KEDformer improves long-term time series forecasting with seasonal-trend decomposition.
problem Accurate long-term predictions in energy, finance, and meteorology.
method Knowledge extraction-driven framework integrating seasonal-trend decomposition.
result KEDformer enhances model's ability to capture short-term and long-term patterns.
FEDformer combines Transformer with seasonal-trend decomposition for efficient long-term forecasting.
problem Transformer's inefficiency and inability to capture global time series views.
method Combines seasonal-trend decomposition with Transformer, exploiting Fourier basis for frequency enhancement.
result Reduces prediction error by 14.8% and 22.6% for multivariate and univariate time series, respectively.
Study uses G-BSDEs to decompose pricing kernels under robust G-expectation.
problem Long-term decomposition of robust pricing kernels under G-expectation.
method Proposes and analyzes three types of quadratic G-BSDEs to decompose pricing kernels.
result Pricing kernels decomposed into four components: discounting, transitory, symmetric martingale, and volatility uncertainty.
In this paper, in following of the first part (which ADF tests using ACI evaluation) has conducted, Time Series (TSs) are analyzed using decomposition analysis. In fact, TSs are composed of four components including trend (long term behavior or progression of series), cyclic component (non-periodic fluctuation behavior…
MPPN network improves long-term time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Inaccurate long-term time series forecasting due to noise and lack of interpretability.
method MPPN network constructs context-aware multi-resolution semantic units and employs multi-periodic pattern mining and channel adaptive module.
result MPPN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on nine real-world benchmarks.
Most practical recommender systems focus on estimating immediate user engagement without considering the long-term effects of recommendations on user behavior. Reinforcement learning (RL) methods offer the potential to optimize recommendations for long-term user engagement. However, since users are often presented with…
This is a report on our long term project to find an algorithm to decide if a finitely presented group has a non-trivial action on a tree.
Certain theoretical aspects of vector autoregression (VAR) as tools to model economic time series are revised, in particular their capacity to include both short term and long term information. The VAR model, in its error correction form, is derived and the permanent-transitory decomposition of factors proposed by Gonz…
Paper proposes a new LSTM model for spatio-temporal learning.
problem Challenging video tasks require learning long-term spatio-temporal correlations.
method Introduces a higher-order convolutional LSTM model with tensor train decomposition.
result Model achieves state-of-the-art performance with significantly fewer parameters.
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term outcomes from short-term data.
method Reward function decomposition-based framework (LOPE).
result LOPE outperforms existing methods, especially when surrogacy is violated.
Study examines how risk tolerance impacts long-term investment returns.
problem Understanding the impact of risk tolerance on investment returns over time.
method Used Malliavin calculus and Hansen--Scheinkman decomposition.
result Risk aversion affects long-term investment utility through eigenvalues and eigenfunctions.
The paper presents the comparative study of the nature of stock markets in short-term and long-term time scales with and without structural break in the stock data. Structural break point has been identified by applying Zivot and Andrews structural trend break model to break the original time series (TSO) into time ser…
ForecastGAN improves multi-horizon time series forecasting by integrating numerical and categorical features.
problem Limited performance of existing approaches in short-term and long-term forecasting.
method Decomposition, model selection, adversarial training.
result ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting.
Spatial time series forecasting problems arise in a broad range of applications, such as environmental and transportation problems. These problems are challenging because of the existence of specific spatial, short-term and long-term patterns, and the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a deep neural net…
Different investment strategies are adopted in short-term and long-term depending on the time scales, even though time scales are adhoc in nature. Empirical mode decomposition based Hurst exponent analysis and variance technique have been applied to identify the time scales for short-term and long-term investment from …
AIKAE enhances IKAE for long-term time series forecasting.
problem Limitation of dimension conservation in IKAE models.
method Augmented with a non-invertible encoder network.
result AIKAE improves long-term forecasting accuracy.
Spectral methods predict long-term signals from linear and nonlinear systems.
problem Forecasting temporal signals from linear and nonlinear systems with arbitrary sampling.
method Introduces a spectral algorithm for linear signals and extends it to nonlinear systems using Koopman theory.
result The spectral methods achieve high accuracy in forecasting and uncertainty quantification.
Q(Δ)-Learning improves Q-Learning by separating action-value functions into different time scales.
problem Q-Learning struggles with bias-variance trade-off, especially in long-term rewards.
method Introduces Q(Δ)-Learning, extending TD(Δ) to decompose Q(Δ)-function into distinct discount factors. result Q(Δ)-Learning achieves better stability and scalability, especially for long-term tasks. Paper studies pricing and hedging of nonreplicable insurance contracts using benchmark-neutral approach.
problem Pricing and hedging of long-term insurance contracts like variable annuities.
method Benchmark-neutral pricing framework using stock growth optimal portfolio as numéraire.
result Prices can be significantly lower than risk-neutral ones, offering attractive long-term risk-management.
Noise-robust Koopman operator framework for control with improved stability and performance.
problem Developing a stable and noise-robust Koopman operator for control tasks.
method Proposes a learning framework using Hankel matrix and neural network approximations for system dynamics, ensuring long-term stability and noise robustness.
result Demonstrates improved model performance and noise robustness in control tasks compared to existing methods.
This paper addresses the data-driven identification of latent dynamical representations of partially-observed systems, i.e., dynamical systems for which some components are never observed, with an emphasis on forecasting applications, including long-term asymptotic patterns. Whereas state-of-the-art data-driven approac…
Paper uses sparse learning to estimate quasi-potential and drift components in stochastic systems.
problem Estimating quasi-potential and drift components in stochastic systems.
method Sparse identification of non-linear dynamics (SINDy) combined with action minimization methods.
result Evaluation of quasi-potential landscape from a single trajectory.
FreDN separates trends and periodicities in non-stationary time series forecasts.
problem Spectral entanglement and computational burden in frequency-domain methods for non-stationary time series.
method FreDN introduces a learnable Frequency Disentangler module to separate trend and periodic components directly in the frequency domain, and uses a ReIm Block to reduce complexity.
result FreDN outperforms state-of-the-art methods by up to 10% on long-term forecasting benchmarks.
DecompKAN improves time series forecasting accuracy and transparency.
problem Accurate and transparent time series forecasting in scientific domains.
method Combines decomposition, patching, normalization, and B-spline KAN edge functions.
result Achieves best or tied-best MSE on 20 of 36 comparisons across 9 datasets.
Analyst reports contain valuable information for investment decisions.
problem Investment value in analyst reports is not fully understood or utilized.
method Embedded analyst reports with LLMs and ML forecasts of future returns.
result Portfolios formed on analyst report narratives outperform numerical forecasts and established factors.
We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, see Biagini et al. [2018], Biagini and Härtel [2014], and El Karoui et a…
AverageTime uses simple averaging to enhance long-term time series forecasting.
problem Long-term time series forecasting with improved intra-sequence and cross-channel dependencies.
method Proposes AverageTime, a simple, efficient, and scalable forecasting model that reframes channel extraction as a stackable architecture.
result AverageTime surpasses state-of-the-art models in forecasting performance with near-linear complexity.
Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term data in continuous actions.
method Kernel ridge regression to embed and extrapolate long-term effects.
result Uniform consistency and nonasymptotic error bounds for the estimator.
A market portfolio is a portfolio in which each asset is held at a weight proportional to its market value. Functionally generated portfolios are portfolios for which the logarithmic return relative to the market portfolio can be decomposed into a function of the market weights and a process of locally finite variation…
This study applies EMD to MSCI World index and converts IMFs into graphs for GNN modeling.
problem Modeling financial time series with GNNs.
method EMD, CEEMDAN, graph transformations (natural visibility, horizontal visibility, recurrence, transition graphs), topological analysis.
result High-frequency IMFs yield dense, highly connected small-world graphs; low-frequency IMFs produce sparser networks.
Spike-and-wave discharge (SWD) pattern classification in electroencephalography (EEG) signals is a key problem in signal processing. It is particularly important to develop a SWD automatic detection method in long-term EEG recordings since the task of marking the patters manually is time consuming, difficult and error-…
Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a simple but very efficient method for investigating the power-law long-term correlations of non-stationary time series, in which a detrending step is necessary to obtain the local fluctuations at different timescales. We propose to determine the local trends through empirical mo…
Model combines long-term and short-term memory using conceptors.
problem Transfer between long-term and short-term memory.
method Recurrent neural network with gated reservoir for short-term memory and conceptors for long-term memory.
result Standard operations on conceptors allow combining long-term memories and describing their effect on short-term memory.
The study finds a long-term relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
problem Examining the relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
method Used unit root and cointegration tests, ARDL cointegration technique, and Toda-Yamamoto causality test.
result There is a long-run relationship with unidirectional causality from Dubai crude oil to US natural gas.
TimeBridge addresses non-stationarity in long-term time series forecasting.
problem Non-stationarity in multivariate time series leads to spurious regressions and obscures long-term relationships.
method TimeBridge segments series into patches, applying Integrated Attention for short-term non-stationarity and Cointegrated Attention for long-term cointegration.
result TimeBridge achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting.
QR-MIX models joint state-action values as a distribution to handle randomness in MARL.
problem Randomness in rewards and observations leads to randomness in long-term returns in MARL.
method QR-MIX uses quantile regression and combines it with QMIX and IQN to model joint state-action values as a distribution.
result QR-MIX outperforms QMIX in the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) environment.
We propose a new framework for measuring connectedness among financial variables that arises due to heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. To estimate connectedness in short-, medium-, and long-term financial cycles, we introduce a framework based on the spectral representation of variance decompositions. In an e…
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.
The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.
problem Valuation of GLWB-LTC contracts with financial guarantees, longevity protection, and health-contingent LTC payments.
method Coupling a recombining Hull-White trinomial tree with an IMEX finite difference scheme, incorporating a seven-state health model.
result Hybrid tree-IMEX method delivers stable long-maturity prices consistent with simulation benchmarks.
This paper balances short-term and long-term rewards in policy learning.
problem Balancing short-term and long-term rewards in policy learning.
method Formalizes a new framework to balance rewards, identifies rewards under mild assumptions, deduces efficiency bounds, and develops a policy learning approach.
result The proposed method improves the estimator of long-term reward and reduces regret.
A new diffusion model improves time-series forecasting by preserving seasonal patterns.
problem Improving time-series forecasting accuracy, especially for seasonal data.
method A forward diffusion process that decomposes signals into spectral components, altering only the diffusion process.
result The method maintains high signal-to-noise ratios for dominant frequencies, improving long-term pattern recovery.
We study the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA). For all daily and high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property is detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property is found in th…
SWIFT improves time series forecasting on edge devices with wavelet decomposition.
problem Efficient time series forecasting on resource-constrained devices.
method Wavelet decomposition, cross-band fusion, and shared linear mapping.
result SWIFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple datasets.
This paper uses Bayesian models to analyze CTA returns across short and long-term trends.
problem The relative merits and interactions of short- and long-term trend systems in CTA replication remain controversial.
method Dynamic decomposition of CTA returns into short-term trend, long-term trend, and market beta factors using a Bayesian graphical model.
result The blend of horizons shapes the strategy's risk-adjusted performance.
Estimates long-term effects from short-term experiments and observational data with unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating long-term causal effects from short-term experiments and long-term observational data with unobserved confounding.
method Combining regression residuals with short-term experimental outcomes to create an instrumental variable for estimating long-term causal effects.
result The estimator is unbiased and its variance is analytically studied.
The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with persistent unmeasured confounders.
method Exploiting the sequential structure of short-term outcomes, the paper develops three novel identification strategies and corresponding estimators.
result The proposed methods outperform existing approaches in handling persistent confounders.
TiDE uses MLP for fast, simple long-term time-series forecasting.
problem Long-term time-series forecasting challenges.
method Time-series Dense Encoder (TiDE) based on MLP.
result TiDE matches or outperforms Transformer models while being 5-10x faster.
NGRC shows numerical instabilities with short lags and high-degree polynomials.
problem Numerical instabilities in NGRC feature matrix.
method Combining numerical linear algebra and dynamical systems theory, we study feature matrix conditioning. We evaluate different numerical algorithms for solving the regularized least-squares problem.
result SVD-based training achieves accurate forecasts without regularization, preferable for short lags and high-degree polynomials.