A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The study improves Monte Carlo simulations for long-term investments using advanced financial models.
We consider a Bayesian financial market with one bond and one stock where the aim is to maximize the expected power utility from terminal wealth. The solution of this problem is known, however there are some conjectures in the literature about the long-term behavior of the optimal strategy. In this paper we prove now t…
Improved financial market calibration reveals large excess volatility.
The behavior of stock market returns over a period of 1-60 days has been investigated for S&P 500 and Nasdaq within the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics. Even for such long terms, the distributions of the returns are non-Gaussian. They have fat tails indicating that the stock returns do not follow a random …
In this paper, we investigate trading strategies based on exponential moving averages (ExpMAs) of an underlying risky asset. We study both logarithmic utility maximization and long-term growth rate maximization problems and find closed-form solutions when the drift of the underlying is modeled by either an Ornstein-Uhl…
New method detects concept drift in data streams with missing values.
A long user history inevitably reflects the transitions of personal interests over time. The analyses on the user history require the robust sequential model to anticipate the transitions and the decays of user interests. The user history is often modeled by various RNN structures, but the RNN structures in the recomme…
Building accurate language models that capture meaningful long-term dependencies is a core challenge in natural language processing. Towards this end, we present a calibration-based approach to measure long-term discrepancies between a generative sequence model and the true distribution, and use these discrepancies to …
We present a detailed study of the performance of a trading rule that uses moving average of past returns to predict future returns on stock indexes. Our main goal is to link performance and the stochastic process of the traded asset. Our study reports short, medium and long term effects by looking at the Sharpe ratio …
Model combines long-term and short-term memory using conceptors.
Paper uses sparse learning to estimate quasi-potential and drift components in stochastic systems.
Study optimal trading strategies with expert signals in a hidden Gaussian drift market.
Session-based Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are gaining increasing popularity for recommendation task, due to the high autocorrelation of user's behavior on the latest session and the effectiveness of RNN to capture the sequence order information. However, most existing session-based RNN recommender systems still so…
BCPO optimizes offline RL policies by converting uncertainty into conservative bounds.
A new drift detection method based on autoregressive models.
This study presents a long-term alternative formula for stock price variation described by a geometric Brownian motion on the basis of median instead of mean or expected values. The proposed method is motivated by the observation made in remote fields, where optimality of bet-hedging or diversification strategies is ex…
This paper proposes a framework to predict long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in multivariate time series.
Long term investment is one of the major investment strategies. However, calculating intrinsic value of some company and evaluating shares for long term investment is not easy, since analyst have to care about a large number of financial indicators and evaluate them in a right manner. So far, little help in predicting …
Global physical event detection has traditionally relied on dense coverage of physical sensors around the world; while this is an expensive undertaking, there have not been alternatives until recently. The ubiquity of social networks and human sensors in the field provides a tremendous amount of real-time, live data ab…
Study optimizes financial strategies in markets with uncertain drift.
This paper aims to make a new contribution to the study of lifetime ruin problem by considering investment in two hedge funds with high-watermark fees and drift uncertainty. Due to multi-dimensional performance fees that are charged whenever each fund profit exceeds its historical maximum, the value function is expecte…
DRIFT uses RL to automate functional software testing efficiently.
We discuss a simple extension of the Ho and Lee model with generic time-dependent drift in which: 1) we compute bond prices analytically; 2) the yield curve is sensible and the asymptotic yield is positive; and 3) our analytical solution provides a clean and simple way of separating volatility from the drift in the sho…
Long term optimal investment problems are studied in a factor model with matrix valued state variables. Explicit parameter restrictions are obtained under which, for an isoelastic investor, the finite horizon value function and optimal strategy converge to their long-run counterparts as the investment horizon approache…
New approach to portfolio optimization shows entropy regularization is ineffective.
This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide at discrete time points an unbiased est…
Most practical recommender systems focus on estimating immediate user engagement without considering the long-term effects of recommendations on user behavior. Reinforcement learning (RL) methods offer the potential to optimize recommendations for long-term user engagement. However, since users are often presented with…
Detects data drift and outliers affecting ML model performance over time.
We reformulate wealth taxation using Fokker-Planck equations to ensure tax neutrality.
High-performing equity factor with Sharpe ratio above 13 out-of-sample.
Optimizes dividend payouts with fixed costs and regime switching.
A new method estimates SDEs using occupation kernels.
Improved growth strategies by incorporating stochastic factors in asset returns.
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
This paper solves a Bayes sequential impulse control problem for a diffusion, whose drift has an unobservable parameter with a change point. The partially-observed problem is reformulated into one with full observations, via a change of probability measure which removes the drift. The optimal impulse controls can be ex…
New algorithm optimizes for long-term user satisfaction in delayed reward settings.
Unified approach to trend-following systems, deriving exact relationships and expected returns.
Proceed adapts models proactively against concept drift in online time series forecasting.
This paper proposes a paradigm shift in the valuation of long term annuities, away from classical no-arbitrage valuation towards valuation under the real world probability measure. Furthermore, we apply this valuation method to two examples of annuity products, one having annual payments linked to a mortality index and…
Preformer improves Transformer for long-term time series forecasting.
Study S-shaped utility maximization with VaR constraint and unobservable drift.
New research shows some distributions hard to sample via diffusions.
This paper tackles robust policy learning under concept drifts, improving upon existing methods.
Method learns SDEs from data snapshots.
Paper develops a hybrid DNN approach for RUL prediction with adaptive drift.
MRIF models dynamic user interests at multiple temporal-ranges.
We study long-term growth-optimal strategies on a simple market with linear proportional transaction costs. We show that several problems of this sort can be solved in closed form, and explicit the non-analytic dependance of optimal strategies and expected frictional losses of the friction parameter. We present one der…
We consider the problem of utility maximization for investors with power utility functions. Building on the earlier work Larsen et al. (2016), we prove that the value of the problem is a Frechet-differentiable function of the drift of the price process, provided that this drift lies in a suitable Banach space. We then …