpopulations.
Proposes variational Gaussian approximations for solving the Kushner equation.
problem Solving the Kushner equation for state estimation with observations.
method Tractable variational Gaussian approximations of proximal losses based on Wasserstein and Fisher metrics.
result The proposed method leads to a Gaussian flow consistent with Kalman-Bucy and Riccati flows.
The study examines the generalization of Macro-AUC in multi-label learning, identifying label imbalance as a critical factor.
problem Theoretical understanding of Macro-AUC in multi-label learning is lacking.
method Characterization of generalization properties of learning algorithms based on surrogate losses w.r.t. Macro-AUC, identification of label imbalance as a critical factor.
result The widely-used univariate loss-based algorithm is more sensitive to label imbalance than pairwise and reweighted loss-based ones, implying worse performance.
Paper extends quantile factor analysis with probabilistic methods for better economic policy and financial condition prediction.
problem Improving accuracy in economic and financial condition prediction.
method Probabilistic quantile factor analysis with regularization and variational approximations.
result The probabilistic estimator outperforms a recent loss-based estimator in many cases.
Bayesian framework for policy learning in decision problems.
problem Maximizing expected welfare in decision-making problems.
method Loss-based Bayesian updating and squared-loss surrogate for welfare maximization.
result General Bayes posterior over decision rules with Gaussian pseudo-likelihood interpretation.
Proposes a fair classification model using Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
problem Ensuring fairness in classification models.
method Distributionally robust optimization with Wasserstein ambiguity sets and equal opportunity fairness constraint.
result Improves fairness without significant loss in predictive accuracy.
A new framework for clustering with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in clustering methods.
method Generalized Bayes framework using Gibbs posteriors and loss functions.
result Efficient algorithms for clustering and uncertainty quantification.
A machine learning method optimizes portfolio and hedging under uncertain market parameters.
problem Optimizing portfolios and hedging under drift and volatility uncertainty.
method Machine learning approach solving adaptive robust control problems.
result Demonstrates financial advantages of adaptive robust framework.
Efficient PAC learning for contrastive linear representations is achieved.
problem Efficient PAC learning for contrastive linear representations.
method Relaxing the problem to a semi-definite program and using Rademacher complexity.
result First efficient PAC learning algorithm for contrastive learning.
The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a widely used performance measure in machine learning. Increasingly, however, in several applications, ranging from ranking to biometric screening to medicine, performance is measured not in terms of the full area under the ROC curve, but in terms of the \emph{partial} area under t…
Research characterizes learnability of multilabel ranking problems.
problem Learnability of multilabel ranking problems with relevance-score feedback.
method Characterizes learnability in batch and online settings for a large family of ranking losses.
result Characterizes two equivalence classes of ranking losses based on learnability.
This paper studies confidence regions for robust estimators using Wasserstein distance.
problem Developing robust estimators against model misspecification.
method Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization.
result Asymptotic normality and optimal confidence regions for distributionally robust estimators.
The paper studies consistency of surrogate loss procedures under constrained classifiers.
problem Consistency of surrogate loss approaches under constrained classifiers without correct specification.
method The paper develops theoretical results and hinge loss based procedures for a constrained classification problem.
result Hinge losses are the only surrogate losses that preserve consistency in second-best scenarios.
This paper addresses the problem of online learning in a dynamic setting. We consider a social network in which each individual observes a private signal about the underlying state of the world and communicates with her neighbors at each time period. Unlike many existing approaches, the underlying state is dynamic, and…
ABM automates feature engineering and variable selection for loss-based models.
problem Improving model performance through better feature engineering and variable selection.
method ABM uses group and fused lasso regularization to automatically select cutting points and variables.
result ABM integrates feature engineering, variable selection, and model training.
ResNet with Focal Loss improves speech emotion recognition.
problem Speech emotion recognition using plain text features is insufficient.
method Residual Convolutional Neural Network (ResNet) trained with Focal Loss.
result Focal Loss enhances model's focus on hard examples.
Two-stage framework detects multi-modal outliers.
problem Detecting outliers in multi-modal data structures.
method Combines global kernel PCA and local clustering stages.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods on challenging datasets.
This paper improves multi-label ranking by reweighting univariate losses, enhancing consistency and performance.
problem Improving multi-label ranking performance while maintaining consistency.
method Systematic study of consistency and generalization error bounds for learning algorithms, proposing a reweighted univariate loss.
result Inconsistent pairwise losses can lead to better performance than consistent univariate losses in practice.
Galerkin method outperforms graph-based methods in spectral decompositions.
problem Improving spectral decomposition methods in machine learning.
method Restricting study to a small set of test functions using the Galerkin method.
result Statistical and computational superiority of Galerkin method over graph-based approaches.
Paper tackles robust imitation learning from noisy demonstrations.
problem Learning from noisy demonstrations is challenging.
method Optimizes a classification risk with a symmetric loss, combining pseudo-labeling and co-training.
result Our method is more robust than state-of-the-art methods.
Speaker embedding models that utilize neural networks to map utterances to a space where distances reflect similarity between speakers have driven recent progress in the speaker recognition task. However, there is still a significant performance gap between recognizing speakers in the training set and unseen speakers. …
Study binary choice with asymmetric loss, offering simple solutions.
problem Binary choice with asymmetric loss in data-rich environments.
method Loss-based reweighting of logistic regression or machine learning techniques.
result Valid decisions on binary outcomes with general loss functions.
Paper introduces a new topological loss for better convergence.
problem Optimizing topological losses for model's desired topological behavior.
method Introduces a new regularized topology-aware loss function.
result Guarantees efficient optimization of the new loss function.
This work shows synthetic gradients can outperform backpropagation in sample efficiency.
problem The efficiency of backpropagation in training neural networks.
method Unified vectorized feedback framework for loss-based and reward-based learning, introducing synthetic gradients.
result Synthetic gradients can achieve lower gradient-estimation mean squared error than backpropagation under certain conditions.
After the release of the final accounting standards for impairment in July 2014 by the IASB, banks will face the next significant methodological challenge after Basel 2. In this paper, first methodological thoughts are presented, and ways how to approach underlying questions are proposed. It starts with a detailed disc…
In automatic speech processing systems, speaker diarization is a crucial front-end component to separate segments from different speakers. Inspired by the recent success of deep neural networks (DNNs) in semantic inferencing, triplet loss-based architectures have been successfully used for this problem. However, existi…
Area under ROC (AUC) is an important metric for binary classification and bipartite ranking problems. However, it is difficult to directly optimizing AUC as a learning objective, so most existing algorithms are based on optimizing a surrogate loss to AUC. One significant drawback of these surrogate losses is that they …
Dualities in physics help in machine learning tasks.
problem Applying dualities to improve machine learning performance.
method Enforcing dual representations in neural networks and using additional loss terms.
result Computers can find dualities, linking physics and machine learning.
Study of estimation errors in surrogate loss minimizers, providing stronger guarantees than existing methods.
problem Estimation errors in surrogate loss minimizers for various hypothesis sets.
method Detailed study of H-consistency estimation error bounds, proving general theorems for distribution-dependent and independent settings. result Explicit bounds for zero-one and adversarial losses, showing enhancements under distributional assumptions.
Introduces bi-temperature logistic loss for more robust training.
problem Training neural nets with noise robustness.
method Introduces two temperatures into logistic loss and Bregman divergences.
result Training becomes more robust to noise with bi-temperature loss.
Paper proposes AXE loss for non-autoregressive machine translation, improving performance.
problem Challenges in training non-autoregressive models due to lack of autoregressive factors and cross entropy loss penalties.
method Proposes aligned cross entropy (AXE) loss function using a differentiable dynamic program for better word order alignment.
result AXE-based training improves performance on major WMT benchmarks and sets a new state of the art for non-autoregressive models.
New method learns shape correspondences robustly from raw geometry.
problem Inaccurate and poor generalization of shape correspondences.
method Learning-based approach with feature-extraction network and functional map representation.
result Robust and accurate shape correspondence learning with less training data.
A gradient-based method learns the structure of TAN for Bayesian network classifiers.
problem Learning the structure of Bayesian networks is difficult.
method A distribution over graph structures learned via gradient-based optimization.
result Consistently outperforms random and Chow-Liu TAN structures.
We optimize rank-based metrics using blackbox differentiation.
problem Challenges in directly optimizing rank-based metrics due to their non-differentiable and non-decomposable nature.
method Efficient, theoretically sound, and general method for differentiating rank-based metrics with mini-batch gradient descent.
result Competitive performance on standard image retrieval datasets and improved performance on object detectors.