This paper improves LSTM networks for long-term forecasts.
problem Challenges in long-horizon forecasting using LSTM networks.
method Expectation-biased LSTM architectures and methods.
result Significantly improved long-horizon forecasting performance.
Study long-term asset liquidation behavior with external flows.
problem Investigate optimal liquidation in presence of external flows.
method Convergence analysis of BSDEs for value function and strategy.
result Long-term liquidation may not occur due to external flows.
Reservoir computing predicts chaotic systems for long horizons with sparse updates.
problem Predicting chaotic systems with long horizons using limited data.
method Sparse, time-dependent data inputs into reservoir computing.
result Achieves arbitrarily long prediction horizons for chaotic systems.
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
problem Misleading claims about reducing risk with longer investment horizons and DCA.
method Unified probabilistic framework, defining risk and uncertainty, and introducing effective investment exposure.
result Different investment timing strategies can lead to distinct exposure profiles over time, affecting risk and uncertainty.
Predicts long-term return distributions with time-varying volatility.
problem Risk management in long-horizon returns.
method Predicts future return distributions without specifying volatility dynamics or shock distribution.
result Derives risk measures like VaR and CTE from the predicted return distribution.
This review tackles long horizon forecasting in time series analysis using deep learning.
problem Long horizon forecasting in time series analysis.
method Incorporates deep learning techniques such as trend, seasonality, Fourier and wavelet transforms, and various model architectures.
result LHF is an error propagation problem, with models like xLSTM and Triformer showing better performance.
LLapDiff models irregular multivariate time series without step-by-step integration.
problem Trade-off between discrete and continuous methods for long-horizon forecasting.
method Generative framework that models target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, guided by modal parameterization and Laplace domain poles.
result Improves long-horizon forecasting over baselines and supports missing-value imputation.
ForecastGAN improves multi-horizon time series forecasting by integrating numerical and categorical features.
problem Limited performance of existing approaches in short-term and long-term forecasting.
method Decomposition, model selection, adversarial training.
result ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting.
New method produces coherent forecasts for long-range data.
problem Inaccurate and non-coherent forecasts on long-horizon data.
method Probabilistic forecasting with KL-divergence for coherent aggregates.
result Improves forecast performance across base levels and aggregates.
DMIDAS improves long-term forecasting accuracy in healthcare and electricity data.
problem Challenging long-term forecasting accuracy and computational complexity.
method Smoothness regularization and mixed data sampling techniques integrated into NBEATS architecture.
result Improves prediction accuracy by 5% on long forecasting horizons (1000 timestamps) compared to state-of-the-art models.
Develops LSTM for predicting neuronal dynamics over long time-horizons.
problem Understanding and controlling complex brain behaviors.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architecture for multi-time step predictions.
result LSTM improves short time-horizon prediction accuracy and multi-time step predictions of neuronal dynamics.
FDS tackles long horizon hyperparameter optimization issues.
problem Memory scaling and gradient degradation in long horizon tasks.
method Forward-mode differentiation with sharing (FDS).
result Significantly outperforms greedy gradient-based alternatives.
Compositional diffusion models simulate coupled PDEs efficiently.
problem Efficiently simulating long-horizon coupled PDE systems.
method Diffusion models trained on decoupled data are composed at inference time.
result Compositional diffusion models recover coupled trajectories with low error.
Short-horizon bias causes meta-optimization to favor small learning rates.
problem Short-horizon bias in meta-optimization leads to suboptimal learning rates.
method Analyzes a noisy quadratic cost function and runs meta-optimization experiments on benchmark datasets.
result Meta-optimization chooses too small a learning rate, even with a long time horizon.
Max entropy exploration guides reinforcement learning agents to pursue achievable goals.
problem Achieving distant test-time goals in long-horizon tasks.
method Optimize entropy of historical achieved goals by focusing on sparsely explored areas.
result Order of magnitude better sample efficiency on long-horizon multi-goal tasks.
New algorithms for efficient learning with long-term rewards in contextual bandits.
problem Efficient learning with long-term rewards in contextual bandits.
method Proposes new algorithms leveraging sparsity to discover dependence patterns and arm parameters.
result Regret upper bounds for data-poor and data-rich regimes, showing improved sample complexity.
This study examines how investor sentiment's predictive power varies with stock characteristics over different time horizons.
problem Investor sentiment's predictive effect on stock returns varies with stock characteristics and time horizon.
method Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain.
result Investor sentiment has varying predictability lengths (short vs. long) for different stock characteristics.
This paper challenges the conventional wisdom of trend-following by showing that the medium-term horizon adds little value once short- and long-term components are included.
problem The conventional wisdom that more horizons improve diversification and performance is challenged.
method A Bayesian optimization framework reallocates exposure dynamically across horizons, optimizing horizon-level weights at the asset level and applying sparsity and turnover control for dynamic allocation across assets.
result The medium-term horizon contributes little incremental performance or diversification once short- and long-term components are included.
New framework combines imitation and reinforcement learning for faster, cheaper decision-making.
problem Sequential decision-making with sparse rewards and long time horizons.
method Hierarchical guidance framework integrating imitation and reinforcement learning at different levels.
result Significantly faster and more label-efficient learning compared to existing methods.
We present a continuous-time maximum likelihood estimation methodology for credit rating transition probabilities, taking into account the presence of censored data. We perform rolling estimates of the transition matrices with exponential time weighting with varying horizons and discuss the underlying dynamics of trans…
The study reveals distinct patterns in retail investors' holding periods affecting stock returns.
problem Understanding the impact of retail investors' investment horizons on stock returns.
method Using self-reported holding periods from StockTwits, the study categorizes retail investors into long-horizon and short-horizon groups and analyzes their return patterns.
result Long-horizon retail investors exhibit underreaction to earnings announcements, while short-horizon investors show overreaction.
The capitalization-weighted total relative variation ∑i=1d∫0⋅μi(t)d⟨logμi⟩(t) in an equity market consisting of a fixed number d of assets with capitalization weights μi(⋅) is an observable and nondecreasing function of time. If this observable of the market …
The paper analyzes how sensitive long-term utility of optimal portfolios is to changes in market models.
problem Sensitivity of long-term expected utility of optimal portfolios to market model changes.
method Analyzes utility maximization problem with long-time horizon under incomplete market given by a factor model, focusing on eigenpairs of operators.
result Eigenpairs determine long-term sensitivity of optimal expected utility to market model changes.
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent parameters. To model…
Unified RNN architecture improves multi-time-horizon solar forecasting.
problem Large prediction errors in traditional solar forecasting methods.
method Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for multi-time-horizon solar forecasting.
result Lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to previous methods.
SGM combines deep learning and planning for robust long-horizon tasks.
problem Combining deep learning and planning for robust long-horizon tasks.
method Sparse Graphical Memory (SGM) that stores states and feasible transitions in a sparse memory, aggregating states according to a two-way consistency objective.
result SGM significantly outperforms current state of the art methods on long horizon, sparse-reward visual navigation tasks.
TD-Flow improves long-term predictions in agent learning.
problem Cumulative errors in step-by-step inference of future states.
method Leverages flow-matching techniques and a novel Bellman equation to learn accurate geometric horizon models.
result Significantly reduces errors at long horizons compared to prior methods.
Paper tackles efficient off-policy evaluation in long-horizon settings.
problem Efficient off-policy evaluation in long-horizon settings with diminishing overlap.
method Derives efficiency bounds for OPE under Markovian and time-invariant structures, develops a new DRL estimator.
result DRL estimator provides efficient OPE even with just one dependent trajectory in time-invariant Markov decision processes.
Method solves long-horizon robotic tasks via imitation and reinforcement learning.
problem Long-horizon robotic tasks with complex sequences of actions.
method Two-phase approach: imitation learning followed by reinforcement learning.
result Method can scale to challenging long-horizon tasks.
Long term optimal investment problems are studied in a factor model with matrix valued state variables. Explicit parameter restrictions are obtained under which, for an isoelastic investor, the finite horizon value function and optimal strategy converge to their long-run counterparts as the investment horizon approache…
Paper fine-tunes a language model to predict long-term stock buy signals.
problem Predicting long-term stock price movements with narrative text.
method Fine-tuning a small language model on 10-K reports for buy/sell decisions.
result Buy signals generated from 10-K text are most precise at 6 and 9 months, providing 4.8-9% improvement over random selection.
We consider the portfolio choice problem for a long-run investor in a general continuous semimartingale model. We suggest to use path-wise growth optimality as the decision criterion and encode preferences through restrictions on the class of admissible wealth processes. Specifically, the investor is only interested in…
SMT improves robotic long-horizon tasks by embedding and utilizing past observations.
problem Long-horizon tasks in partially observable environments require effective long-term memory.
method Scene Memory Transformer (SMT) embeds and uses attention to exploit spatio-temporal dependencies.
result SMT outperforms existing policies in visual navigation tasks.
Optimizes investment under uncertain time horizons with non-concave utility.
problem Optimizing investment decisions with non-concave utility and uncertain time horizons.
method Established necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality, suggested recursive procedure for non-concave utility.
result Optimal investment strategies under uncertain time horizons exhibit multimodal distribution, indicating flexibility in switching between local maximizers.
Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in the next time period is a measure of the response function of the market particip…
This paper proves long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
problem Ensuring long-term accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for complex dynamical systems.
method Established conditions for long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned dynamical systems.
result Ensemble Kalman filters maintain small estimation error over long time horizons for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
This work tackles long-term visual planning by goal-conditioned hierarchical predictors.
problem Current learning approaches fail on long-horizon tasks due to lack of goal information and coarse-to-fine planning.
method Formulate goal-conditioned predictors (GCPs) and hierarchical models to predict trajectories between observations.
result GCPs enable effective long-term planning with much longer horizons than before.
Infinite-horizon Gaussian processes reduce computational complexity for long datasets.
problem Cubic computational cost in state dimensionality for Gaussian processes.
method Single-sweep EP inference scheme for GPs with general likelihoods, reducing cost to O(m^2) per data point.
result Reduced computational complexity from cubic to quadratic in state dimensionality.
Long horizon reinforcement learning is as hard as short horizon learning.
problem Understanding the difficulty of long horizon reinforcement learning problems.
method Introduced new concepts: ε-net for optimal policies and Online Trajectory Synthesis algorithm.
result Proved that sample complexity scales logarithmically with the planning horizon, refuting the conjecture.
New algorithm reduces training time for deep learning in financial hedging.
problem Optimal hedging in markets with transaction costs.
method ST-Hedging algorithm combining deep learning and FBSDE solver.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance and scalability.
Algorithm reduces long-term policy regret in ML decision-making.
problem Capturing long-term impacts of ML decisions in communities.
method Modeling communities as arms in a multi-armed bandit problem, defining policy regret as a stronger metric than external regret.
result Algorithm achieves provably sub-linear policy regret for long time horizons.
New control theory shows neural networks can be sparsely active over time.
problem Optimizing neural networks for long-time control with sparsity constraints.
method Proving optimal controls vanish after a positive time and providing a stability estimate.
result Optimal controls for ℓ1-penalized neural ODEs are sparsely active over time. Reward tweaking optimizes behavior for long-term goals by adjusting the reward function.
problem Optimizing behavior for long-term goals in reinforcement learning with unstable long planning horizons.
method Reward tweaking learns a surrogate reward function that induces optimal behavior for the original task.
result Reward tweaking guides agents towards better long-term returns while planning for short horizons.
Financial event studies often misestimate causal effects due to misspecified factor models.
problem Misspecification of factor models in financial event studies leads to inconsistent estimates of causal effects.
method Proposed synthetic control methods to construct replicating portfolios from control securities.
result Synthetic control methods provide more accurate estimates of causal effects in event studies.
We study the portfolio selection problem of a long-run investor who is maximising the asymptotic growth rate of her expected utility. We show that, somewhat surprisingly, it is essentially not affected by introduction of a floor constraint which requires the wealth process to dominate a given benchmark at all times. We…
We compare some methods recently used in the literature to detect the existence of a certain degree of common behavior of stock returns belonging to the same economic sector. Specifically, we discuss methods based on random matrix theory and hierarchical clustering techniques. We apply these methods to a portfolio of s…
New ML model predicts long-term power generation at large areas.
problem Accurate forecasting of long-term power generation from renewable sources.
method Machine learning model applied to aggregated power generation data.
result The model predicts power generation with high accuracy over 15 days.
In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the usual market-risk measure, ie, Value-at-Risk (VaR) at a short-term horizon and …