Unified kernel for prediction markets reduces belief variance forecast error.
problem Lack of standardized tools for quoting and hedging belief risk in prediction markets.
method Logit jump-diffusion model with risk-neutral drift, calibration pipeline, and coherent derivative layer.
result Model reduces forecast error compared to diffusion-only and probability-space baselines.
Logit regularization induces logit clustering, affecting classifier performance.
problem Understanding the mechanism of logit regularization in classification.
method Analysis of logit regularization in linear classification, proving logit clustering leads to Fisher's Linear Discriminant alignment.
result Logit regularization can halve critical sample complexity and induce robust generalization.
Improves adversarial robustness by constraining logits with a bounded function.
problem Improving adversarial robustness in deep learning models.
method Addition of a bounded function before softmax to constrain logits.
result Our method improves adversarial robustness without requiring adversarial training.
Logit-GFN accelerates GFlowNets training by scaling logits based on temperature.
problem Training temperature-conditional GFlowNets is numerically challenging.
method Logit-GFN uses a learned function of temperature to scale policy logits.
result Logit-GFN greatly accelerates GFlowNets training and improves generalization and mode discovery.
Efficiently reconstructs jump-diffusion processes from data using neural networks.
problem Reconstructing jump-diffusion processes from data.
method Temporally decoupled squared Wasserstein distance method using parameterized neural networks.
result Enhanced reconstruction of jump-diffusion processes from data.
A new logit model derived from the Weibull manifold.
problem No potential function on the Weibull manifold.
method Extracted a logit model from the two-parameter Weibull model.
result Found a completely integrable Hamiltonian gradient system on the logit model.
Proposes SOVR loss to improve adversarial robustness by increasing logit margins.
problem Adversarial training's difficulty in robustness against sophisticated attacks.
method Introduces SOVR loss function that switches from cross-entropy to one-vs-the-rest loss for important samples.
result SOVR loss increases logit margins of important samples, improving robustness against Auto-Attack.
We develop a comprehensive mathematical framework for polynomial jump-diffusions in a semimartingale context, which nest affine jump-diffusions and have broad applications in finance. We show that the polynomial property is preserved under polynomial transformations and Lévy time change. We present a generic method for…
Generative classifiers have been shown promising to detect illegal inputs including adversarial examples and out-of-distribution samples. Supervised Deep Infomax~(SDIM) is a scalable end-to-end framework to learn generative classifiers. In this paper, we propose a modification of SDIM termed SDIM-\emph{logit}. Instead …
The paper simplifies complex jump-diffusion markets to complete models.
problem Pricing and hedging derivatives in incomplete jump-diffusion markets.
method Filtration reduction to a complete market, then consistency to original market.
result A unique equivalent martingale measure is obtained for pricing.
In this paper, we develop improved techniques for defending against adversarial examples at scale. First, we implement the state of the art version of adversarial training at unprecedented scale on ImageNet and investigate whether it remains effective in this setting - an important open scientific question (Athalye et …
RL for jump-diffusions applies to financial portfolio selection and option hedging.
problem Optimizing control in systems with jump-diffusion dynamics.
method Entropy-regularized exploratory control with stochastic policies, using existing diffusion algorithms with modifications.
result RL algorithms and parameterizations are invariant to jumps in jump-diffusion systems.
In this paper we outline methodology to efficiently simulate (jump) diffusion bridge sample paths without discretisation error. We achieve this by considering the simulation of conditioned (jump) diffusion bridge sample paths in light of recent work developing a mathematical framework for simulating finite dimensional …
Optimal wealth strategy derived for jump-diffusion models with liabilities.
problem Maximizing utility in jump-diffusion models with random liabilities.
method Forward Backward SDEs system for optimal strategy.
result Explicit results for pure jump model and exponential utilities.
Logit dynamics formula reveals self-regulation in softmax policy gradient methods.
problem Understanding the stability and convergence of softmax policy gradient methods.
method Deriving the exact formula for the L2 norm of the logit update vector.
result Logit update magnitudes are modulated by action probability and policy concentration.
Proposes a convex model for mixed logit to handle individual heterogeneity.
problem Non-convex optimization in mixed logit models for individual heterogeneity.
method Sparse and low-rank decomposition for convex formulation.
result Convex formulation avoids simulation-based approximation and unstable model interpretation.
Recently, Kannan et al. [2018] proposed several logit regularization methods to improve the adversarial robustness of classifiers. We show that the computationally fast methods they propose - Clean Logit Pairing (CLP) and Logit Squeezing (LSQ) - just make the gradient-based optimization problem of crafting adversarial …
Study on hedging risky assets with jumps and costs.
problem Hedging in jump-diffusion models with transaction costs.
method Conditional least square hedging strategy, explicit form for European call options.
result Explicit form of hedging strategy for European call options under transaction costs.
Study on implied volatility of an affine jump-diffusion model.
problem Characterize implied volatility of an affine jump-diffusion model.
method Explicit moment generating function derived from solving ODEs; large deviation principle applied.
result Asymptotic behaviors of implied volatility in large-maturity and large-strike regimes characterized.
Develops efficient methods for approximating densities of financial models with jumps.
problem Approximating densities of affine jump diffusions with state-independent jump intensities.
method Recursive approach for deriving closed-form solutions to moments, constructing density approximations via moment matching.
result Superior computational efficiency and precision in option pricing and simulation compared to existing techniques.
MANO normalizes logits to estimate test accuracy without labels.
problem Estimating test accuracy of OOD samples without labels.
method Applies Lp norm to normalized logits. result Achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures.
New method uses low logit rank to simplify complex language models.
problem Understanding and learning from modern language models.
method Exploiting the low logit rank structure of language models for efficient learning.
result An efficient algorithm for learning low logit rank models from queries.
Logit models are usually applied when studying individual travel behavior, i.e., to predict travel mode choice and to gain behavioral insights on traveler preferences. Recently, some studies have applied machine learning to model travel mode choice and reported higher out-of-sample predictive accuracy than traditional …
Logit distance bounds representational similarity of models.
problem Approximating linear similarity when distributions are close.
method Defined a logit distance and proved its relationship to representational dissimilarity.
result Logit distance bounds representational similarity, providing nontrivial control in practice.
We investigate which jump-diffusion models are convexity preserving. The study of convexity preserving models is motivated by monotonicity results for such models in the volatility and in the jump parameters. We give a necessary condition for convexity to be preserved in several-dimensional jump-diffusion models. This …
Formula for European option pricing under jump diffusion model.
problem Option pricing under complex stochastic processes.
method Infinite series of Black-Scholes terms for Levy-driven processes.
result Series solution converges with a radius of convergence.
Study short maturity Asian options in jump-diffusion models with local volatility.
problem Analyzing Asian options pricing in models with jumps and local volatility.
method Asymptotic analysis for short maturity, considering fixed and floating strike options.
result Explicit results for Asian option prices in several models, including Merton, double-exponential, and Variance Gamma models.
Python package ajdmom simplifies moment formula derivation for jump diffusions.
problem Deriving moment formulae for complex jump diffusion processes.
method Automatically generates closed-form expressions and derivatives for any order of moments.
result Enhances usability and usability of affine jump diffusion models.
We consider neural network training, in applications in which there are many possible classes, but at test-time, the task is a binary classification task of determining whether the given example belongs to a specific class, where the class of interest can be different each time the classifier is applied. For instance, …
LAWN normalizes logits to improve deep network adaptability and generalization.
problem Large logits and weights lead to overfitting in deep networks.
method Logit Attenuating Weight Normalization (LAWN) constrains weight norms in the final sub-network.
result LAWN improves generalization and adaptability of deep networks.
The paper examines conditions for stochastic invariance of cones in SPDEs with jumps.
problem Stochastic invariance of cones in SPDEs with jumps.
method Sufficient conditions for stochastic invariance of closed convex cones in abstract L2-spaces. result Conditions for stochastic invariance of cones are provided and analyzed.
This research improves option pricing models using Heston, GARCH, and jump diffusion models.
problem Inaccurate option pricing due to Black-Scholes assumptions.
method Monte Carlo simulation, GARCH model, Heston model, Merton jump-diffusion model.
result Heston model produces estimates closer to market prices, Merton model performs well for volatile assets, GARCH model improves volatility forecasts.
Paper explores two methods for optimal portfolio selection in financial markets.
problem Optimal portfolio selection for financial markets with jumps.
method Maximum principle and dynamic programming approach.
result Relationship between two methods and their adjoint processes.
In this article, a compact finite difference method is proposed for pricing European and American options under jump-diffusion models. Partial integro-differential equation and linear complementary problem governing European and American options respectively are discretized using Crank-Nicolson Leap-Frog scheme. In pro…
In this short paper, in order to price occupation-time options, such as (double-barrier) step options and quantile options, we derive various joint distributions of a mixed-exponential jump-diffusion process and its occupation times of intervals.
New algorithm reduces switching costs in multinomial logit bandit problems.
problem Minimizing switching costs in multinomial logit bandit problems.
method Proposed AT-DUCB and FH-DUCB algorithms with low assortment switching costs.
result AT-DUCB and FH-DUCB algorithms achieve almost optimal minimax regret with low switching costs.
In this article we extend earlier work on the jump-diffusion risk-sensitive asset management problem [SIAM J. Fin. Math. (2011) 22-54] by allowing jumps in both the factor process and the asset prices, as well as stochastic volatility and investment constraints. In this case, the HJB equation is a partial integro-diffe…
We evaluate the robustness of Adversarial Logit Pairing, a recently proposed defense against adversarial examples. We find that a network trained with Adversarial Logit Pairing achieves 0.6% accuracy in the threat model in which the defense is considered. We provide a brief overview of the defense and the threat models…
In this paper, we are presenting a method for estimation of market parameters modeled by jump diffusion process. The method proposed is based on Gibbs sampler, while the market parameters are the drift, the volatility, the jump intensity and its rate of occurrence. Demonstration on how to use these parameters to estima…
Paper develops models for better HFT and algorithmic trading.
problem Inaccurate LOB dynamics in financial markets.
method Semi-Markov and Hawkes jump-diffusion models for LOB dynamics.
result Improved trading strategies through precise model application.
ELM improves neural model embeddings for long-tail learning.
problem Learning skewed label distributions in neural models.
method Enforces margins in logit space and regularizes embedding distribution.
result ELM reduces generalization gap and tightens tail class embeddings.
Generative model handles varying data dimensions using jump diffusion processes.
problem Handling data of varying dimensionality in generative models.
method Formulated as a jump diffusion process, learning to approximate the process with a novel evidence lower bound.
result Effective sampling of data of varying dimensionality, better compatibility with test-time diffusion guidance imputation tasks.
New deep learning method for option pricing in jump-diffusion models.
problem Option pricing in jump-diffusion models with high-dimensional assets.
method Implicit-explicit minimizing movement time-stepping approach using deep ANNs.
result Consistent and asymptotically correct solutions for large underlyings.
New method distills cloud models into edge-friendly ones.
problem Cloud-to-edge model compression with limited data exchange.
method Two-step workflow of deprivatization and distillation.
result Outperforms previous state-of-the-art approaches on various benchmarks.
Paper tackles long-tailed labels in classification problems.
problem Imbalanced or long-tailed label distribution in real-world classification problems.
method Logit adjustment applied post-hoc or during training to encourage a large relative margin between rare and dominant labels.
result Unified and generalised techniques for coping with long-tailed labels, improving generalisation and performance.
In mathematical finance a popular approach for pricing options under some Levy model is to consider underlying that follows a Poisson jump diffusion process. As it is well known this results in a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) that usually does not allow an analytical solution while numerical solution bri…
Deep learning classifiers are known to be vulnerable to adversarial examples. A recent paper presented at ICML 2019 proposed a statistical test detection method based on the observation that logits of noisy adversarial examples are biased toward the true class. The method is evaluated on CIFAR-10 dataset and is shown t…
Study on short-term behavior of ATM-IV for jump-diffusion model.
problem Analyzing the short-time behavior of ATM-IV for a specific stochastic volatility model.
method Used Malliavin Calculus techniques to derive expressions for ATM-IV level and skew.
result Short-time behavior of ATM-IV level is consistent for all pure-jump Lévy processes.