Proposes AAA for efficient association estimation with confounders.
problem Summarizing log odds ratio as a function of confounders.
method Develops efficient DML estimators for AAA.
result Demonstrates practicality and effectiveness of AAA estimators.
Evaluates local explanations using white-box models and log odds ratios.
problem Costly and subjective evaluation of local explanations.
method Benchmarking explanation techniques using log odds ratios.
result Explanation techniques' performance depends on model, dataset, data point, and normalization.
New method uses geometric mean to avoid non-collapsibility in case-control studies.
problem Non-collapsibility of odds ratio under outcome-dependent sampling.
method Proposes geometric mean aggregation to avoid non-collapsibility and provides estimation and inference methods.
result Geometric odds ratio is collapsible under outcome-dependent sampling.
Proposes MCLLO for assessing and recalibrating multiclass probability predictions.
problem Limited multicategory recalibration methods for assessing and comparing model calibration.
method MCLLO recalibration method that assesses calibration without model access and is easy to interpret.
result MCLLO outperforms other methods in simulations and real-world case studies.
The conformal anomalies and functional determinants of the Branson--GJMS operators, P_{2k}, on the d-dimensional sphere are evaluated in explicit terms for any d and k such that k < d/2+1 (if d is even). The determinants are given in terms of multiple gamma functions and a rational multiplicative anomaly, which vanishe…
Estimates price sensitivity from transaction data using a novel odds ratio method.
problem Estimate price sensitivity from transaction-level data with partially observed treatment assignments.
method Recursive partitioning procedure with adversarial imputation for robust estimation.
result Validated on synthetic data and applied to three case studies, demonstrating heterogeneity in treatment effects.
Q-Learner estimates ratio-based treatment effects without imposing parametric structures.
problem Estimating treatment effects as ratios in non-linear settings.
method Decomposes ratio-CATE into two classification tasks, using doubly robust augmentations.
result Q-Learner outperforms other methods in low-conversion and observational data settings.
A new thompson sampling method controls for time-varying effects.
problem Dynamic experiments in online services with time-varying effects.
method Odds-ratio Thompson Sampling
result The proposed method works robust to time-varying effects.
On each nonorientable surface of odd genus g≥5, we give a mapping class whose dilatation on an invariant subsurface is the golden ratio.
A theory of cellwise contamination for compositional data using log-ratios.
problem Contamination in compositional data analysis.
method Develops a theory combining contamination model and propagation theorem.
result Reduction in cellwise breakdown value by (D−1)/D for certain estimators. Improved estimation for imbalanced data using log odds correction and optimal sampling.
problem Parameter estimation with nonuniform negative sampling for imbalanced data.
method Derive asymptotic distribution of IPW estimator, derive optimal sampling probability, propose likelihood-based estimator.
result Improved estimator has the smallest asymptotic variance.
Study detects signals in spiked Wigner models using log likelihood ratio.
problem Detecting signals in rank-one spiked Wigner models with non-Gaussian noise.
method Proved asymptotic normality of log likelihood ratio and computed error thresholds.
result Optimal signal-to-noise ratio threshold for reliable detection.
In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical techniques. Specific attention is paid to the Laplace approximation, variational Ba…
New methods for estimating conditional odds and risk ratios improve treatment decision rules.
problem Estimation of conditional odds and risk ratios lags behind conditional average treatment effects.
method Proposed novel estimators based on doubly robust transformations and orthogonal risk functions.
result Proposed estimators significantly reduce bias and mean squared error in complex settings.
A novel method for learning DAGs from positive-valued data.
problem Causal discovery from observational data of positive-valued variables.
method Hybrid Moment-Ratio Scoring (H-MRS) algorithm combining moment-based scoring and log-scale regression.
result H-MRS integrates log-scale Ridge regression for moment-ratio estimation with a greedy ordering procedure based on raw-scale moment ratios, followed by Elastic Net-based parent selection.
The law of total probability may be deployed in binary classification exercises to estimate the unconditional class probabilities if the class proportions in the training set are not representative of the population class proportions. We argue that this is not a conceptually sound approach and suggest an alternative ba…
Prognostic scores improve logistic regression analysis in RCTs with binary outcomes.
problem Non-collapsibility in logistic regression analysis of RCTs with binary endpoints.
method Prognostic score adjustment using AI predictions to address non-collapsibility.
result Prognostic score adjustment increases power or reduces sample size for estimating conditional odds ratios.
This note considers softmax parameter estimation when little/no labeled training data is available, but a priori information about the relative geometry of class label log-odds boundaries is available. It is shown that `data-free' softmax model synthesis corresponds to solving a linear system of parameter equations, wh…
In this work, a deep learning-based method for log-likelihood ratio (LLR) lossy compression and quantization is proposed, with emphasis on a single-input single-output uncorrelated fading communication setting. A deep autoencoder network is trained to compress, quantize and reconstruct the bit log-likelihood ratios cor…
New method for robust distribution alignment using log-likelihood ratio and normalizing flows.
problem Distribution alignment challenges in deep learning.
method Log-likelihood ratio statistic and normalizing flows.
result Minimizing the proposed objective yields robust domain alignment.
The study finds the minimum average area ratio on hyperbolic manifolds and its relation to scalar curvature.
problem Finding the minimum average area ratio on hyperbolic manifolds.
method Analyzing the average area ratio and normalized total scalar curvature for hyperbolic n-manifolds.
result The average area ratio attains a local minimum of 1 at the hyperbolic metric.
Smart Bayes integrates generative and discriminative features for improved classification.
problem Improving classification performance by combining generative and discriminative modeling.
method Integrates generative likelihood-ratio features into a logistic-regression-style classifier.
result Often outperforms logistic regression and Naive Bayes in simulations and real data.
The main result of this paper is: Given any constant C, there is (ε,k,L) such that if a complete, orientable, noncompact odd-dimensional manifold with bounded positive sectional curvature contains a (ε,k,L)-neck, then the asymptotic scalar curvature ratio is bigger or equal to C. As a application we proved that the…
The paper explores how Shapley value for a feature can vary based on model outcomes and feature distribution.
problem The uniqueness of Shapley value in explaining model predictions.
method Analyzes the relationship between feature distribution and Shapley value, and compares Shapley values for different model outcomes.
result Shapley value for a feature depends on more than just its mean and can vary significantly based on model outcome.
Adapts Altman's model to compositional data for bankruptcy prediction.
problem Predicting business default using standard financial ratios has issues.
method Uses compositional data methodology with log-ratios and machine learning.
result Compositional methods improve predictive performance, especially random forests.
New methods for identifying and estimating missing data under complex mechanisms.
problem Missing data mechanisms dependent on missing values themselves.
method Developed a new MNAR model and proposed semiparametric estimation methods.
result Established sufficient conditions for identifying complete-data distribution and missingness mechanism.
The CAP slope is Bayes' theorem in cumulative coordinates, unlocking the weight of evidence, Somers' D, and Gini coefficient.
problem Calibration and weight of evidence
method Identifying the CAP slope as Bayes' theorem
result Revealing the CAP slope as Bayes' theorem
A3T-GCN model forecasts FTSE100 stock prices using technical indicators and financial ratios.
problem Forecasting closing stock prices of FTSE100 constituents.
method Hybrid A3T-GCN architecture using technical indicators, financial ratios, and sector correlations.
result A3T-GCN model improves prediction accuracy with annualized log-returns and shorter sequence lengths.
The gain-loss ratio is known to enjoy very good properties from a normative point of view. As a confirmation, we show that the best market gain-loss ratio in the presence of a random endowment is an acceptability index and we provide its dual representation for general probability spaces. However, the gain-loss ratio w…
FORE evaluates occupancy ratios without requiring Bellman completeness.
problem Offline reinforcement learning occupancy ratio estimation.
method Fitted occupancy-ratio evaluation (FORE) using adjoint Bellman recursion.
result FORE achieves convergence in KL without Bellman completeness.
In deep neural network, the cross-entropy loss function is commonly used for classification. Minimizing cross-entropy is equivalent to maximizing likelihood under assumptions of uniform feature and class distributions. It belongs to generative training criteria which does not directly discriminate correct class from co…
New ANN method for imputing rounded zeros in compositional data.
problem Imputing missing values in compositional data with rounded zeros.
method Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for imputation of compositional data.
result ANNs are competitive or better than conventional methods for imputing rounded zeros.
This paper addresses privacy concerns in ratio statistics using differential privacy.
problem Privacy concerns in ratio statistics across machine learning areas.
method Develops a simple algorithm for differentially private ratio statistics, proving consistency and constructing confidence intervals.
result A simple algorithm can provide excellent privacy, sample accuracy, and bias properties in ratio statistics.
We consider the standard contact structure on the supercircle, S^{1|1}, and the supergroups E(1|1), Aff(1|1) and SpO(2|1) of contactomorphisms, defining the Euclidean, affine and projective geometry respectively. Using the new notion of (p|q)-transitivity, we construct in synthetic fashion even and odd invariants chara…
Estimates Gaussian location model with ridge regularization, comparing variational and spectral methods.
problem Estimating parameters in Gaussian location model with regularization.
method Ridge-regularized log-density-ratio estimation, variational and spectral approaches.
result Regularized variational estimator has lower risk with many observations, spectral estimator with fewer observations.
We investigate conditions under which test statistics exist that can reliably detect examples, which have been adversarially manipulated in a white-box attack. These statistics can be easily computed and calibrated by randomly corrupting inputs. They exploit certain anomalies that adversarial attacks introduce, in part…
Equity-Directed Bootstrapping improves model performance across groups in imbalanced datasets.
problem Improving model performance across different groups in imbalanced datasets.
method Equity-Directed Bootstrapping to balance training data with respect to both labels and group identity.
result The equity-directed bootstrap brings test set sensitivities and specificities closer to satisfying the equal odds criterion.
We show meromorphic extension and analyze the divisors of a Selberg zeta function of odd type ZΓ,Σo(λ) associated to the spinor bundle Σ on odd dimensional convex co-compact hyperbolic manifolds $X:=Γ\backslash\hh^{2n+1}$. We define a natural eta invariant η(D) associated to the Dirac operator D on $X…
SPRT-TANDEM improves sequential classification accuracy with fewer samples.
problem Efficiently classifying sequential data with high accuracy and low sampling cost.
method Deep neural network-based SPRT algorithm that estimates log-likelihood ratio of two hypotheses.
result SPRT-TANDEM achieves statistically significantly better classification accuracy than other classifiers with fewer samples.
In this note, we study the relationship between the variational gap and the variance of the (log) likelihood ratio. We show that the gap can be upper bounded by some form of dispersion measure of the likelihood ratio, which suggests the bias of variational inference can be reduced by making the distribution of the like…
Proposes CLUB for reliable MI minimization in high dimensions.
problem Estimating and minimizing mutual information in high-dimensional spaces.
method Contrastive Log-ratio Upper Bound (CLUB) for MI minimization.
result CLUB provides reliable estimation of mutual information.
We discuss - in what is intended to be a pedagogical fashion - a criterion, which is a lower bound on a certain ratio, for when a stock (or a similar instrument) is not a good investment in the long term, which can happen even if the expected return is positive. The root cause is that prices are positive and have skewe…
Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures for predictability. In this paper we propose novel empirical likelihood methods …
This paper extends compositional data analysis using graph signal processing.
problem Traditional log-ratios between all variables are not suitable for specific variable relationships.
method Linking compositional data analysis with graph signal processing, it considers only selected log-ratios.
result The approach retains desirable properties of scale invariance and compositional coherence.
A new algorithm detects changes in data with constant cost per iteration.
problem Detecting changes in data with low computational cost.
method Adapting pruning and maximisation techniques from Gaussian data to exponential family models.
result The algorithm can detect changes in a wide range of models with a constant per-iteration cost.
Let (M,g) be a closed, oriented, Riemannian manifold of dimension m. We call a systole a shortest non-contractible loop in (M,g) and denote by sys(M,g) its length. Let SR(M,g)=vol(M,g)sys(M,g)m be the systolic ratio of (M,g). Denote by SR(k) the supremum of SR(S,g) among the surfaces of fixe…
Paper uses Transformers to predict intraday volume ratio with high accuracy.
problem Accurate prediction of intraday volume ratio for VWAP strategies.
method Transformer architecture with log-normal transformation and external features.
result Probabilistic forecasting captures mean and standard deviation of volume ratios.
In this paper, we investigate the effect of machine learning based anonymization on anomalous subgroup preservation. In particular, we train a binary classifier to discover the most anomalous subgroup in a dataset by maximizing the bias between the group's predicted odds ratio from the model and observed odds ratio fro…