A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes LSR-IGRU for improved stock trend prediction.
Deep learning model predicts wind-wave relationship.
TimeBridge addresses non-stationarity in long-term time series forecasting.
Behavioral theories posit that investor sentiment exhibits predictive power for stock returns, whereas there is little study have investigated the relationship between the time horizon of the predictive effect of investor sentiment and the firm characteristics. To this end, by using a Granger causality analysis in the …
Combining experimental and observational data for long-term causal effects.
Model combines long-term and short-term memory using conceptors.
In this paper, we introduce a novel method to interpret recurrent neural networks (RNNs), particularly long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) at the cellular level. We propose a systematic pipeline for interpreting individual hidden state dynamics within the network using response characterization methods. The ranked …
Study finds short-term wage increases due to COVID-19, contrary to expectations.
Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.
The paper presents the comparative study of the nature of stock markets in short-term and long-term time scales with and without structural break in the stock data. Structural break point has been identified by applying Zivot and Andrews structural trend break model to break the original time series (TSO) into time ser…
This paper balances short-term and long-term rewards in policy learning.
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
This paper proposes a framework to predict long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in multivariate time series.
Long-term prediction of multivariate time series is still an important but challenging problem. The key to solve this problem is to capture the spatial correlations at the same time, the spatio-temporal relationships at different times and the long-term dependence of the temporal relationships between different series.…
Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in JSE Top 40 forecasting.
The paper analyzes Indian stock sectors using multifractal analysis for long and short-term investment.
Extractive compression is a challenging natural language processing problem. This work contributes by formulating neural extractive compression as a parse tree transduction problem, rather than a sequence transduction task. Motivated by this, we introduce a deep neural model for learning structure-to-substructure tree …
The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.
This paper uses Bayesian models to analyze CTA returns across short and long-term trends.
We employ the thermal optimal path method to explore both the long-term and short-term interaction patterns between the onshore CNY and offshore CNH exchange rates (2012-2015). For the daily data, the CNY and CNH exchange rates show a weak alternate lead-lag structure in most of the time periods. When CNY and CNH displ…
Yield curve modeling is an essential problem in finance. In this work, we explore the use of Bayesian statistical methods in conjunction with Nelson-Siegel model. We present the hierarchical Bayesian model for the parameters of the Nelson-Siegel yield function. We implement the MAP estimates via BFGS algorithm in rstan…
TimeMixer predicts global financial asset volatility, excelling in short-term forecasts.
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which are a powerful scheme for modeling temporal and sequential data need to capture long-term dependencies on datasets and represent them in hidden layers with a powerful model to capture more information from inputs. For modeling long-term dependencies in a dataset, the gating mecha…
What predicts the evolution over time of subjective well-being? We correlate the trends of subjective well-being with the trends of social capital and/or GDP. We find that in the long and medium run social capital largely predicts the trends of subjective wellbeing in our sample of countries. In the short-term this rel…
Combines CNN and Transformer for financial time series forecasting.
Recurrent neural networks (RNN) are at the core of modern automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. In particular, long-short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks have achieved state-of-the-art results in many speech recognition tasks, due to their efficient representation of long and short term dependencies …
Recommender systems objectives can be broadly characterized as modeling user preferences over short-or long-term time horizon. A large body of previous research studied long-term recommendation through dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the historical user-item interactions. A recently introduced session-ba…
EnLSTM network improves log generation from small datasets.
DBNs predict cryptocurrency price directions by uncovering causal relationships.
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM), and Memory Networks which contain memory are popularly used to learn patterns in sequential data. Sequential data has long sequences that hold relationships. RNN can handle long sequences but suffers from the vanishing and exploding gradient probl…
Different investment strategies are adopted in short-term and long-term depending on the time scales, even though time scales are adhoc in nature. Empirical mode decomposition based Hurst exponent analysis and variance technique have been applied to identify the time scales for short-term and long-term investment from …
Digital transformation boosts corporate financial asset allocation, especially short-term.
We analyze the market efficiency of 25 commodity futures across various groups -- metals, energies, softs, grains and other agricultural commodities. To do so, we utilize recently proposed Efficiency Index to find that the most efficient of all the analyzed commodities is heating oil, closely followed by WTI crude oil,…
DeepPPMNet forecasts EMS demand and performs causal analyses for policy-making.
Deep learning predicts baseball home runs with better accuracy.
In this work a relation between a measure of short-term arbitrage in the market and the excess growth of portfolios as a notion of long-term arbitrage is established. The former originates from "Geometric Arbitrage Theory" and the latter from "Stochastic Portfolio Theory". Both aim to describe non-equilibrium effects i…
The major perspective of this paper is to provide more evidence into the empirical determinants of capital structure adjustment in different macroeconomics states by focusing and discussing the relative importance of firm-specific and macroeconomic characteristics from an alternative scope in U.S. This study extends th…
Industrial-scale podcast recommender system optimizes long-term listening journeys.
Bitcoin has emerged as a fascinating phenomenon of the financial markets. Without any central authority issuing the currency, it has been associated with controversy ever since its popularity and public interest reached high levels. Here, we contribute to the discussion by examining potential drivers of Bitcoin prices …
Generating accurate and reliable sales forecasts is crucial in the E-commerce business. The current state-of-the-art techniques are typically univariate methods, which produce forecasts considering only the historical sales data of a single product. However, in a situation where large quantities of related time series …
Estimates long-term effects from short-term experiments and observational data with unobserved confounders.
Much sequential data exhibits highly non-uniform information distribution. This cannot be correctly modeled by traditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). To address that, recent works have extended LSTM by adding more activations between adjacent inputs. However, the approaches often use a fixed depth, which is at the …
Predicts S&P 500 trends using machine learning models.
Proposes a neural LOB model for market-making.
Extended LSTMs improve volatility prediction by 20%.
LSTMs improve demand forecasting for e-grocery products.
Financial trading is at the forefront of time-series analysis, and has grown hand-in-hand with it. The advent of electronic trading has allowed complex machine learning solutions to enter the field of financial trading. Financial markets have both long term and short term signals and thus a good predictive model in fin…