Paper presents a method for estimating long-term PDs with incomplete data.
problem Estimating long-term PDs with limited and incomplete historical data.
method Single risk factor approach for simultaneous calibration of PDs across sub-portfolios.
result Method yields long-term PDs without requiring complete historical data.
In recent years, machine learning techniques have been increasingly applied in sensitive decision making processes, raising fairness concerns. Past research has shown that machine learning may reproduce and even exacerbate human bias due to biased training data or flawed model assumptions, and thus may lead to discrimi…
The study proposes a new interest rate model that captures long-term periodicity in U.S. Treasury yields.
problem The conventional Hull-White model fails to adequately capture long-term economic cycles in interest rates.
method The study introduces a sinusoidal Hull-White model with a time-varying mean reversion speed.
result The proposed model improves bond pricing and interest rate derivative valuation, especially for longer maturities.
Modeling daily river flow distribution with seasonal and long-term trends.
problem Capturing both seasonal and gradual long-term changes in environmental variables.
method Distributional regression using GAMLSS framework to estimate daily distribution of river flows.
result Model successfully captures seasonal variation and long-term trends in river flow data.
We analyze long-term memory properties of hourly prices of electricity in the Czech Republic between 2009 and 2012. As the dynamics of the electricity prices is dominated by cycles -- mainly intraday and daily -- we opt for the detrended fluctuation analysis, which is well suited for such specific series. We find that …
Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of the mezo-economic …
This paper is devoted to the important yet little explored subject of the market impact of limit orders. Our analysis is based on a proprietary database of metaorders - large orders that are split into smaller pieces before being sent to the market. We first address the case of aggressive limit orders and then, that of…
We propose a new framework for measuring connectedness among financial variables that arises due to heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. To estimate connectedness in short-, medium-, and long-term financial cycles, we introduce a framework based on the spectral representation of variance decompositions. In an e…
Period estimation is one of the central topics in astronomical time series analysis, where data is often unevenly sampled. Especially challenging are studies of stellar magnetic cycles, as there the periods looked for are of the order of the same length than the datasets themselves. The datasets often contain trends, t…
Proposes a method to learn stable invariant sets in dynamical systems.
problem Learning stable invariant sets in general dynamical systems.
method Generalizes Manek and Kolter's approach by introducing projection onto latent space shapes and using invertible neural networks.
result Validates the method and shows its usefulness for long-term prediction.
We study the problem of learning overcomplete HMMs---those that have many hidden states but a small output alphabet. Despite having significant practical importance, such HMMs are poorly understood with no known positive or negative results for efficient learning. In this paper, we present several new results---both po…
Emerging economies use countercyclical policies to manage crises and dominant currencies.
problem Managing economic crises and fluctuations in dominant currencies like USD and EUR.
method Theoretical analysis, case studies, econometric modeling.
result Emerging economies can stabilize growth with countercyclical monetary policies.
This work tackles maintenance planning with deep reinforcement learning under uncertainty.
problem Optimizing inspection and maintenance policies in deteriorating environments with incomplete information and constraints.
method Joint framework of constrained POMDPs and multi-agent DRL addressing challenges of state/action space, history, uncertainty, and constraints.
result The proposed framework outperforms existing methods in resource and risk-aware decision-making.
Odd crossing numbers and even rotation numbers for cycles in plane immersions.
problem Analyzing crossing and rotation numbers of cycles in plane immersions of graphs.
method Generic immersions and Legendrian embeddings of graphs, focusing on cycles of specific lengths.
result Sum of rotation numbers of all 5-cycles is even, and sum of crossing numbers is odd.
Proves inequality for 1-dimensional cycles.
problem Proving the Parametric Coarea Inequality for 1-cycles.
method Analytical proof based on conjecture by Guth and Liokumovich.
result Proved the Parametric Coarea Inequality for 1-cycles.
This work introduces novel methods to identify and compare cycles across topological objects.
problem Identifying and comparing topological features, particularly cycles, across different topological objects.
method Two complementary approaches: dendrogram-based merge-tree algorithms and Stratified Gradient Sampling.
result Transformed cycle matching into hierarchical clustering and topological optimization framework.
This article introduces proximal planar vortex 1-cycles, resembling the structure of vortex atoms introduced by William Thomson (Lord Kelvin) in 1867 and recent work on the proximity of sets that overlap either spatially or descriptively. Vortex cycles resemble Thomson's model of a vortex atom, inspired by P.G. Tait's …
This paper identifies the unique efficient cycle for most hyperbolic manifolds but not for the figure-8 knot complement.
problem Identifying the unique efficient cycle for hyperbolic manifolds.
method Analyzing the limit of fundamental cycles and their ℓ1-norm convergence. result The uniqueness of the efficient cycle is proven for most hyperbolic manifolds but not for the figure-8 knot complement.
Study Agol cycles for pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
problem Conditions for equivalent Agol cycles of pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
method Investigate necessary and sufficient conditions.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for equivalent Agol cycles of pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
Study shows credit expansion in mortgage markets influenced U.S. business cycle.
problem Lack of causal evidence in cross-country business cycle studies.
method Unique research design combining cross-metropolitan U.S. data.
result Credit expansion caused stronger booms and busts in house-related industries.
Researchers compute Connes-Chamseddine cycle on 6D manifolds using noncommutative integral.
problem Computing the Connes-Chamseddine cycle for 6D manifolds.
method Using noncommutative integral on 6D manifolds, they compute the cycle.
result The Connes-Chamseddine cycle on 6D manifolds is computed.
Gauss diagrams' properties can change with Hamiltonian cycle choice.
problem The impact of Hamiltonian cycle choice on Gauss diagrams.
method Examined realizable and unrealizable Gauss diagrams, and proved preservation of realizability under certain Hamiltonian cycle changes.
result Properties of Gauss diagrams can vary with Hamiltonian cycle choice.
Proximal algorithms applied to current deformation into cycles.
problem Deformation of de Rham currents into cycles.
method Proximal algorithms, total variation denoising for differential forms.
result Calibrated cycles constructed in calibrated manifolds.
New algorithm for learning causal structures with disjoint cycles in linear non-Gaussian models.
problem Learning causal structures with cycles in linear non-Gaussian models.
method Characterizing when graphs determine the same model, using quadratic and cubic polynomial relations, and a strategy of decorrelating cycles and multivariate regression.
result Consistent and computationally efficient algorithm for learning causal structures with disjoint cycles.
Credit expansion led to stronger household leverage cycles during the U.S. business cycle.
problem Understanding the role of credit supply in the U.S. business cycle.
method Causal evidence from 1999-2010 U.S. business cycle data.
result Credit expansion, particularly in private-label mortgages, caused stronger household leverage cycles.
In the current article we study complex cycles of higher multiplicity in a specific polynomial family of holomorphic foliations in the complex plane. The family in question is a perturbation of an exact polynomial one-form giving rise to a foliation by Riemann surfaces. In this setting, a complex cycle is defined as a …
In this paper, we introduce a novel task for machine learning in healthcare, namely personalized modeling of the female hormonal cycle. The motivation for this work is to model the hormonal cycle and predict its phases in time, both for healthy individuals and for those with disorders of the reproductive system. Becaus…
AdaBoost cycles in probability simplex dynamics.
problem Understanding cycling behavior in AdaBoost.
method Computational methods and dynamical systems analysis.
result Correspondence between AdaBoost cycling and continued fractions dynamics.
We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, see Biagini et al. [2018], Biagini and Härtel [2014], and El Karoui et a…
Smooth approximation of integral cycles mod 2 in Riemannian manifolds.
problem Approximating mod 2 integral cycles by smooth submanifolds.
method Approximation of mod 2 integral cycles by smooth submanifolds with controlled singularities.
result Every mod 2 integral cycle can be approximated by a smooth submanifold with a controlled singular set.
Constructs an explicit cycle in arithmetic group cohomology.
problem Cohomology of SLn(Z) at virtual cohomological dimension. method Geometric rigidity of Voronoi tessellations and abstract framework for polyhedral tessellations.
result Explicit canonical cycle in top-dimensional homology of Voronoi complex.
Using Kontsevich's identification of the homology of the Lie algebra l_infty with the cohomology of Out(F_r), Morita defined a sequence of 4k-dimensional classes mu_k in the unstable rational homology of Out(F_{2k+2}). He showed by a computer calculation that the first of these is non-trivial, so coincides with the uni…
Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term data in continuous actions.
method Kernel ridge regression to embed and extrapolate long-term effects.
result Uniform consistency and nonasymptotic error bounds for the estimator.
We introduce a notion of vanishing Maslov index for lagrangian varifolds and lagrangian integral cycles in a Calabi-Yau manifold. We construct mass-decreasing flows of lagrangian varifolds and lagrangian cycles which satisfy this condition. The flow of cycles converges, at infinite time, to a sum of special lagrangian …
Approximates cycles in planar and bounded-genus graphs.
problem Finding many disjoint cycles in planar and bounded-genus graphs.
method Constant-factor approximation algorithms for vertex-disjoint and edge-disjoint cycles.
result First algorithms for vertex-disjoint paths in fully planar and bounded-genus instances.
Study examines cash conversion cycle in manufacturing firms, finding negative relationships with profitability and size.
problem Understanding cash conversion cycle in manufacturing firms and its impact on profitability and size.
method Empirical study of 30 manufacturing firms in Dhaka Stock Exchanges, categorizing them into six industries, analyzing industry averages and relationships with size and profitability.
result Negative relationship between cash conversion cycle and profitability, especially ROE; negative relationship with firm size in terms of net sales.
By generalizing the measurements on the game experiments of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, we study the dynamical pattern in a representative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE). The DSGE model describes the entanglements of the three variables (output gap [y], inflation [π] and nominal interest rate [$…
We present a necessary and sufficient condition for existence of a contractible, non-separating and noncontractible separating Hamiltonian cycle in the edge graph of polyhedral maps on surfaces. In particular, we show the existence of contractible Hamiltonian cycle in equivelar triangulated maps. We also present an alg…
Endogenous business cycles explain higher comovement across countries.
problem Standard models struggle to explain high comovement in business cycles across countries.
method Developed a demand-driven reduced-form model with strategic complementarities and international trade linkages.
result Combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks matches empirical comovement levels.
Study Agol cycles in pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
problem Understanding conjugacy invariants of pseudo-Anosov maps.
method Investigate train tracks associated with Farey intervals and describe Agol cycles.
result Complete description of Agol cycles in pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
Study of height jumps in Ceresa cycle using asymptotic Hodge theory.
problem Understanding height jumps in the Ceresa cycle.
method Analysis of asymptotic behavior of Hain-Reed beta-invariant in degenerating families of curves.
result Height jump of Ceresa cycle is equal to the slope of the dual graph of the curve.
Smooth approximation of integral cycles in manifolds.
problem Approximating integral cycles in Riemannian manifolds.
method Approximation of integral cycles by smooth submanifolds with controlled area and singularities.
result Integral cycles can be approximated by smooth submanifolds with controlled area and singularities.
Dual decomposition provides a tractable framework for designing algorithms for finding the most probable (MAP) configuration in graphical models. However, for many real-world inference problems, the typical decomposition has a large integrality gap, due to frustrated cycles. One way to tighten the relaxation is to intr…
Model combines long-term and short-term memory using conceptors.
problem Transfer between long-term and short-term memory.
method Recurrent neural network with gated reservoir for short-term memory and conceptors for long-term memory.
result Standard operations on conceptors allow combining long-term memories and describing their effect on short-term memory.
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term outcomes from short-term data.
method Reward function decomposition-based framework (LOPE).
result LOPE outperforms existing methods, especially when surrogacy is violated.
Proves the Weyl law for 1-cycles in manifolds.
problem Proving the Weyl law for the volume spectrum of 1-cycles in n-dimensional manifolds.
method Using parametric versions of the coarea inequality and isoperimetric inequality, along with a localized approximation method.
result Proves the Weyl law for 1-cycles in manifolds.
TimeBridge addresses non-stationarity in long-term time series forecasting.
problem Non-stationarity in multivariate time series leads to spurious regressions and obscures long-term relationships.
method TimeBridge segments series into patches, applying Integrated Attention for short-term non-stationarity and Cointegrated Attention for long-term cointegration.
result TimeBridge achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting.
The current article studies certain problems related to complex cycles of holomorphic foliations with singularities in the complex plane. We focus on the case when polynomial differential one-form gives rise to a foliation by Riemann surfaces. In this setting, a complex cycle is defined as a nontrivial element of the f…