We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financia…
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48 results for “long-range reasoning”
D-LinOSS models learn to dissipate energy, improving performance on long-range tasks.
problem Representational limitations of LinOSS models in long-range reasoning.
method Introducing Damped Linear Oscillatory State-Space models (D-LinOSS) that learn to dissipate latent state energy on arbitrary time scales.
result D-LinOSS consistently outperforms previous LinOSS methods on long-range learning tasks, achieving faster convergence and reducing hyperparameter search space.
New neural model processes 2D data with long-range dependencies efficiently.
problem Limited receptive field of convolutions for complex 2D tasks.
method Proposes Matrix Shuffle-Exchange network with layers and complexity.
result Exceeds convolutional and graph neural network baselines in long-range dependency modeling.
Method integrates logical rules into neural multi-hop reasoning for drug repurposing.
problem Capturing long-range dependencies in biomedical data.
method Combines logical rules with neural multi-hop reasoning using reinforcement learning.
result Our method outperforms baseline methods in drug repurposing tasks.
Hydra boosts efficiency for long-context reasoning in resource-constrained settings.
problem Quadratic complexity of transformers limits long-context reasoning in resource-constrained systems.
method Hydra uses a modular architecture with adaptive routing between sparse global attention, mixture-of-experts, and dual memories.
result Hydra achieves significant throughput and accuracy improvements for long-context reasoning.
XLVINs improve deep reinforcement learning by combining self-supervised learning and neural algorithmic reasoning.
problem Limitations of Value Iteration Networks (VINs) in deep reinforcement learning.
method Combining contrastive self-supervised learning, graph representation learning, and neural algorithmic reasoning.
result XLVINs match VIN-like models on discrete, fixed MDPs and significantly outperform model-free baselines.
GAttNHP predicts future events in temporal knowledge graphs by encoding long-range dependencies and handling mutual excitation.
problem Forecasting future events in temporal knowledge graphs due to long-range dependencies, mutual excitation, and heavy-tailed inter-arrival times.
method GAttNHP uses a self-attention encoder, semantic soft-grouping, and NCQ regression to address these issues.
result GAttNHP improves entity and time prediction on six benchmark TKG datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, with generalization properties determined by a kernel function. When used for long-range extrapolation, predictions are particularly sensitive to the choice of kernel parameters. It is therefore critical to account for kernel uncertainty in our predictive distri…
This paper looks into the analysis of the long-range auto-correlations and cross-correlations in bond market. Based on Detrended Moving Average (DMA) method, empirical results present a clear evidence of long-range persistence that exists in one year scale. The degree of long-range correlation related to maturities has…
Research on long-range memory in financial and social systems using various models.
problem Understanding the nature of long-range memory in socioeconomic systems.
method Various Markov processes including point processes, stochastic differential equations, and agent-based models.
result New estimators of self-similarity and long-range memory for non-Gaussian systems are needed.
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
problem Varying results from long-range memory estimators in financial markets.
method Burst and inter-burst duration statistical analysis of limit order book data.
result The new method provides a more reliable evaluation of the Hurst exponent.
Transformers can perform well with less long-range memory.
problem The need for deep long-range memory in Transformers for language modeling.
method Performed interventions to show performance can be achieved with fewer long-range memories and by limiting attention range.
result Comparable performance can be achieved with 6X fewer long-range memories and better performance with limited attention range.
Improved GNN handles long-range dependencies in multi-relational graphs.
problem Vanishing gradients in GNNs for multi-relational graphs.
method Proposes a Gated Graph Neural Network with improved long-range dependency handling.
result Outperforms popular GNN models in synthetic tasks.
Introduces Spectral Attention for better long-range time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in capturing long-range dependencies in time series forecasting.
method Spectral Attention mechanism that preserves temporal correlations and long-range dependencies.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on 11 real-world time series datasets.
We investigate how simultaneously recorded long-range power-law correlated multi-variate signals cross-correlate. To this end we introduce a two-component ARFIMA stochastic process and a two-component FIARCH process to generate coupled fractal signals with long-range power-law correlations which are at the same time lo…
Improved Mamba model for long-range sequence tasks.
problem Mamba's poor performance on long-range sequential tasks.
method Proposed B2S6, combining block-wise selective dynamics and channel-specific bias.
result Empirically, B2S6 outperforms S4 and S4D on LRA tasks.
Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign is uncorrelated in time, their amplitude (or volatility) is long-range correlate…
Novel graph neural network combines random walks with local message passing.
problem Graph neural networks struggle with long-range dependencies.
method Combines random walks with local message passing in a novel architecture.
result Significant performance improvements on graph benchmarks.
DRew dynamically rewires message passing to improve long-range tasks.
problem Over-squashing in MPNNs due to local message passing.
method Layer-dependent rewiring and delay mechanism for gradual densification.
result DRew outperforms graph Transformers and multi-hop MPNNs on long-range tasks.
Fractal analysis is carried out on the stock market indices of seven European countries and the US. We find evidence of long range dependence in the log return series of the Mibtel (Italy) and the PX Glob (Czech Republic). Long range dependence implies that predictable patterns in the log returns do not dissipate quick…
Novel neural network layer improves long-range interactions in point clouds.
problem Efficiently treating long-range interactions in point clouds.
method Long-range convolutional (LRC)-layer that incorporates Fourier transforms.
result Global all-to-all convolution operation performed in nearly-linear time.
HGNet improves GNNs' ability to handle long-range interactions in graphs.
problem Insufficiency of GNNs in capturing long-range interactions.
method Introduces hierarchical message passing models with multi-resolution graph representations.
result HGNet outperforms conventional GNNs in molecular property prediction.
Long-range dependence in Interest Rates and Monetary Policyphysics.data-an
This paper studies the dynamics of Brazilian interest rates for short-term maturities. The paper employs developed techniques in the econophysics literature and tests for long-range dependence in the term structure of these interest rates for the last decade. Empirical results suggest that the degree of long-range depe…
This paper presents empirical evidence using recently developed techniques in econophysics suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of interest rates for the US and find evidence that global Hurst exponents change dramat…
This study uses moving average cluster entropy to analyze financial market dynamics.
problem Understanding long-range dependence in financial markets.
method Moving average cluster entropy approach applied to ARFIMA and FBM processes.
result Long-range positive correlation in financial markets is linked to the cluster entropy behavior.
Neural dialogue models, despite their successes, still suffer from lack of relevance, diversity, and in many cases coherence in their generated responses. These issues can attributed to reasons including (1) short-range model architectures that capture limited temporal dependencies, (2) limitations of the maximum likel…
We present the Compressive Transformer, an attentive sequence model which compresses past memories for long-range sequence learning. We find the Compressive Transformer obtains state-of-the-art language modelling results in the WikiText-103 and Enwik8 benchmarks, achieving 17.1 ppl and 0.97 bpc respectively. We also fi…
We introduce a new method for detection of long-range cross-correlations and multifractality - multifractal height cross-correlation analysis (MF-HXA) - based on scaling of qth order covariances. MF-HXA is a bivariate generalization of the height-height correlation analysis of Barabasi & Vicsek [Barabasi, A.L., Vicsek,…
IGNN captures long-range graph dependencies using fixed-point equations.
problem Limited GNN ability to capture long-range graph dependencies.
method Fixed-point equilibrium equations involving implicitly defined state vectors, leveraging Perron-Frobenius theory and projected gradient descent.
result IGNN consistently captures long-range dependencies and outperforms state-of-the-art GNNs.
We propose a new method (implemented in an R-program) to simulate long-range daily stock-price data. The program reproduces various stylized facts much better than various parametric models from the extended GARCH-family. In particular, the empirically observed changes in unconditional variance are truthfully mirrored …
Long-range correlation in financial time series reflects the complex dynamics of the stock markets driven by algorithms and human decisions. Our analysis exploits ultra-high frequency order book data from NASDAQ Nordic over a period of three years to numerically estimate the power-law scaling exponents using detrended …
Graph neural networks struggle to propagate long-range information, causing over-squashing.
problem Graph neural networks struggle to propagate long-range information.
method Identified over-squashing as the bottleneck in GNNs, demonstrated on various models.
result Breaking the bottleneck improves GNNs' performance on long-range problems.
Volterra mortality model: Actuarial valuation and risk management with long-range dependenceq-fin.MF
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.
problem Lack of appropriate models for valuing and managing mortality securities with long-range dependence.
method Proposes a novel class of Volterra mortality models that incorporate LRD, derived in closed-form solution.
result Models provide flexibility and tractability for valuing and hedging mortality-related products.
Proving that next-token prediction makes language models generate coherent long documents.
problem Understanding why language models generate coherent documents despite focusing on next-token prediction.
method Proving the power of next-token prediction in learning longer-range structure using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).
result Optimizing next-token prediction in RNNs yields a model that closely approximates the training distribution, even for long-range coherence.
Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the same long range memory properties. Here we present a stochastic differential eq…
Representation and learning of long-range dependencies is a central challenge confronted in modern applications of machine learning to sequence data. Yet despite the prominence of this issue, the basic problem of measuring long-range dependence, either in a given data source or as represented in a trained deep model, r…
Anomalous diffusion and long-range memory in the scaled voter modelcond-mat.stat-mech
Analyzed a generalized voter model with power-law herding intensity, revealing anomalous diffusion and long-range memory.
problem Anomalous diffusion and long-range memory in a generalized voter model.
method Derived analytical expressions for moments and first passage time distribution, confirmed numerically.
result The model exhibits long-range memory indicators despite being a Markov model.
Develops a bi-variate stochastic framework to model mortality and interest rates with long-range dependence.
problem Captures long-range dependence and instantaneous correlation in mortality and interest rates.
method Mixed fractional Brownian motions, analytical solutions, risk-neutral measure, sequential parameter estimation.
result Explicit pricing of zero-coupon bonds and extreme mortality bonds, practical implications for pricing and risk management.
Cointegration helps insurers understand long-range mortality patterns.
problem Insurers struggle to detect long-range dependence in their mortality data.
method Cointegration techniques applied to mixed fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) to capture long-range dependence.
result Cointegration brings long-range dependence information from national mortality data to insurers' models.
In this work, we develop a novel regularizer to improve the learning of long-range dependency of sequence data. Applied on language modelling, our regularizer expresses the inductive bias that sequence variables should have high mutual information even though the model might not see abundant observations for complex lo…
Missing value imputation is a fundamental problem in spatiotemporal modeling, from motion tracking to the dynamics of physical systems. Deep autoregressive models suffer from error propagation which becomes catastrophic for imputing long-range sequences. In this paper, we take a non-autoregressive approach and propose …
Self-attention prefers sparse functions of input sequences, reducing sample complexity.
problem Understanding the inductive biases of self-attention in modeling long-range dependencies.
method Theoretical analysis and synthetic experiments to probe sample complexity of learning sparse functions with Transformers.
result Bounded-norm Transformer networks can represent sparse functions of the input sequence with logarithmic sample complexity.
A Unified Framework for Long Range and Cold Start Forecasting of Seasonal Profiles in Time Seriesstat.ML
Providing long-range forecasts is a fundamental challenge in time series modeling, which is only compounded by the challenge of having to form such forecasts when a time series has never previously been observed. The latter challenge is the time series version of the cold-start problem seen in recommender systems which…
A major drawback of backpropagation through time (BPTT) is the difficulty of learning long-term dependencies, coming from having to propagate credit information backwards through every single step of the forward computation. This makes BPTT both computationally impractical and biologically implausible. For this reason,…
We introduce a new test for detection of power-law cross-correlations among a pair of time series - the rescaled covariance test. The test is based on a power-law divergence of the covariance of the partial sums of the long-range cross-correlated processes. Utilizing a heteroskedasticity and auto-correlation robust est…
Persistent homology enhances graph classification by capturing long-range graph properties.
problem Lack of formal assessment of persistent homology in graph learning.
method Brief introduction and theoretical discussion of persistent homology in graph context, followed by empirical analysis.
result Persistent homology improves graph classification, especially for data with prominent topological structures.
In this paper, we present the results of Monte Carlo simulations for two popular techniques of long-range correlations detection - classical and modified rescaled range analyses. A focus is put on an effect of different distributional properties on an ability of the methods to efficiently distinguish between short and …
Rough Transformers improve efficiency for medical time-series data.
problem Efficiently modeling irregularly sampled, long-range time-series data.
method Introducing Rough Transformers, a Transformer variant with continuous-time representations and multi-view signature attention.
result Rough Transformers outperform vanilla Transformers while using less computational resources.