A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper analyzes how sensitive long-term utility of optimal portfolios is to changes in market models.
We consider a Bayesian financial market with one bond and one stock where the aim is to maximize the expected power utility from terminal wealth. The solution of this problem is known, however there are some conjectures in the literature about the long-term behavior of the optimal strategy. In this paper we prove now t…
Study examines how risk tolerance impacts long-term investment returns.
For a stochastic factor model we maximize the long-term growth rate of robust expected power utility with parameter . Using duality methods the problem is reformulated as an infinite time horizon, risk-sensitive control problem. Our results characterize the optimal growth rate, an optimal long-term trading s…
This paper studies the long-term growth rate of expected utility from holding a leveraged exchanged-traded fund (LETF), which is a constant proportion portfolio of the reference asset. Working with the power utility function, we develop an analytical approach that employs martingale extraction and involves finding the …
The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adjusting preferences to new ec…
The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term yield curves modeling. Inspired by the economic litterature, it provides a financial interpretation of the Ramsey rule that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adju…
Designs ranking models to consider long-term consequences, improving online discourse.
FiLM improves deep learning for long-term time series forecasting.
This paper analyzes the robust growth rate of leveraged ETFs under uncertain parameters.
Investigates fund separations and stability for long-term optimal investments.
The optimal strategies for a long-term static investor are studied. Given a portfolio of a stock and a bond, we derive the optimal allocation of the capitols to maximize the expected long-term growth rate of a utility function of the wealth. When the bond has constant interest rate, three models for the underlying stoc…
Optimizes long-term social welfare in recommender systems by matching users to providers.
We utilize long-term memory, fractal dimension and approximate entropy as input variables for the Efficiency Index [Kristoufek & Vosvrda (2013), Physica A 392]. This way, we are able to comment on stock market efficiency after controlling for different types of inefficiencies. Applying the methodology on 38 stock marke…
We study an exploration method for model-free RL that generalizes the counter-based exploration bonus methods and takes into account long term exploratory value of actions rather than a single step look-ahead. We propose a model-free RL method that modifies Delayed Q-learning and utilizes the long-term exploration bonu…
Extended model ensures long-term survival of traders in limited stock market participation.
We employ perturbation analysis technique to study multi-asset portfolio optimisation with transaction cost. We allow for correlations in risky assets and obtain optimal trading methods for general utility functions. Our analytical results are supported by numerical simulations in the context of the Long Term Growth Mo…
Preformer improves Transformer for long-term time series forecasting.
Long term optimal investment problems are studied in a factor model with matrix valued state variables. Explicit parameter restrictions are obtained under which, for an isoelastic investor, the finite horizon value function and optimal strategy converge to their long-run counterparts as the investment horizon approache…
Study shows how national culture influences investors' tendency to hold or sell stocks.
Transformer learns long-term dependencies from real-world data.
TimeMixer predicts global financial asset volatility, excelling in short-term forecasts.
A drawdown constraint forces the current wealth to remain above a given function of its maximum to date. We consider the portfolio optimisation problem of maximising the long-term growth rate of the expected utility of wealth subject to a drawdown constraint, as in the original setup of Grossman and Zhou (1993). We wor…
Paper proposes new strategies for better portfolio estimation in long-term investments with unknown distributions.
Study preferences over uncertain time payments, finds growth-optimality better than expected utility theory.
New PU ratio predicts long-term Bitcoin returns better than other methods.
We introduce a new test for detection of power-law cross-correlations among a pair of time series - the rescaled covariance test. The test is based on a power-law divergence of the covariance of the partial sums of the long-range cross-correlated processes. Utilizing a heteroskedasticity and auto-correlation robust est…
We introduce the logistic model of consumption growth, which captures a negative feedback loop preventing an unlimited growth of consumption due to finite biophysical resources of our planet. This simple dynamic model allows for derivation of the expression describing the declining long-term tail of a social discount c…
The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) has proven to be an effective model for producing semantically meaningful latent representations for natural data. However, it has thus far seen limited application to sequential data, and, as we demonstrate, existing recurrent VAE models have difficulty modeling sequences with long-te…
Improves A/B testing for long-term outcomes in dynamic systems.
Paper tackles online DR-submodular maximization with stochastic constraints.
We propose a comprehensive treatment of the leverage effect, i.e. the relationship between returns and volatility of a specific asset, focusing on energy commodities futures, namely Brent and WTI crude oils, natural gas and heating oil. After estimating the volatility process without assuming any specific form of its b…
A novel approach predicts long-term stock price trends using 2D-convolutional encoders and semantic segmentation.
Bi-LSTM with attention generates jazz music with rich nuances.
We study the portfolio selection problem of a long-run investor who is maximising the asymptotic growth rate of her expected utility. We show that, somewhat surprisingly, it is essentially not affected by introduction of a floor constraint which requires the wealth process to dominate a given benchmark at all times. We…
This paper studies long term investing by an investor that maximizes either expected utility from terminal wealth or from consumption. We introduce the concepts of a generalized stochastic discount factor (SDF) and of the minimum price to attain target payouts. The paper finds that the dynamics of the SDF needs to be c…
We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, see Biagini et al. [2018], Biagini and Härtel [2014], and El Karoui et a…
This article is the term paper of the course Investments. We mainly focus on modeling long-term investment decisions of a typical utility-maximizing individual, with features of Chinese stock market in perspective. We adopt an OR based methodology with market information as input parameters to carry out the solution. T…
Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
In this paper, we investigate trading strategies based on exponential moving averages (ExpMAs) of an underlying risky asset. We study both logarithmic utility maximization and long-term growth rate maximization problems and find closed-form solutions when the drift of the underlying is modeled by either an Ornstein-Uhl…
A long user history inevitably reflects the transitions of personal interests over time. The analyses on the user history require the robust sequential model to anticipate the transitions and the decays of user interests. The user history is often modeled by various RNN structures, but the RNN structures in the recomme…
We introduce and solve a new type of quadratic backward stochastic differential equation systems defined in an infinite time horizon, called \emph{ergodic BSDE systems}. Such systems arise naturally as candidate solutions to characterize forward performance processes and their associated optimal trading strategies in a…
SAMBA predicts stock returns efficiently using Mamba and graph neural networks.
We analyze the market efficiency of 25 commodity futures across various groups -- metals, energies, softs, grains and other agricultural commodities. To do so, we utilize recently proposed Efficiency Index to find that the most efficient of all the analyzed commodities is heating oil, closely followed by WTI crude oil,…
Model combines long-term and short-term memory using conceptors.
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
TimeBridge addresses non-stationarity in long-term time series forecasting.
We consider a financial market model driven by an R^n-valued Gaussian process with stationary increments which is different from Brownian motion. This driving noise process consists of independent components, and each component has memory described by two parameters. For this market model, we explicitly solve optim…