A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We introduce the Locally Linear Latent Variable Model (LL-LVM), a probabilistic model for non-linear manifold discovery that describes a joint distribution over observations, their manifold coordinates and locally linear maps conditioned on a set of neighbourhood relationships. The model allows straightforward variatio…
The network Lasso (nLasso) has been proposed recently as an efficient learning algorithm for massive networked data sets (big data over networks). It extends the well-known least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) from learning sparse (generalized) linear models to network models. Efficient implementatio…
Locally adaptive interpretable regression improves linear regression's predictability.
problem Linear regression's predictability is limited; it lacks adaptability.
method Locally adaptive interpretable regression (LoAIR) uses neural networks to predict percentile of a Gaussian distribution for regression coefficients.
result LoAIR achieves comparable or better predictive performance than state-of-the-art baselines.
Existing works on "black-box" model interpretation use local-linear approximations to explain the predictions made for each data instance in terms of the importance assigned to the different features for arriving at the prediction. These works provide instancewise explanations and thus give a local view of the model. T…
For their ability to capture non-linearities in the data and to scale to large training sets, local Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have received a special attention during the past decade. In this paper, we introduce a new local SVM method, called L3-SVMs, which clusters the input space, carries out dimensionality r…
In this paper, we propose and study random maxout features, which are constructed by first projecting the input data onto sets of randomly generated vectors with Gaussian elements, and then outputing the maximum projection value for each set. We show that the resulting random feature map, when used in conjunction with …
We introduce Embed to Control (E2C), a method for model learning and control of non-linear dynamical systems from raw pixel images. E2C consists of a deep generative model, belonging to the family of variational autoencoders, that learns to generate image trajectories from a latent space in which the dynamics is constr…
This paper describes another extension of the Local Variance Gamma model originally proposed by P. Carr in 2008, and then further elaborated on by Carr and Nadtochiy, 2017 (CN2017), and Carr and Itkin, 2018 (CI2018). As compared with the latest version of the model developed in CI2018 and called the ELVG (the Expanded …
This paper introduces a new method for semi-supervised learning on high dimensional nonlinear manifolds, which includes a phase of unsupervised basis learning and a phase of supervised function learning. The learned bases provide a set of anchor points to form a local coordinate system, such that each data point x on…
The paper proposes an expanded version of the Local Variance Gamma model of Carr and Nadtochiy by adding drift to the governing underlying process. Still in this new model it is possible to derive an ordinary differential equation for the option price which plays a role of Dupire's equation for the standard local volat…
Discriminative latent-variable models are typically learned using EM or gradient-based optimization, which suffer from local optima. In this paper, we develop a new computationally efficient and provably consistent estimator for a mixture of linear regressions, a simple instance of a discriminative latent-variable mode…
In deep learning, \textit{depth}, as well as \textit{nonlinearity}, create non-convex loss surfaces. Then, does depth alone create bad local minima? In this paper, we prove that without nonlinearity, depth alone does not create bad local minima, although it induces non-convex loss surface. Using this insight, we greatl…
A major problem for the learning of Bayesian networks (BNs) is the exponential number of parameters needed for conditional probability tables. Recent research reduces this complexity by modeling local structure in the probability tables. We examine the use of log-linear local models. While log-linear models in this con…
In this paper we describe the local Ricci and Bianchi identities for an h-normal N-linear connection DΓ(N) on the dual 1-jet space J^{1*}(T,M). To reach this aim, we firstly give the expressions of the local distinguished (d-) adapted components of torsion and curvature tensors produced by DΓ(N), and then we analyze th…
We present ARU, an Adaptive Recurrent Unit for streaming adaptation of deep globally trained time-series forecasting models. The ARU combines the advantages of learning complex data transformations across multiple time series from deep global models, with per-series localization offered by closed-form linear models. Un…
Tree-based machine learning models such as random forests, decision trees, and gradient boosted trees are the most popular non-linear predictive models used in practice today, yet comparatively little attention has been paid to explaining their predictions. Here we significantly improve the interpretability of tree-bas…
Calibration of stochastic local volatility (SLV) models to their underlying local volatility model is often performed by numerically solving a two-dimensional non-linear forward Kolmogorov equation. We propose a novel finite volume (FV) discretization in the numerical solution of general 1D and 2D forward Kolmogorov eq…