A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper develops predictors for functional data on manifolds.
LESS combines local predictors for subsets to learn from heterogeneous input-output pairs.
We provide a new approach to training neural models to exhibit transparency in a well-defined, functional manner. Our approach naturally operates over structured data and tailors the predictor, functionally, towards a chosen family of (local) witnesses. The estimation problem is setup as a co-operative game between an …
Optimizing proper loss yields calibrated models under specific conditions.
Novel strategy for federated learning with privacy-preserving predictors and nonvacuous generalization bounds.
We study online linear regression problems in a distributed setting, where the data is spread over a network. In each round, each network node proposes a linear predictor, with the objective of fitting the \emph{network-wide} data. It then updates its predictor for the next round according to the received local feedbac…
Study tail risk in high-frequency finance using -regularized regression.
Study fairness in ordinal regression using threshold models.
We analyze the (unconditional) distribution of a linear predictor that is constructed after a data-driven model selection step in a linear regression model. First, we derive the exact finite-sample cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the linear predictor, and a simple approximation to this (complicated) cdf. We t…
We analyze the local Rademacher complexity of empirical risk minimization (ERM)-based multi-label learning algorithms, and in doing so propose a new algorithm for multi-label learning. Rather than using the trace norm to regularize the multi-label predictor, we instead minimize the tail sum of the singular values of th…
Proposes efficient calibration for indoor localization models.
Paper discusses binary classification with metric space predictors, privacy constraints, and convergence rates.
Introduces PAC-Bayes bounds for understanding learning procedures.
Recent results in the literature indicate that a residual network (ResNet) composed of a single residual block outperforms linear predictors, in the sense that all local minima in its optimization landscape are at least as good as the best linear predictor. However, these results are limited to a single residual block …
New method converts LVAs into linear projections for better understanding of complex models.
Interpretability has arisen as a key desideratum of machine learning models alongside performance. Approaches so far have been primarily concerned with fixed dimensional inputs emphasizing feature relevance or selection. In contrast, we focus on temporal modeling and the problem of tailoring the predictor, functionally…
A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze p…
In this work, we study the problem of aggregating a finite number of predictors for nonstationary sub-linear processes. We provide oracle inequalities relying essentially on three ingredients: (1) a uniform bound of the norm of the time varying sub-linear coefficients, (2) a Lipschitz assumption on the predict…
Proposes a model to interpret complex ML algorithms.
New method selects sparse predictors in large LMMs.
Proposes a tool to contrast global vs personalized models in clinical prediction.
New method uses machine learning to improve statistical inference.
Supervised Machine Learning (SML) algorithms such as Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Neural Networks have become popular in recent years due to their increased predictive performance over traditional statistical methods. This is especially true with large data sets (millions or more observations and hundreds to t…
New bounds show linear predictors rarely overfit with certain optimization methods.
DFNNs predict non-Euclidean responses from Euclidean predictors.
A residual network (or ResNet) is a standard deep neural net architecture, with state-of-the-art performance across numerous applications. The main premise of ResNets is that they allow the training of each layer to focus on fitting just the residual of the previous layer's output and the target output. Thus, we should…
We study large-scale spatial systems that contain exogenous variables, e.g. environmental factors that are significant predictors in spatial processes. Building predictive models for such processes is challenging because the large numbers of observations present makes it inefficient to apply full Kriging. In order to r…
New minimax optimal learner for robust predictors against adversarial examples.
The huge amount of available data nowadays is a challenge for kernel-based machine learning algorithms like SVMs with respect to runtime and storage capacities. Local approaches might help to relieve these issues and to improve statistical accuracy. It has already been shown that these local approaches are consistent a…
The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single predictor that performs asymptotically as well as the best predictor in C, on any data.…
SOCP uses SOM to find groups and local calibration buffers for better regional coverage.
New algorithm reduces sample complexity for multi-task bandits.
New theory explains how noisy, high-dimensional data can still lead to robust predictions.
New bounds explain deterministic non-smooth deep nets without large Lipschitz constants.
PARC uses piecewise linear predictors for regression and classification.
We present local ensembles, a method for detecting underspecification -- when many possible predictors are consistent with the training data and model class -- at test time in a pre-trained model. Our method uses local second-order information to approximate the variance of predictions across an ensemble of models from…
This paper proposes a method to reduce complexity in GLMs with categorical predictors.
GRASP simplifies Bayesian regression with grouped predictors using an adaptive NBP prior.
This work analyzes fairness-accuracy trade-offs using causal methods.
The article compares predictor importance in classification problems with categorical outcomes.
Paper proposes a sparse synthetic control method to select important predictors.
We study the problem of distributed multi-task learning with shared representation, where each machine aims to learn a separate, but related, task in an unknown shared low-dimensional subspaces, i.e. when the predictor matrix has low rank. We consider a setting where each task is handled by a different machine, with sa…
Functional PLS improves prediction and inference for scalar responses from functional predictors.
This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or tertiary predictors and allows the number of predictors to exceed the size of the sa…
WeakNAS uses a set of weaker predictors to find top architectures with fewer samples.
Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.
We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we develop a localized spatio-temporal covariance model of the process that can capture s…
This paper continues study, both theoretical and empirical, of the method of Venn prediction, concentrating on binary prediction problems. Venn predictors produce probability-type predictions for the labels of test objects which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under the standard assumption that the observations ar…