Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

243487730973 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for live performance

Backtests of structured strategies lose much of their predictive power in live trading.

problem Uncertainty in how marketed backtests predict live performance of structured strategies.
method Analysis of 1,726 structured strategies from ten global institutions.
result Raw backtests have limited portability into live trading and deteriorate sharply.

BiCB combines traffic prediction and bidding optimization for live advertising.

problem Real-time bidding in live advertising with unknown future traffic.
method Binary Constrained Bidding (BiCB) that merges mathematical analysis and statistical traffic estimation.
result BiCB achieves good approximation to optimal bidding results with low complexity.

AI-Trader benchmarks LLMs in live financial markets, revealing poor trading performance.

problem Challenges in real-time financial decision-making by autonomous agents.
method Fully automated, live evaluation benchmark with minimal human intervention.
result General intelligence does not translate to effective trading, highlighting limitations.

Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.

problem Long-term impacts of global economic changes on living conditions.
method Machine learning framework combining socio-economic factors.
result Developed a practical tool for policymakers to identify areas needing improvement.

Neural networks have shown great potential in many applications like speech recognition, drug discovery, image classification, and object detection. Neural network models are inspired by biological neural networks, but they are optimized to perform machine learning tasks on digital computers. The proposed work explores…

2017-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

PolyBench benchmarks LLMs on real market data, revealing significant performance gaps.

problem Benchmarking LLMs for real-world event prediction from live market signals.
method Multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket, evaluating 7 LLMs under identical market states.
result Only two models achieve positive financial returns, highlighting the gap between fluency and probabilistic reasoning.

YC Bench forecasts startup success in Y Combinator batches with a short-term metric.

problem Difficult forecasting of startup success due to sparse meaningful outcomes and slow evaluation cycles.
method Developed a live benchmark using publicly available traction signals and web visibility metrics.
result Revealed 6 out of 11 top performers at YC Demo Day with a simple proxy for prior brand recognition.

Model optimal growth strategy in a market with short-lived assets.

problem Investment market with short-lived assets and endogenous prices.
method Formulate stochastic equation for wealth processes and prove existence of optimal strategy.
result Existence of a submartingale strategy ensuring investor's wealth growth asymptotically.

PriceSeer benchmarks LLMs in real-time stock prediction.

problem Evaluating LLMs' stock prediction accuracy and robustness.
method Real-time benchmark with 110 U.S. stocks, internal and external information expansion.
result LLMs perform suboptimally in long-term predictions due to fake news and specific industries.

Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.

problem Understanding consumer demand during livestreaming lifecycle.
method Examined consumer demand for live events and recorded versions using data from a livestreaming platform.
result Demand is more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.

Proposes GDTW for aligning time series on different, incomparable spaces.

problem Dynamic time warping requires comparable spaces, but time series can live on different, incomparable spaces.
method Gromov dynamic time warping (GDTW) considers intra-relational geometry to avoid comparability requirements.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of GDTW in aligning, combining, and comparing time series on incomparable spaces.

New method classifies manifold-valued data using Riemannian geometry.

problem Classifying data on curved Riemannian manifolds.
method Probabilistic Learning Vector Quantization on Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices.
result The method outperforms traditional Euclidean methods on manifold-valued data.

Complex models are commonly used in predictive modeling. In this paper we present R packages that can be used to explain predictions from complex black box models and attribute parts of these predictions to input features. We introduce two new approaches and corresponding packages for such attribution, namely live and …

2018-04-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Continuous monitoring of cardiac health under free living condition is crucial to provide effective care for patients undergoing post operative recovery and individuals with high cardiac risk like the elderly. Capacitive Electrocardiogram (cECG) is one such technology which allows comfortable and long term monitoring t…

2019-03-29abs ↗pdf ↗

A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze p…

2013-10-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Co-TSFA improves time series forecasting by distinguishing between short-lived and persistent anomalies.

problem Standard forecasting models fail to distinguish between short-lived and persistent anomalies, leading to overreaction or underreaction.
method Co-TSFA learns to ignore forecast-irrelevant anomalies and respond to forecast-relevant ones through input-only and input-output augmentations and a latent-output alignment loss.
result Co-TSFA improves performance under anomalous conditions while maintaining accuracy on normal data.

We propose a metric, Layer Saturation, defined as the proportion of the number of eigenvalues needed to explain 99% of the variance of the latent representations, for analyzing the learned representations of neural network layers. Saturation is based on spectral analysis and can be computed efficiently, making live ana…

2019-07-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Computing the medoid of a large number of points in high-dimensional space is an increasingly common operation in many data science problems. We present an algorithm Med-dit which uses O(n log n) distance evaluations to compute the medoid with high probability. Med-dit is based on a connection with the multi-armed band…

2017-11-02abs ↗pdf ↗

A new model clusters networks with community-specific submanifold structures.

problem Clustering networks with community-specific submanifold structures.
method Latent Structure Block Models (LSBM) for Bayesian spectral graph clustering.
result LSBM correctly recovers underlying communities in one-dimensional manifold structures.

A new policy minimizes loss in high-volume, short-lived multi-armed bandit problems.

problem Minimizing loss in high-volume, short-lived multi-armed bandit problems.
method Proposed a Bayesian policy to minimize loss over a large class of prior distributions.
result Our policy outperforms existing methods by 4.32% in total duration and 7.48% in total number of click-throughs.

Two-cycle GEILA equilibria are OLG equilibria and vice versa, with applications to indeterminacy and bubbles.

problem Relationship between GEILA and OLG models.
method Proof of equilibrium equivalence and application to indeterminacy and bubbles.
result GEILA and OLG models are equivalent under certain conditions.

Human activity recognition using smart home sensors is one of the bases of ubiquitous computing in smart environments and a topic undergoing intense research in the field of ambient assisted living. The increasingly large amount of data sets calls for machine learning methods. In this paper, we introduce a deep learnin…

2018-04-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.

problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.

Deep learning and genetic algorithms speed up cosmological Bayesian inference.

problem Substantial computational demands in Bayesian inference for cosmological parameter estimation.
method Deep learning using feedforward neural networks to approximate likelihood functions dynamically, optimized with genetic algorithms.
result Significant speed-up in Bayesian inference process for cosmological models and datasets.

By using the Weil-Gel'fand-Zak transform of Faddeev's quantum dilogarithm, we propose a new state-integral model for the Teichmüller TQFT, where the circle valued state variables live on the edges of oriented leveled shaped triangulations.

2013-05-18abs ↗pdf ↗

For data living in a manifold MRmM\subseteq \mathbb{R}^m and a point pMp\in M we consider a statistic Uk,nU_{k,n} which estimates the variance of the angle between pairs of vectors XipX_i-p and XjpX_j-p, for data points XiX_i, XjX_j, near pp, and evaluate this statistic as a tool for estimation of the intrinsic dimension o…

2018-05-04abs ↗pdf ↗