Improved estimation for imbalanced data using log odds correction and optimal sampling.
problem Parameter estimation with nonuniform negative sampling for imbalanced data.
method Derive asymptotic distribution of IPW estimator, derive optimal sampling probability, propose likelihood-based estimator.
result Improved estimator has the smallest asymptotic variance.
Proposes AAA for efficient association estimation with confounders.
problem Summarizing log odds ratio as a function of confounders.
method Develops efficient DML estimators for AAA.
result Demonstrates practicality and effectiveness of AAA estimators.
This note considers softmax parameter estimation when little/no labeled training data is available, but a priori information about the relative geometry of class label log-odds boundaries is available. It is shown that `data-free' softmax model synthesis corresponds to solving a linear system of parameter equations, wh…
Evaluates local explanations using white-box models and log odds ratios.
problem Costly and subjective evaluation of local explanations.
method Benchmarking explanation techniques using log odds ratios.
result Explanation techniques' performance depends on model, dataset, data point, and normalization.
The paper explores how Shapley value for a feature can vary based on model outcomes and feature distribution.
problem The uniqueness of Shapley value in explaining model predictions.
method Analyzes the relationship between feature distribution and Shapley value, and compares Shapley values for different model outcomes.
result Shapley value for a feature depends on more than just its mean and can vary significantly based on model outcome.
Proposes MCLLO for assessing and recalibrating multiclass probability predictions.
problem Limited multicategory recalibration methods for assessing and comparing model calibration.
method MCLLO recalibration method that assesses calibration without model access and is easy to interpret.
result MCLLO outperforms other methods in simulations and real-world case studies.
A statistical test detects adversarial examples with minimal input corruption.
problem Detecting adversarial examples in white-box attacks.
method Randomly corrupt inputs to compute test statistics that exploit adversarial anomalies.
result The test can correct predictions for adversarial attacks with high accuracy.
Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal Élő update still remains, after more than 50 years, a valuable baseline which is difficult to…
In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical techniques. Specific attention is paid to the Laplace approximation, variational Ba…
Thompson Sampling achieves independent regret bounds for logistic bandits.
problem Achieving optimal regret bounds for logistic bandits with binary rewards.
method Thompson Sampling applied to logistic bandits with binary rewards.
result Thompson Sampling achieves i l d e O ( d T ) ilde{O}(d\sqrt{T}) i l d e O ( d T ) regret bound for identical action and coefficient sets. The paper proposes a new method for comparing logistic regression models across different populations.
problem Comparing logistic regression models across sub-populations can lead to misleading results.
method Develops a cascading set of equivalence tests for logistic regression models, addressing coding, predictions, and overall accuracy.
result Equivalence testing incentivizes accurate inference and avoids perverse incentives from significance tests.
Algorithm learns expert weights to minimize regret in adversarial setting.
problem Learning to aggregate expert forecasts with no-regret guarantee in adversarial conditions.
method Online mirror descent algorithm for logarithmic pooling of expert forecasts.
result Achieves O ( T log T ) O(\sqrt{T} \log T) O ( T log T ) expected regret compared to best weights. New statistical model improves protein alignment accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in protein sequence alignment.
method Inferred a time-dependent Markov process from protein sequences.
result Developed a new optimal matrix (MMLSUM) for protein alignment.
New method improves LLM judge accuracy by accounting for dependencies in aggregated binary labels.
problem Classical label aggregation methods fail to account for dependencies among LLM judges, leading to miscalibrated predictions.
method Dependence-aware models based on Ising graphical models and latent factors.
result The proposed method outperforms classical methods on real-world datasets, reducing excess risk.
A new method estimates mutual information using neural classifiers.
problem Estimating mutual information for high-dimensional data is challenging.
method Trains a classifier to estimate joint distribution probability.
result Demonstrates high accuracy and reduces variance compared to variational methods.
Gradient descent biases linear models in next-token prediction towards data entropy.
problem Optimization bias in next-token prediction models.
method Analysis of gradient descent on linear models with sparse conditional distributions.
result Gradient descent selects parameters that equate token logits differences to log-odds in the data subspace.
Paper certifies intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
problem Certifying intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
method Exploits likelihood ordering to induce halfspace constraints, enabling adaptive geometric partitioning and computable bounds on p-values.
result Efficient and provably sound algorithm for certifying intersection, disjointness, or indeterminate result.
EBBS integrates expert assessments into MIO best-subsets problem.
problem Identifying relevant features in statistical models.
method Expert-implied Bayesian approach using MIO.
result Reduces to classical best-subsets when experts are silent.
EFDA extends LDA to non-Gaussian models using exponential families.
problem Classifying non-Gaussian data with LDA's limitations.
method EFDA uses exponential families to derive closed-form estimators for natural parameters and a linear decision rule.
result EFDA matches LDA's accuracy while reducing ECE by 2-6x, proving asymptotic calibration and efficiency.
This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and identifiability in prediction market outcomes from price-volume histories.
method Formulates prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems, introduces a log-odds observation model, and derives posterior uncertainty quantification and identifiability criteria.
result Explicit diagnostics for informative and stable inference regimes, and validation through synthetic data experiments.