Interactive book integrates probability models with big data analytics.
problem Lack of integration between classical loss data models and modern analytic tools.
method Combines classical loss data models with modern analytic tools and big data.
result Promotes deeper learning through interactive elements and multiple language support.
Paper improves MMD estimation for analytical mean embeddings.
problem Improving MMD estimation for distributions with analytical mean embeddings.
method Proposes a tighter concentration result for MMD estimation under semi-explicit settings and extends to unbounded kernels.
result Demonstrates efficiency in real-world applications like index replication and calibration.
Due to the success of deep learning to solving a variety of challenging machine learning tasks, there is a rising interest in understanding loss functions for training neural networks from a theoretical aspect. Particularly, the properties of critical points and the landscape around them are of importance to determine …
Analytical method finds deeper optima in two-layer ReLU networks.
problem Training two-layer ReLU networks with analytical methods.
method Analytically finding critical points of the loss function for one layer while keeping the other fixed.
result Significantly smaller training loss values on real datasets compared to gradient descent methods.
In this paper we model the loss function of high-dimensional optimization problems by a Gaussian random field, or equivalently a Gaussian process. Our aim is to study gradient descent in such loss functions or energy landscapes and compare it to results obtained from real high-dimensional optimization problems such as …
Paper establishes a formula linking model performance to insurance loss ratio.
problem Improving model performance does not always lead to proportional improvements in loss ratio.
method Derives a closed-form formula connecting Pearson correlation to expected loss ratio.
result Model improvements have diminishing marginal returns in reducing loss ratio.
The stability of the financial system is associated with systemic risk factors such as the concurrent default of numerous small obligors. Hence it is of utmost importance to study the mutual dependence of losses for different creditors in the case of large, overlapping credit portfolios. We analytically calculate the m…
Edgeworth Accountant calculates privacy loss under differential privacy compositions efficiently.
problem Efficiently computing overall privacy loss under composition of private algorithms.
method Analytical approach using f-differential privacy framework and Edgeworth expansion. result Non-asymptotic (ε,δ)-differential privacy bounds with reduced computational cost. Analyzes double descent in binary classification models with different losses.
problem Understanding the double descent phenomenon in binary classification models.
method Analytic study of gradient descent with logistic and square losses on binary linear classification models.
result The double descent phenomenon persists but with differences compared to logistic loss.
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss…
This work analyzes impermanent loss in decentralized markets and provides a hedging strategy.
problem Impermanent loss in automated market makers (AMMs).
method Analytical derivation of a static replication formula using European options, and numerical example with real data.
result Guaranteed hedging coverage for all final prices within a predefined interval.
The impact of a stress scenario of default events on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio can be assessed by determining the loss distribution conditional on these events. While it is conceptually easy to estimate loss distributions conditional on default events by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it becomes imp…
Study evaluates interpretability of time series foundation models' latent spaces.
problem Improving interpretability of latent spaces in time series models for visual analytics.
method Evaluated MOMENT family of transformer-based models on five datasets, fine-tuning for performance.
result Fine-tuning improved latent space clarity but limited interpretability remained.
Most of the banks' operational risk internal models are based on loss pooling in risk and business line categories. The parameters and outputs of operational risk models are sensitive to the pooling of the data and the choice of the risk classification. In a simple model, we establish the link between the number of ris…
New method recovers signals from saturated data using linear loss and nonconvex penalties.
problem Signal recovery from saturated measurements with sign information loss.
method Linear loss and nonconvex penalties (e.g., minimax concave penalty, sorted ℓ1 norm).
result Estimation error is bounded and recovery performance improved.
Study how data structure impacts classification performance in overparametrized models.
problem Understanding the role of data structure in overparametrized models.
method Analytical and statistical physics methods applied to structured data.
result Data structure significantly affects the performance of overparametrized models, particularly for logistic loss.
Proposes a model to update industrial data predictions based on temporal changes.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in industrial data analytics by addressing changing conditions over time.
method Integrates similarity and loss functions to estimate and update prediction models adaptively.
result The data renewal model enhances prediction accuracy by identifying and updating model changes.
New loss functions reveal layer roles in deep neural networks.
problem Understanding the role of individual layers in deep neural networks.
method Derived Deep Gaussian Layer-wise loss functions (DGLs) using Gaussian Processes and SGD.
result First explicit and competitive layer-wise loss functions for deep neural networks.
Max-margin learning is a powerful approach to building classifiers and structured output predictors. Recent work on max-margin supervised topic models has successfully integrated it with Bayesian topic models to discover discriminative latent semantic structures and make accurate predictions for unseen testing data. Ho…
The Soft Nearest Neighbor Loss improves representation quality and generalization.
problem Improving the quality of representations in machine learning models.
method Explored and expanded the Soft Nearest Neighbor Loss to measure class entanglement.
result Maximizing the entanglement of different class representations leads to better generalization and uncertainty estimation.
Proposes efficient Bayesian logistic regression for large sparse datasets.
problem Infeasibility of theoretical Bayesian methods for large sparse feature sets.
method Low complexity analytical approximations for sparse online logistic and probit regressions.
result Empirical results show superior performance compared to more complex methods.
Data symmetries in neural networks can generate conserved quantities.
problem Conservation laws in neural networks
method Using tensorizable networks
result Data augmentation can induce conserved quantities
In this paper, we address the aggregation of dependent stop loss reinsurance risks where the dependence among the ceding insurer(s) risks is governed by the Sarmanov distribution and each individual risk belongs to the class of Erlang mixtures. We investigate the effects of the ceding insurer(s) risk dependencies on th…
Supervised learning is an active research area, with numerous applications in diverse fields such as data analytics, computer vision, speech and audio processing, and image understanding. In most cases, the loss functions used in machine learning assume symmetric noise models, and seek to estimate the unknown function …
This work considers the problem of binary classification: given training data x1,…,xn from a certain population, together with associated labels y1,…,yn∈{0,1}, determine the best label for an element x not among the training data. More specifically, this work considers a variant o…
The article provides formulas to hedge impermanent loss in decentralized markets.
problem Impermanent loss in concentrated liquidity provision in decentralized markets.
method Analytical characterizations and static replication formulas using European calls or puts.
result Static replication formulas accurately hedge impermanent loss.
OccamNet finds interpretable symbolic fits to data efficiently.
problem Complex neural models extrapolate poorly and are hard to interpret.
method Samples functions, biases towards better fits, and uses cross-entropy matching.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art symbolic regression methods on real-world datasets.
In structural credit risk models, default events and the ensuing losses are both derived from the asset values at maturity. Hence it is of utmost importance to choose a distribution for these asset values which is in accordance with empirical data. At the same time, it is desirable to still preserve some analytical tra…
Unified framework for binary responses using AUC loss and low-rank constraint.
problem Statistical inefficiency and shared structure in fitting multiple binary responses.
method Pairwise AUC loss aggregation with low-rank constraint, scalable projected gradient descent.
result Unified framework outperforms likelihood-based approaches in challenging settings.
In this paper we prove local analytic hypoellipticity for a degenerate sum of squares of complex vector fields generalizing those of Kohn in "Hypoellipticity and Loss of Derivatives". Kohn's article is to appear in the Annals of Mathematics with an appendix by Derridj and Tartakoff proving local analyticity in that cas…
Analyzes impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges and provides a replication formula.
problem Impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges like Uniswap and Balancer.
method Analytical static replication formula using European calls and puts.
result Guaranteed coverage for pool value within a predefined range.
In this paper we develop a statistical arbitrage trading strategy with two key elements in hi-frequency trading: stop-loss and leverage. We consider, as in Bertram (2009), a mean-reverting process for the security price with proportional transaction costs; we show how to introduce stop-loss and leverage in an optimal t…
This paper analyzes the landscape of supervised contrastive loss in over-parameterized networks.
problem Understanding the structure of solutions in over-parameterized networks under supervised contrastive loss.
method Analytical approach using unconstrained features model (UFM) to study the solutions of SC loss minimization.
result All local minima of SC loss are global minima in over-parameterized networks, and the minimizer is unique (up to rotation).
Enhances deep learning robustness to noise without sacrificing clean data accuracy.
problem Robustness of deep neural networks to input noise.
method Discriminative loss at penultimate layer and class-wise feature alignment with Gaussian noise.
result Improves robustness to various perturbations without degrading clean data accuracy.
Bayesian PINNs optimize loss weights for PDEs and data.
problem Optimizing loss weights in physics-informed neural networks.
method Laplace approximation for efficient model evidence computation.
result Unified Bayesian setting for PDEs and noisy measurements.
Domain adaptation is the supervised learning setting in which the training and test data are sampled from different distributions: training data is sampled from a source domain, whilst test data is sampled from a target domain. This paper proposes and studies an approach, called feature-level domain adaptation (FLDA), …
We address the problem of detecting changes in multivariate datastreams, and we investigate the intrinsic difficulty that change-detection methods have to face when the data dimension scales. In particular, we consider a general approach where changes are detected by comparing the distribution of the log-likelihood of …
New loss function helps models avoid noisy labels, improving robustness.
problem Designing robust models for datasets with noisy labels.
method Introduced a gambler's loss function that encourages models to abstain from learning noisy data points.
result Training with gambler's loss leads to improved robustness and generalization across various tasks.
The paper examines how loss aversion impacts multi-armed bandit decisions over long periods.
problem The impact of loss aversion on multi-armed bandit decisions over long periods.
method A new central limit theorem for measures with history-dependent variances, derived under risk aversion in gains and risk loving in losses.
result Consequences of loss aversion for asymptotic properties are derived in analytical results.
Improved neural network predicts spectral functions more accurately than traditional methods.
problem Reconstructing real-time spectral functions from imaginary-time Green's functions is ill-posed and challenging.
method Feature Learning Network (FL-net) for enhanced prediction accuracy.
result FL-net achieves at least 20% improvement over traditional methods like MEM.
DiMS sampler explores neural network loss minima via dissipative dynamics.
problem Sampling reparameterization invariant solutions in neural networks.
method Dynamical system based on kinetic energy with dissipative friction.
result DiMS sampler samples exactly from minimum level sets.
This paper finds ReLU restores symmetry in SCL under class imbalances.
problem Symmetry break in SCL under class imbalances.
method Analytical proof and experiments with ReLU activation and batch selection.
result ReLU restores symmetry in SCL-learned representations without loss in test accuracy.
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of possible extreme los…
New mechanisms improve differential privacy for scalar queries.
problem Improving differential privacy for scalar, real-valued query functions.
method Mixing multiple Gaussian distributions to satisfy differential privacy.
result Mechanisms yield lower noise amplitudes and variances compared to the analytic Gaussian mechanism.
A new method for efficient label retrieval in large output spaces.
problem Efficiently retrieving relevant labels for inputs with large output spaces.
method Developed a technique called Stochastic Negative Mining to address the problem of set-valued classifiers in large output spaces.
result Stochastic Negative Mining outperforms existing negative sampling approaches in experiments.
A framework connects VAEs to GLMs for better model initialization and performance.
problem Understanding and optimizing loss function critical points in VAEs.
method Introducing a theoretical framework based on GLM and EDFs.
result Maximum likelihood initialization improves VAE performance.
The paper examines statistical properties of IL and LVR in automated market makers.
problem Assessing the performance of automated market makers and their profitability.
method Analysis of random walk properties and statistical integral combined with CFMM mechanics.
result IL and LVR have identical expectation values but different distribution functions for Brownian motion.
Motivated by the industry practice of pairs trading, we study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price spread. An optimal double stopping problem is formulated to analyze the timing to start and subsequently liquidate the position subject to transaction costs. Modeling the price spread by an Orn…