Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,878 papers · 148 categories

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137274410547 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for live experiment

Backtests of structured strategies lose much of their predictive power in live trading.

problem Uncertainty in how marketed backtests predict live performance of structured strategies.
method Analysis of 1,726 structured strategies from ten global institutions.
result Raw backtests have limited portability into live trading and deteriorate sharply.

BiCB combines traffic prediction and bidding optimization for live advertising.

problem Real-time bidding in live advertising with unknown future traffic.
method Binary Constrained Bidding (BiCB) that merges mathematical analysis and statistical traffic estimation.
result BiCB achieves good approximation to optimal bidding results with low complexity.

Technical report predicts eating and food purchasing behaviors of free-living individuals.

problem Predicting eating and food purchasing behaviors of free-living individuals.
method Applied multiple machine learning algorithms (Logistic Regression, RBF-SVM, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting) to minute-level features from sensors and environmental context.
result Gradient Boosting model had the highest mean accuracy score (0.7289) for predicting eating events before 0 to 4 minutes.

A new policy minimizes loss in high-volume, short-lived multi-armed bandit problems.

problem Minimizing loss in high-volume, short-lived multi-armed bandit problems.
method Proposed a Bayesian policy to minimize loss over a large class of prior distributions.
result Our policy outperforms existing methods by 4.32% in total duration and 7.48% in total number of click-throughs.

Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.

problem Long-term impacts of global economic changes on living conditions.
method Machine learning framework combining socio-economic factors.
result Developed a practical tool for policymakers to identify areas needing improvement.

AI-Trader benchmarks LLMs in live financial markets, revealing poor trading performance.

problem Challenges in real-time financial decision-making by autonomous agents.
method Fully automated, live evaluation benchmark with minimal human intervention.
result General intelligence does not translate to effective trading, highlighting limitations.

Model optimal growth strategy in a market with short-lived assets.

problem Investment market with short-lived assets and endogenous prices.
method Formulate stochastic equation for wealth processes and prove existence of optimal strategy.
result Existence of a submartingale strategy ensuring investor's wealth growth asymptotically.

Co-TSFA improves time series forecasting by distinguishing between short-lived and persistent anomalies.

problem Standard forecasting models fail to distinguish between short-lived and persistent anomalies, leading to overreaction or underreaction.
method Co-TSFA learns to ignore forecast-irrelevant anomalies and respond to forecast-relevant ones through input-only and input-output augmentations and a latent-output alignment loss.
result Co-TSFA improves performance under anomalous conditions while maintaining accuracy on normal data.

Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.

problem Understanding consumer demand during livestreaming lifecycle.
method Examined consumer demand for live events and recorded versions using data from a livestreaming platform.
result Demand is more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.

Proposes GDTW for aligning time series on different, incomparable spaces.

problem Dynamic time warping requires comparable spaces, but time series can live on different, incomparable spaces.
method Gromov dynamic time warping (GDTW) considers intra-relational geometry to avoid comparability requirements.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of GDTW in aligning, combining, and comparing time series on incomparable spaces.

YC Bench forecasts startup success in Y Combinator batches with a short-term metric.

problem Difficult forecasting of startup success due to sparse meaningful outcomes and slow evaluation cycles.
method Developed a live benchmark using publicly available traction signals and web visibility metrics.
result Revealed 6 out of 11 top performers at YC Demo Day with a simple proxy for prior brand recognition.

Human activity recognition using smart home sensors is one of the bases of ubiquitous computing in smart environments and a topic undergoing intense research in the field of ambient assisted living. The increasingly large amount of data sets calls for machine learning methods. In this paper, we introduce a deep learnin…

2018-04-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Complex models are commonly used in predictive modeling. In this paper we present R packages that can be used to explain predictions from complex black box models and attribute parts of these predictions to input features. We introduce two new approaches and corresponding packages for such attribution, namely live and …

2018-04-05abs ↗pdf ↗

DAD learns to design experiments quickly, outperforming traditional methods.

problem Real-time decision-making in sequential Bayesian experimental design.
method Amortized design network trained with contrastive information bounds.
result DAD outperforms alternative strategies on various problems.

This paper discusses the financial risks faced by the UK Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and what, if anything, it can do about them. It draws lessons from the regulatory regimes under which other financial institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, operate and asks why pension funds are treated differently. It…

2011-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements with 78% accuracy.

problem Predicting price formation in cryptocurrency markets with high volatility and illiquidity.
method Applied deep learning to predict mid-price changes on live tick-level cryptocurrency data.
result Achieved 78% accuracy in predicting mid-price movement of Bitcoin vs USD.

Neural networks have shown great potential in many applications like speech recognition, drug discovery, image classification, and object detection. Neural network models are inspired by biological neural networks, but they are optimized to perform machine learning tasks on digital computers. The proposed work explores…

2017-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

PolyBench benchmarks LLMs on real market data, revealing significant performance gaps.

problem Benchmarking LLMs for real-world event prediction from live market signals.
method Multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket, evaluating 7 LLMs under identical market states.
result Only two models achieve positive financial returns, highlighting the gap between fluency and probabilistic reasoning.

Tribuo integrates ML models with provenance in Java.

problem Tracking and ensuring ML models behave appropriately as they grow in number and complexity.
method Integrates model training, inference, type-safety, runtime checking, and automatic provenance recording into a single Java library.
result Automatic recording of full processing pipeline and training details inside the model object.

A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze p…

2013-10-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a curvature-corrected tangent space method for manifold-valued data.

problem Generalizing real-valued data approximation to manifold-valued data.
method Systematic approach to developing global-geometry aware, computationally feasible approximation schemes.
result Proposes CC-tHOSVD for low-rank approximation of manifold-valued data.

A nonparametric Bayesian sparse graph linear dynamical system (SGLDS) is proposed to model sequentially observed multivariate data. SGLDS uses the Bernoulli-Poisson link together with a gamma process to generate an infinite dimensional sparse random graph to model state transitions. Depending on the sparsity pattern of…

2018-02-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Two-cycle GEILA equilibria are OLG equilibria and vice versa, with applications to indeterminacy and bubbles.

problem Relationship between GEILA and OLG models.
method Proof of equilibrium equivalence and application to indeterminacy and bubbles.
result GEILA and OLG models are equivalent under certain conditions.