This paper looks into the analysis of the long-range auto-correlations and cross-correlations in bond market. Based on Detrended Moving Average (DMA) method, empirical results present a clear evidence of long-range persistence that exists in one year scale. The degree of long-range correlation related to maturities has…
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48 results for “long-range structure”
Long-range dependence in Interest Rates and Monetary Policyphysics.data-an
This paper studies the dynamics of Brazilian interest rates for short-term maturities. The paper employs developed techniques in the econophysics literature and tests for long-range dependence in the term structure of these interest rates for the last decade. Empirical results suggest that the degree of long-range depe…
IGNN captures long-range graph dependencies using fixed-point equations.
problem Limited GNN ability to capture long-range graph dependencies.
method Fixed-point equilibrium equations involving implicitly defined state vectors, leveraging Perron-Frobenius theory and projected gradient descent.
result IGNN consistently captures long-range dependencies and outperforms state-of-the-art GNNs.
Proving that next-token prediction makes language models generate coherent long documents.
problem Understanding why language models generate coherent documents despite focusing on next-token prediction.
method Proving the power of next-token prediction in learning longer-range structure using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).
result Optimizing next-token prediction in RNNs yields a model that closely approximates the training distribution, even for long-range coherence.
Introduces Spectral Attention for better long-range time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in capturing long-range dependencies in time series forecasting.
method Spectral Attention mechanism that preserves temporal correlations and long-range dependencies.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on 11 real-world time series datasets.
Novel graph neural network combines random walks with local message passing.
problem Graph neural networks struggle with long-range dependencies.
method Combines random walks with local message passing in a novel architecture.
result Significant performance improvements on graph benchmarks.
This paper presents empirical evidence using recently developed techniques in econophysics suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of interest rates for the US and find evidence that global Hurst exponents change dramat…
Long-Range Dependence in Financial Markets: Empirical Evidence and Generative Modeling Challengesq-fin.ST
Study finds long-range dependence in financial markets, but deep generative models struggle to replicate it.
problem Long-range dependence in financial markets and challenges of deep generative models.
method Empirical analysis of financial data from three sectors, including LRD through various statistical methods and deep learning models.
result Deep generative models can reproduce stylized features but fail to capture long-range dependence structures.
HC-GNN tackles long-range graph information and high-order neighbourhoods.
problem Costly encoding of long-range information and failure to encode high-order neighbourhoods.
method Hierarchical structure with multi-level super graphs and innovative intra- and inter-level propagation.
result HC-GNN efficiently captures long-range interactions and incorporates meso- and macro-level semantics.
Missing value imputation is a fundamental problem in spatiotemporal modeling, from motion tracking to the dynamics of physical systems. Deep autoregressive models suffer from error propagation which becomes catastrophic for imputing long-range sequences. In this paper, we take a non-autoregressive approach and propose …
Research on long-range memory in financial and social systems using various models.
problem Understanding the nature of long-range memory in socioeconomic systems.
method Various Markov processes including point processes, stochastic differential equations, and agent-based models.
result New estimators of self-similarity and long-range memory for non-Gaussian systems are needed.
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
problem Varying results from long-range memory estimators in financial markets.
method Burst and inter-burst duration statistical analysis of limit order book data.
result The new method provides a more reliable evaluation of the Hurst exponent.
Transformers can perform well with less long-range memory.
problem The need for deep long-range memory in Transformers for language modeling.
method Performed interventions to show performance can be achieved with fewer long-range memories and by limiting attention range.
result Comparable performance can be achieved with 6X fewer long-range memories and better performance with limited attention range.
Persistent homology enhances graph classification by capturing long-range graph properties.
problem Lack of formal assessment of persistent homology in graph learning.
method Brief introduction and theoretical discussion of persistent homology in graph context, followed by empirical analysis.
result Persistent homology improves graph classification, especially for data with prominent topological structures.
Long-range correlation and fluctuation in the gold market time series of world's two leading gold consuming countries, namely China and India, are studied. For both the market series during the period 1985-2013 we observe a long-range persistence of memory in the sequences of maxima (minima) of returns in successive ti…
A method for estimating the cross-correlation of long-range correlated series and , at varying lags and scales , is proposed. For fractional Brownian motions with Hurst exponents and , the asymptotic expression of depends only on the lag (wide-sense stationarit…
Improved GNN handles long-range dependencies in multi-relational graphs.
problem Vanishing gradients in GNNs for multi-relational graphs.
method Proposes a Gated Graph Neural Network with improved long-range dependency handling.
result Outperforms popular GNN models in synthetic tasks.
Combines PCA and message passing for better graph node embeddings.
problem Challenges of learning long-range dependencies in graph data.
method PCAPass: PCA + message passing for unsupervised node embeddings.
result Empirically shows competitive performance on node classification benchmarks.
Financial Frequency Combsnlin.PS
Financial frequency combs emerge from macroeconomic long-range memory.
problem Financial economy's long-run cyclic structure
method Incommensurate fractional-order financial model
result Frequency comb structure in steady-state spectrum
We investigate how simultaneously recorded long-range power-law correlated multi-variate signals cross-correlate. To this end we introduce a two-component ARFIMA stochastic process and a two-component FIARCH process to generate coupled fractal signals with long-range power-law correlations which are at the same time lo…
Cohesion uses deep Koopman operators to generate long-range forecasts of chaotic dynamics.
problem Challenges in data-driven emulation of chaotic dynamics, especially long-range skill decay.
method Generative modeling with coherent priors estimated using reduced-order models.
result Superior long-range forecasting skill on chaotic systems, including climate dynamics.
Improved Mamba model for long-range sequence tasks.
problem Mamba's poor performance on long-range sequential tasks.
method Proposed B2S6, combining block-wise selective dynamics and channel-specific bias.
result Empirically, B2S6 outperforms S4 and S4D on LRA tasks.
Prediction and interpolation for long-range video data involves the complex task of modeling motion trajectories for each visible object, occlusions and dis-occlusions, as well as appearance changes due to viewpoint and lighting. Optical flow based techniques generalize but are suitable only for short temporal ranges. …
A main theoretical interest in biology and physics is to identify the nonlinear dynamical system (DS) that generated observed time series. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are, in principle, powerful enough to approximate any underlying DS, but in their vanilla form suffer from the exploding vs. vanishing gradients pro…
In this paper, we propose TopicRNN, a recurrent neural network (RNN)-based language model designed to directly capture the global semantic meaning relating words in a document via latent topics. Because of their sequential nature, RNNs are good at capturing the local structure of a word sequence - both semantic and syn…
DRew dynamically rewires message passing to improve long-range tasks.
problem Over-squashing in MPNNs due to local message passing.
method Layer-dependent rewiring and delay mechanism for gradual densification.
result DRew outperforms graph Transformers and multi-hop MPNNs on long-range tasks.
Fractal analysis is carried out on the stock market indices of seven European countries and the US. We find evidence of long range dependence in the log return series of the Mibtel (Italy) and the PX Glob (Czech Republic). Long range dependence implies that predictable patterns in the log returns do not dissipate quick…
Novel neural network layer improves long-range interactions in point clouds.
problem Efficiently treating long-range interactions in point clouds.
method Long-range convolutional (LRC)-layer that incorporates Fourier transforms.
result Global all-to-all convolution operation performed in nearly-linear time.
HGNet improves GNNs' ability to handle long-range interactions in graphs.
problem Insufficiency of GNNs in capturing long-range interactions.
method Introduces hierarchical message passing models with multi-resolution graph representations.
result HGNet outperforms conventional GNNs in molecular property prediction.
Spatial and time-dependent data is of interest in many applications. This task is difficult due to its complex spatial dependency, long-range temporal dependency, data non-stationarity, and data heterogeneity. To address these challenges, we propose Forecaster, a graph Transformer architecture. Specifically, we start b…
New method improves deep learning model robustness and accuracy for long sequences.
problem Challenges in learning long-range sequence tasks using state-space models.
method Proposes a perturb-then-diagonalize (PTD) methodology to address ill-posed diagonalization problems in SSMs.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and accuracy of S5-PTD model on Long-Range Arena benchmark.
A method to generate long-range human actions by leveraging graph convolutional networks and self-attention.
problem Generating long-range skeleton-based human actions is challenging due to small frame deviations.
method Proposes a variant of GCNs with self-attention to adaptively sparsify action graphs and capture structure information.
result Extensive experiments show superior performance compared to existing methods on human action datasets.
This study uses moving average cluster entropy to analyze financial market dynamics.
problem Understanding long-range dependence in financial markets.
method Moving average cluster entropy approach applied to ARFIMA and FBM processes.
result Long-range positive correlation in financial markets is linked to the cluster entropy behavior.
We present the Compressive Transformer, an attentive sequence model which compresses past memories for long-range sequence learning. We find the Compressive Transformer obtains state-of-the-art language modelling results in the WikiText-103 and Enwik8 benchmarks, achieving 17.1 ppl and 0.97 bpc respectively. We also fi…
We introduce a new method for detection of long-range cross-correlations and multifractality - multifractal height cross-correlation analysis (MF-HXA) - based on scaling of qth order covariances. MF-HXA is a bivariate generalization of the height-height correlation analysis of Barabasi & Vicsek [Barabasi, A.L., Vicsek,…
pLSTM tackles long-range language modeling and computer vision tasks with parallelizable linear source transition mark networks.
problem Challenges of existing recurrent architectures in handling sequences and multi-dimensional data.
method Introduces pLSTM, a parallelizable linear source transition mark network for linear graphs and DAGs, addressing vanishing/exploding activation/gradient issues.
result pLSTM outperforms Transformers in long-range tasks like arrow-pointing extrapolation and image size extrapolation.
Realistic music generation is a challenging task. When building generative models of music that are learnt from data, typically high-level representations such as scores or MIDI are used that abstract away the idiosyncrasies of a particular performance. But these nuances are very important for our perception of musical…
QTD integrates quantization with diffusion for efficient data generation.
problem Challenges in continuous diffusion models, especially long-range transitions and biases.
method Quantized Transition Diffusion (QTD) integrates data quantization with discrete diffusion dynamics.
result QTD achieves efficient data generation with minimal score evaluations.
We propose a new method (implemented in an R-program) to simulate long-range daily stock-price data. The program reproduces various stylized facts much better than various parametric models from the extended GARCH-family. In particular, the empirically observed changes in unconditional variance are truthfully mirrored …
Despite its importance, choosing the structural form of the kernel in nonparametric regression remains a black art. We define a space of kernel structures which are built compositionally by adding and multiplying a small number of base kernels. We present a method for searching over this space of structures which mirro…
Long-range correlation in financial time series reflects the complex dynamics of the stock markets driven by algorithms and human decisions. Our analysis exploits ultra-high frequency order book data from NASDAQ Nordic over a period of three years to numerically estimate the power-law scaling exponents using detrended …
Graph neural networks struggle to propagate long-range information, causing over-squashing.
problem Graph neural networks struggle to propagate long-range information.
method Identified over-squashing as the bottleneck in GNNs, demonstrated on various models.
result Breaking the bottleneck improves GNNs' performance on long-range problems.
We show how to analyze and interpret the correlation structures, the conditional expectation values and correlation coefficients of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables. We study implied default distributions for the iTraxx-CJ tranches and some popular probabilistic models, including the Gaussian copula model, Beta …
Volterra mortality model: Actuarial valuation and risk management with long-range dependenceq-fin.MF
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.
problem Lack of appropriate models for valuing and managing mortality securities with long-range dependence.
method Proposes a novel class of Volterra mortality models that incorporate LRD, derived in closed-form solution.
result Models provide flexibility and tractability for valuing and hedging mortality-related products.
We report an empirical study of the Ibovespa index of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange in which we detect the existence of long-range correlations. To analyze our data we introduce a rescaled variant of the usual Detrended Fluctuation Analysis that allows us to obtain the Hurst exponent through a one-parameter fitting. We …
Transformers improve time series modeling by capturing long-range dependencies.
problem Capturing long-range dependencies in time series data.
method Summarized and reviewed adaptations of Transformers for time series analysis.
result Transformers enhance time series forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification.
Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the same long range memory properties. Here we present a stochastic differential eq…
S4 model improves long sequence modeling efficiency.
problem Handling long-range dependencies efficiently in convolutional models.
method S4 model uses global convolution with decaying kernel weights.
result SGConv model achieves similar performance to S4 with improved efficiency.