New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term outcomes from short-term data.
method Reward function decomposition-based framework (LOPE).
result LOPE outperforms existing methods, especially when surrogacy is violated.
The paper targets optimal interventions for long-term outcomes using imputed data and policy learning.
problem Maximizing long-term outcomes observed only in the future.
method Imputing missing long-term outcomes and using a doubly-robust approach for policy evaluation and optimization.
result The approach outperforms simple short-term proxies and achieves significant revenue impact over three years.
The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with persistent unmeasured confounders.
method Exploiting the sequential structure of short-term outcomes, the paper develops three novel identification strategies and corresponding estimators.
result The proposed methods outperform existing approaches in handling persistent confounders.
Combining experimental and observational data for long-term causal effects.
problem Estimating causal effects of treatment on long-term outcomes using mixed data types.
method Three approaches for fusing experimental and observational data: equal confounding, shared confounder, and proxy variables.
result Developed estimators for each approach and analyzed their robustness.
This paper balances short-term and long-term rewards in policy learning.
problem Balancing short-term and long-term rewards in policy learning.
method Formalizes a new framework to balance rewards, identifies rewards under mild assumptions, deduces efficiency bounds, and develops a policy learning approach.
result The proposed method improves the estimator of long-term reward and reduces regret.
This study presents a long-term alternative formula for stock price variation described by a geometric Brownian motion on the basis of median instead of mean or expected values. The proposed method is motivated by the observation made in remote fields, where optimality of bet-hedging or diversification strategies is ex…
Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach to overcome this missing data problem is to analyze treatments effects on an int…
Estimates long-term effects from short-term experiments and observational data with unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating long-term causal effects from short-term experiments and long-term observational data with unobserved confounding.
method Combining regression residuals with short-term experimental outcomes to create an instrumental variable for estimating long-term causal effects.
result The estimator is unbiased and its variance is analytically studied.
Improves A/B testing for long-term outcomes in dynamic systems.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term A/B testing data.
method Develops optimal inference techniques and localized information sharing methods.
result New estimator reduces variance linearly with test arms and matches lower bounds.
Bayesian optimization for long-term outcomes using fast and slow experiments.
problem Optimizing long-term system effects with short-term misleading results.
method Combining fast and slow experiments for Bayesian optimization.
result Sequential optimization over large action spaces in a short time.
New algorithm optimizes long-term user satisfaction in recommendation systems.
problem Optimizing long-term user satisfaction in recommendation systems with delayed rewards.
method Developed a predictive model of delayed rewards and a bandit algorithm that balances exploration and exploitation.
result Our approach results in substantially better performance compared to short-term or delayed optimization.
New method robust to random distributional shifts in prediction.
problem Random distributional shifts in real-world settings.
method Hybrid approach combining long-term and proxy outcomes.
result Hybrid approach yields lower mean-squared error than current methods.
Framework for deferring decisions to experts in sequential medical settings.
problem Myopic and non-adaptive decision-making by ML models in sequential medical contexts.
method Sequential Learning-to-Defer (SLTD) framework using model-based reinforcement learning.
result Adaptive deferral policy improves trade-off between long-term outcomes and deferral frequency.
Deep Bayesian models estimate causal effects for dynamic treatment regimes over long follow-up times.
problem Challenges in causal effect estimation for dynamic treatment regimes with long follow-up times.
method Combining outcome regression models with deep Bayesian models for high-dimensional features.
result Stable and accurate dynamic causal effect estimation from observational data, especially with long-term follow-up.
GEAR uses auxiliary data to estimate optimal decisions in studies with limited primary outcomes.
problem Estimating optimal decisions when primary outcomes are not available in experimental samples.
method GEAR uses augmented inverse propensity weighting to estimate optimal decisions based on auxiliary data.
result GEAR estimators and value estimators have established asymptotic properties and are validated in simulations and a real application.
The paper addresses estimating long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with missing data, especially monotone missing.
method The paper introduces the sequential missingness assumption for identification and proposes three novel estimation methods: inverse probability weighting, sequential regression imputation, and SeqMSM. It also introduces a balancing-enhanced approach, BalanceNet, to improve estimation accuracy.
result The proposed methods, including BalanceNet, effectively estimate long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
The study improves Monte Carlo simulations for long-term investments using advanced financial models.
problem Improving the accuracy of long-term investment simulations.
method Developed a multivariate process incorporating recent financial models and probabilistic forecasts.
result Increased accuracy in predicting portfolio values over decades.
Study uses surrogate data to improve treatment effect estimation with scarce outcome data.
problem Limited outcome data hinders estimating treatment effects.
method Uses abundant surrogate data to estimate treatment effects without stringent assumptions.
result Improves precision of treatment effect estimation.
Estimates long-term effects using past experiments as instruments with many weak instruments.
problem Estimating long-term causal effects with limited short-term outcomes and many weak instruments.
method Nonparametric instrumental variable inference with many weak instruments, using past experiments as instruments.
result Automatic debiased machine learning estimators for linear functionals of the structural function and its minimum-norm projection are efficient in the many-weak-instruments regime.
New LT-O-learners improve HLTE estimation with low overlap.
problem Challenges in estimating heterogeneous long-term treatment effects due to limited overlap.
method Introduces LT-O-learners that use custom overlap weights to downweight low-overlap samples.
result LT-O-learners provide robust HLTE estimates with lower variance in low-overlap regimes.
New algorithm optimizes for long-term user satisfaction in delayed reward settings.
problem Optimizing for long-term user satisfaction in delayed reward settings.
method Developed a predictive model of delayed rewards and a bandit algorithm that combines rewards and surrogate outcomes.
result Our algorithm significantly outperforms methods that optimize for short-term proxies or rely solely on delayed rewards.
Study shows how competition affects learning in matching markets, proving it's possible to balance stability, fairness, and regret.
problem How competition affects learning in matching markets and the impossibility of simultaneously guaranteeing stability and low optimal regret.
method Modeling a two-sided matching market with bandit learners and adding components of costs and transfers.
result It is possible to simultaneously guarantee stability, low optimal regret, fairness in the distribution of regret, and high social welfare.
The study evaluates how prediction helps identify the worst-off in welfare programs.
problem Identifying the most vulnerable individuals for support.
method Mathematical models and real-world case study on long-term unemployment.
result Prediction is more effective than other policy levers in surfacing the worst-off.
In many application areas---lending, education, and online recommenders, for example---fairness and equity concerns emerge when a machine learning system interacts with a dynamically changing environment to produce both immediate and long-term effects for individuals and demographic groups. We discuss causal directed a…
Background: Many authors have described MELD as a predictor of short-term mortality in the liver transplantation waiting list. However MELD score accuracy to predict long term mortality has not been statistically evaluated. Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the MELD score as well as other variables as a pr…
Background. Real-world data show that approximately 50% of psoriasis patients treated with a biologic agent will discontinue the drug because of loss of efficacy. History of previous therapy with another biologic, female sex and obesity were identified as predictors of drug discontinuations, but their individual predic…
Paper resolves the debate on process vs. outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.
problem Distinguishing between process and outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.
method Developed a technical tool (Change of Trajectory Measure Lemma) to show equivalence between outcome and process supervision under standard data coverage assumptions.
result Reinforcement learning through outcome supervision is statistically equivalent to process supervision, up to polynomial factors in horizon.
Proposes a model to estimate treatment effects in complex multiagent systems over time.
problem Challenges in evaluating interventions in multiagent systems, especially with time-varying relationships and covariates.
method Interpretable counterfactual recurrent network leveraging graph variational recurrent neural networks and domain knowledge.
result Achieved lower estimation errors and more effective treatment timing than baselines in simulated and real-world scenarios.
Paper develops an attention mechanism for long-term scientific impact prediction.
problem Predicting the long-term impact of scientific papers based on citation records.
method Develops an attention mechanism to predict long-term scientific impact.
result Emphasizing the limited attention can better stand on the shoulders of giants.
Optimizes long-term social welfare in recommender systems by matching users to providers.
problem Realistic recommender systems dynamics affect all agents, not just users.
method Formulated as an optimal constrained matching problem, solved using dynamical system equilibrium selection.
result Ensures maximal social welfare with diverse viable providers, improving over myopic matching.
In recent years, machine learning techniques have been increasingly applied in sensitive decision making processes, raising fairness concerns. Past research has shown that machine learning may reproduce and even exacerbate human bias due to biased training data or flawed model assumptions, and thus may lead to discrimi…
Due to the recent advancements in wearables and sensing technology, health scientists are increasingly developing mobile health (mHealth) interventions. In mHealth interventions, mobile devices are used to deliver treatment to individuals as they go about their daily lives. These treatments are generally designed to im…
New framework for choosing optimal proxy metrics from past experiments.
problem Difficult to measure long-term treatment effects in experiments.
method Statistical framework to define and construct optimal proxy metrics.
result Optimal proxy metric depends on experiment's sample size.
New AI model optimizes personalized care for elderly residents.
problem Limited care workforce impacts health outcomes and quality of life.
method Bandit algorithms for personalized care planning.
result Improves care quality and health outcomes through personalized care planning.
Develops framework for understanding deep learning in time series data.
problem Understanding and explaining decisions made by deep learning models in time series data.
method Uses deep neural networks to capture and explain temporal dependencies in time series data.
result Framework successfully captures and explains temporal dependencies in various synthetic and real-world datasets.
COCOA improves credit assignment in reinforcement learning by measuring contributions to rewards.
problem Improving sample efficiency in reinforcement learning through better credit assignment methods.
method Counterfactual Contribution Analysis (COCOA) for precise credit assignment.
result COCOA achieves lower bias and variance compared to Hindsight Credit Assignment (HCA), improving reinforcement learning performance.
We consider the problem of constructing diffusion operators high dimensional data X to address counterfactual functions F, such as individualized treatment effectiveness. We propose and construct a new diffusion metric KF that captures both the local geometry of X and the directions of variance of F. The res…
New metric MADD assesses fairness of predictive student models.
problem Predictive student models can be biased and unfair, leading to discrimination.
method Proposes MADD metric to analyze model's discriminatory behaviors.
result Fair predictive performance does not guarantee fair behaviors or outcomes.
Dynamic promotion optimization for e-commerce platforms within financial constraints.
problem Balancing promotional costs with incremental revenue for sustainable growth.
method Knapsack Problem formulation for dynamic optimization, Retrospective Estimation, online-dynamic calibration.
result Significant increase in target outcome while staying within financial constraints.
Framework predicts mortality risk in MAFLD subjects.
problem Lack of mortality prediction methods for MAFLD subjects.
method Artificial Intelligence-based framework MAFUS using ML algorithms.
result Support Vector Machines (SVM) is the best model for mortality prediction.
A/B testing, or online experiment is a standard business strategy to compare a new product with an old one in pharmaceutical, technological, and traditional industries. Major challenges arise in online experiments of two-sided marketplace platforms (e.g., Uber) where there is only one unit that receives a sequence of t…
This paper challenges the conventional wisdom of trend-following by showing that the medium-term horizon adds little value once short- and long-term components are included.
problem The conventional wisdom that more horizons improve diversification and performance is challenged.
method A Bayesian optimization framework reallocates exposure dynamically across horizons, optimizing horizon-level weights at the asset level and applying sparsity and turnover control for dynamic allocation across assets.
result The medium-term horizon contributes little incremental performance or diversification once short- and long-term components are included.
Employing a recent technique which allows the representation of nonstationary data by means of a juxtaposition of locally stationary patches of different length, we introduce a comprehensive analysis of the key observables in a financial market: the trading volume and the price fluctuations. From the segmentation proce…
Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network t…
We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, see Biagini et al. [2018], Biagini and Härtel [2014], and El Karoui et a…
Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term data in continuous actions.
method Kernel ridge regression to embed and extrapolate long-term effects.
result Uniform consistency and nonasymptotic error bounds for the estimator.
Bayesian meta-learning predicts Alzheimer's disease progression.
problem Predicting individual Alzheimer's disease progression from limited data.
method Bayesian meta-learning approach that dynamically predicts disease score distributions.
result Bayesian meta-learner outperforms single-task models and deterministic meta-learners, especially for long-term predictions.
Peer review is the foundation of scientific publication, and the task of reviewing has long been seen as a cornerstone of professional service. However, the massive growth in the field of machine learning has put this community benefit under stress, threatening both the sustainability of an effective review process and…