Proves existence of long bond, long forward measure, and long-term factorization in HJM models.
problem Existence of long bond, long forward measure, and long-term factorization in HJM models.
method Function space framework of Filipovic (2001) and sufficient condition on the weight in the Hilbert space of forward rate volatility curves.
result Existence of long bond volatility process, long bond process, and long-term factorization of SDF.
Using elements from the theory of ergodic backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE), we study the behavior of forward entropic risk measures. We provide their general representation results (via both BSDE and convex duality) and examine their behavior for risk positions of long maturities. We show that forward …
The paper factors long-term affine pricing kernels into two components.
problem Understanding long-term behavior of affine pricing kernels.
method Long-term factorization into discounting rate and martingale component.
result Explicit identification of long bond volatility and martingale component volatility.
Proposes a model for long-term electricity contracts with explicit computation and easy calibration.
problem Non-storability and poor liquidity in long-term electricity markets.
method Multi-factor polynomial framework for explicit computation of forwards, risk premium, and correlation.
result Calibrated model provides a risk-minimizing hedge for various time horizons.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the most common nonparametric method for estimating the volatility structure of Gaussian interest rate models. One major difficulty in the estimation of these models is the fact that forward rate curves are not directly observable from the market so that non-trivial observational e…
Max-pooling loss improves LSTM KWS models with lower resource usage.
problem Training efficient LSTM networks for small-footprint keyword spotting.
method Max-pooling loss training guided by cross-entropy initialization, posterior smoothing evaluation.
result Max-pooling loss trained LSTM models outperform baseline DNNs with significant resource savings.
The paper solves investment problems with uncertain factors using game theory.
problem Optimal forward investment in an incomplete market with model uncertainty.
method Combining stochastic differential games and ergodic BSDE approach.
result Representation of robust forward performance processes in factor form.
We show that the martingale component in the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor due to Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) is highly volatile, produces a downward-sloping term structure of bond Sharpe ratios, and implies that the long bond is far from growth optimality. In…
Proposes RMN for learning long-term dependencies in feed-forward networks.
problem Complicated training of deep RNN architectures.
method Residual Memory Neural Network (RMN) with residual and time-delayed connections.
result RMN and BRMN outperform LSTM and BLSTM networks in learning long-term and hierarchical information.
For a commodity spot price dynamics given by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility, we price forwards using a class of pricing measures that simultaneously allow for change of level and speed in the mean reversion of both the price and the volatility. The risk premium i…
In electricity markets, it is sensible to use a two-factor model with mean reversion for spot prices. One of the factors is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process driven by a Brownian motion and accounts for the small variations. The other factor is an OU process driven by a pure jump Lévy process and models the characteri…
FDS tackles long horizon hyperparameter optimization issues.
problem Memory scaling and gradient degradation in long horizon tasks.
method Forward-mode differentiation with sharing (FDS).
result Significantly outperforms greedy gradient-based alternatives.
In the LIBOR market model, forward interest rates are log-normal under their respective forward measures. This note shows that their distributions under the other forward measures of the tenor structure have approximately log-normal tails.
Investment and consumption strategies optimized with uncertain parameters.
problem Investment and consumption preferences in an incomplete financial market with uncertain parameters.
method PDE characterization and semi-explicit saddle-point construction of forward preferences and optimal strategies.
result A specific relationship between initial investment preference and forward consumption preference is necessary.
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
LR models are shown to represent and be represented by LG processes, with key properties facilitating interest rate consistency and long-term risk factorization.
problem Understanding the relationship between linearity-generating and linear-rational models.
method Comparing and contrasting LG and LR models, showing mutual representation and identifying key properties.
result LR models can represent and be represented by LG processes, with specific properties facilitating interest rate consistency and long-term risk factorization.
We develop the HJM framework for forward rates driven by affine processes on the state space of symmetric positive matrices. In this setting we find a representation for the long-term yield and investigate the yield's asymptotic behaviour.
Derives measure changes for pricing midcurve swaptions.
problem Pricing midcurve swaptions in a forward swap annuity measure.
method Derives measure change formulae and constructs linear and exponential terminal swap rate models.
result Captures midcurve swaption correlation skew.
This paper explores the nonconvexity of push-forward constraints in machine learning.
problem The nonconvexity of push-forward constraints in machine learning.
method The paper provides sufficient and necessary conditions for the (non)convexity of push-forward functions and maps.
result Push-forward constraints are generally nonconvex, which limits the design of convex optimization problems in machine learning.
The Dybvig-Ingersoll-Ross (DIR) theorem states that, in arbitrage-free term structure models, long-term yields and forward rates can never fall. We present a refined version of the DIR theorem, where we identify the reciprocal of the maturity date as the maximal order that long-term rates at earlier dates can dominate …
Paper fine-tunes a language model to predict long-term stock buy signals.
problem Predicting long-term stock price movements with narrative text.
method Fine-tuning a small language model on 10-K reports for buy/sell decisions.
result Buy signals generated from 10-K text are most precise at 6 and 9 months, providing 4.8-9% improvement over random selection.
The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is a widely used technique to quantify the long-term correlations of non-stationary time series and the long-range correlations of fractal surfaces, which contains a parameter θ determining the position of the detrending window. We develop multifractal detrending moving a…
FF algorithm uses goodness as a measure of input quality, derived from likelihood-ratio tests.
problem Training each layer locally with a goodness measure.
method FF algorithm uses a likelihood-ratio test to define goodness, which is the sum of squared activations normalized between layers.
result The goodness measure is a sufficient statistic for a likelihood-ratio test, explaining the FF algorithm's performance.
TFiLM expands convolutional models' receptive field with minimal overhead.
problem Capturing long-range dependencies in sequential data.
method A novel architectural component using a recurrent neural network to modulate convolutional model activations.
result TFiLM significantly improves learning speed and accuracy on various tasks.
The main result of this paper that a martingale evolution can be chosen for Libor such that all the Libor interest rates have a common market measure; the drift is fixed such that each Libor has the martingale property. Libor is described using a field theory model, and a common measure is seen to be emerge naturally f…
Solves a long-standing convex geometry problem about mixed volumes.
problem Characterizing the support of mixed area measures.
method Geometric approach to convex bodies in R^n and R^3.
result Resolved one direction of Schneider's conjecture for arbitrary convex bodies.
Turnpike results for risk tolerance in incomplete markets under time-monotone criteria.
problem Turnpike results for risk tolerance in incomplete markets under time-monotone criteria.
method Time-monotone forward performance criteria, analysis of limits, dependence on measure support.
result Temporal and spatial limits do not coincide and depend on measure support.
Designs a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
problem Designing a framework for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
method Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework, affine functions, Girsanov kernel, measure changes.
result Validates measure changes for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
Improves sequence generation by training a backward network.
problem Generating long-term dependencies in sequence models.
method Train a backward recurrent network to predict states of a forward model.
result Achieves 9% relative improvement in speech recognition and significant improvement in caption generation.
A deep learning model improves pedestrian tracking accuracy.
problem Pedestrian tracking accuracy is low, especially with inertial measurement unit.
method Deep learning model using IMU and LIDAR data, attention mechanism.
result Preliminary results show improved accuracy.
Improved genetic algorithm optimizes SVR for robust long-term stock index forecasting.
problem Inaccurate long-term stock price predictions.
method Adaptive Weighted Genetic Algorithm-Optimized SVR (IGA-SVR).
result Reduction in MAPE by 19.87% compared to LSTM and 50.03% compared to OGA-SVR.
Solves new quadratic BSDE systems for market performance analysis.
problem Characterizing forward performance processes in regime switching markets.
method Introduces and solves ergodic BSDE systems in infinite time horizon.
result Connection between ergodic BSDE solutions and long-term growth rates of utility maximization.
The paper addresses pricing interest rate derivatives in markets with volatility uncertainty.
problem Pricing interest rate derivatives under uncertainty about volatility.
method Modeling volatility uncertainty with G-Brownian motion and defining forward sublinear expectation.
result Developed robust pricing formulas for interest rate derivatives.
We derive a forward partial integro-differential equation for prices of call options in a model where the dynamics of the underlying asset under the pricing measure is described by a -possibly discontinuous- semimartingale. A uniqueness theorem is given for the solutions of this equation. This result generalizes Dupire…
Study predicts bond yields using machine learning and ultimate forward rates.
problem Forecasting bond yields using ultimate forward rates.
method Applied de Kort-Vellekooptype methodology for UFR estimation, used linear and nonlinear machine learning techniques.
result Nonlinear machine learning models outperform linear models in bond yield forecasting.
The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.
problem Characterizing forward performance processes in a market with multiple default risks.
method Using Jacod-Pham decomposition and recursive BSDEs, the article constructs a forward utility and proves its existence and uniqueness.
result The article identifies the risk-sensitive long-run growth rate of the optimal wealth process in a stochastic factor model with ergodic dynamics.
We provide a unified framework for modeling LIBOR rates using general semimartingales as driving processes and generic functional forms to describe the evolution of the dynamics. We derive sufficient conditions for the model to be arbitrage-free which are easily verifiable, and for the LIBOR rates to be true martingale…
The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.
problem Constructing or selecting probability measures for asset pricing.
method Historical review of various approaches including state price theory, martingale measures, and modern data-driven methods.
result Modern asset pricing involves constructing, transforming, or selecting probability measures to represent market prices.
New method for dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
problem Dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
method Developed new FBSDE systems and established optimality conditions.
result Established necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality.
RTRL optimizes long sequences without truncation, converging to loss minima.
problem Inaccuracies in TBPTT for long sequences.
method Online optimization with exact gradient calculation.
result RTRL converges to loss minima for a class of RNNs.
Paper solves complex control problems using novel SDEs.
problem Solving stochastic differential games for nonlinear systems.
method Uses Deep Forward-Backward SDEs with neural networks.
result Numerical solution validated on two example systems.
A new diffusion model improves time-series forecasting by preserving seasonal patterns.
problem Improving time-series forecasting accuracy, especially for seasonal data.
method A forward diffusion process that decomposes signals into spectral components, altering only the diffusion process.
result The method maintains high signal-to-noise ratios for dominant frequencies, improving long-term pattern recovery.
For a sequence of nonnegative random variables, we provide simple necessary and sufficient conditions to ensure that each sequence of its forward convex combinations converges in probability to the same limit. These conditions correspond to an essentially measure-free version of the notion of uniform integrability.
In a market of deterministic cash flows, given as an additive, symmetric relation of exchangeability on the finite signed Borel measures on the non-negative real time axis, it is shown that the only arbitrage-free price functional that fulfills some additional mild requirements is the integral of the unit zero-coupon b…
Study on stock returns tail probabilities using stochastic volatility models.
problem Understanding tail probabilities of stock returns in stochastic volatility models.
method Analyzes stochastic differential equations for volatility, applies dimensional analysis, and uses Kolmogorov forward equation.
result Tail probabilities for short-term returns fall off like an inverse cubic and scale with the measurement interval to the power 3/2.
The paper proves a convergence theorem for Wiener measures on holonomy groups.
problem Understanding convergence of Wiener measures on holonomy groups.
method Using stochastic parallel transports along convergent metric connections.
result Proves a convergence theorem for push-forward Wiener measures on holonomy groups.
Study critical exponents on hyperbolic surfaces with long boundaries using Weil-Petersson measures.
problem Analyzing critical exponents on hyperbolic surfaces with long boundaries.
method Using spine graph construction and comparing normalized Weil-Petersson and Kontsevich measures.
result Asymptotic convergence-in-mean result of normalized Weil-Petersson measures to normalized Kontsevich measures.
The paper proves an inequality and describes a curve flow in centro-affine geometry.
problem Proving the isoperimetric inequality in centro-affine plane geometry.
method Investigating a curve flow with centro-affine curvature, expressed as a nonlinear parabolic equation.
result Closed convex curves may converge to ellipses under the described flow.