Backtests of structured strategies lose much of their predictive power in live trading.
problem Uncertainty in how marketed backtests predict live performance of structured strategies.
method Analysis of 1,726 structured strategies from ten global institutions.
result Raw backtests have limited portability into live trading and deteriorate sharply.
AI-Trader benchmarks LLMs in live financial markets, revealing poor trading performance.
problem Challenges in real-time financial decision-making by autonomous agents.
method Fully automated, live evaluation benchmark with minimal human intervention.
result General intelligence does not translate to effective trading, highlighting limitations.
YC Bench forecasts startup success in Y Combinator batches with a short-term metric.
problem Difficult forecasting of startup success due to sparse meaningful outcomes and slow evaluation cycles.
method Developed a live benchmark using publicly available traction signals and web visibility metrics.
result Revealed 6 out of 11 top performers at YC Demo Day with a simple proxy for prior brand recognition.
LiveTradeBench evaluates LLMs in live trading environments.
problem Static benchmarks fail to assess real-world trading ability.
method Live data streaming, portfolio management abstraction, multi-market evaluation.
result LLMs show distinct portfolio styles and adapt to live signals.
PolyBench benchmarks LLMs on real market data, revealing significant performance gaps.
problem Benchmarking LLMs for real-world event prediction from live market signals.
method Multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket, evaluating 7 LLMs under identical market states.
result Only two models achieve positive financial returns, highlighting the gap between fluency and probabilistic reasoning.
Neural networks have shown great potential in many applications like speech recognition, drug discovery, image classification, and object detection. Neural network models are inspired by biological neural networks, but they are optimized to perform machine learning tasks on digital computers. The proposed work explores…
PriceSeer benchmarks LLMs in real-time stock prediction.
problem Evaluating LLMs' stock prediction accuracy and robustness.
method Real-time benchmark with 110 U.S. stocks, internal and external information expansion.
result LLMs perform suboptimally in long-term predictions due to fake news and specific industries.
ZeroSCROLLS benchmarks zero-shot natural language understanding over long texts.
problem Evaluate natural language understanding models over long texts without training data.
method Adapt six tasks from SCROLLS benchmark and add four new datasets, including novel aggregation tasks.
result Claude outperforms ChatGPT, and GPT-4 achieves highest average score.
SCROLLS benchmarks long text NLP tasks, improving existing models.
problem Short NLP benchmarks ignore long texts; SCROLLS addresses this.
method Handpicked long-text datasets for summarization, QA, and inference tasks.
result Improvement potential on SCROLLS tasks, as indicated by initial baselines.
Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.
problem Long-term impacts of global economic changes on living conditions.
method Machine learning framework combining socio-economic factors.
result Developed a practical tool for policymakers to identify areas needing improvement.
Living review of ML for particle physics, updated frequently.
problem Keeping up with rapid advancements in ML for particle physics.
method Creating a living document to list and update citations of ML applications.
result Provides a comprehensive list of ML citations for particle physics.
We propose a method for learning embeddings for few-shot learning that is suitable for use with any number of ways and any number of shots (shot-free). Rather than fixing the class prototypes to be the Euclidean average of sample embeddings, we allow them to live in a higher-dimensional space (embedded class models) an…
Co-TSFA improves time series forecasting by distinguishing between short-lived and persistent anomalies.
problem Standard forecasting models fail to distinguish between short-lived and persistent anomalies, leading to overreaction or underreaction.
method Co-TSFA learns to ignore forecast-irrelevant anomalies and respond to forecast-relevant ones through input-only and input-output augmentations and a latent-output alignment loss.
result Co-TSFA improves performance under anomalous conditions while maintaining accuracy on normal data.
RL Unplugged benchmarks offline RL methods across diverse domains.
problem Evaluate offline reinforcement learning methods without online data collection.
method Proposes a benchmark suite with diverse datasets and detailed evaluation protocols.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of offline RL methods across various domains.
BiCB combines traffic prediction and bidding optimization for live advertising.
problem Real-time bidding in live advertising with unknown future traffic.
method Binary Constrained Bidding (BiCB) that merges mathematical analysis and statistical traffic estimation.
result BiCB achieves good approximation to optimal bidding results with low complexity.
Model optimal growth strategy in a market with short-lived assets.
problem Investment market with short-lived assets and endogenous prices.
method Formulate stochastic equation for wealth processes and prove existence of optimal strategy.
result Existence of a submartingale strategy ensuring investor's wealth growth asymptotically.
Merlion is a machine learning library for time series tasks.
problem Anomaly detection and forecasting on time series data.
method Unified interface for models, pre/post-processing layers, AutoML, model ensembling, live deployment simulation.
result Benchmark numbers across different models and ensembles.
CogScale benchmarks AI architectures for sequential processing.
problem Evaluating AI architectures' ability to process sequential information efficiently.
method 14 scalable synthetic tasks designed to isolate cognitive and memory abilities at different scales.
result Attention mechanisms and modern state-space models consistently maintain high performance as task difficulty scales.
Multi-StyleGAN simulates live cell microscopy imagery.
problem Costly and complex live cell experiments.
method Generative adversarial network (GAN) synthesizing multi-domain time-lapse images.
result Captures biophysical factors and time dependencies in cell imagery.
Predict human lives using sequences of life events.
problem Predicting human life outcomes based on detailed event sequences.
method Adapting natural language processing techniques to analyze life events.
result Models predict diverse outcomes with high accuracy, outperforming state-of-the-art models.
RED-2400 is a public benchmark of trading events from a Solana exchange, labeled by algorithmic rejection.
problem Analyzing algorithmically-rejected trading events for insights into market dynamics.
method Public dataset of 6,660 algorithmically-rejected trading events, linked to post-rejection price and liquidity trajectories.
result First window of a planned series of datasets extending the time horizon and enabling regime-stratified analysis.
This study benchmarks transcriptomics models for perturbation analysis, finding scVI and PCA superior.
problem Limited evaluation of transcriptomics foundation models for perturbation analysis.
method Developed a novel evaluation framework using diverse public datasets from different sequencing techniques and cell lines.
result scVI and PCA identified as superior models for understanding biological perturbations.
We tested in a live setting the use of active learning for selecting text sentences for human annotations used in training a Thai segmentation machine learning model. In our study, two concurrent annotated samples were constructed, one through random sampling of sentences from a text corpus, and the other through model…
Foresight Arena benchmarks AI forecasting on real-world markets, isolating predictive edge.
problem Evaluating AI forecasting ability in real-world markets is challenging due to overfitting, centralized trust, and conflated metrics.
method Permissionless, on-chain benchmark using probabilistic forecasts, commit-reveal protocol, and smart contracts.
result Demonstrates the need for 350 predictions to reliably distinguish agents of different skill levels.
Computers are increasingly used to make decisions that have significant impact in people's lives. Often, these predictions can affect different population subgroups disproportionately. As a result, the issue of fairness has received much recent interest, and a number of fairness-enhanced classifiers and predictors have…
Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
problem Understanding consumer demand during livestreaming lifecycle.
method Examined consumer demand for live events and recorded versions using data from a livestreaming platform.
result Demand is more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
Research optimizes C++ patterns for HFT, reducing latency and improving profitability.
problem Optimizing latency-critical code for high-frequency trading systems.
method Creation of a Low-Latency Programming Repository, optimisation of trading strategy, implementation of Disruptor pattern.
result Significant performance improvements in speed and profitability.
Proposes GDTW for aligning time series on different, incomparable spaces.
problem Dynamic time warping requires comparable spaces, but time series can live on different, incomparable spaces.
method Gromov dynamic time warping (GDTW) considers intra-relational geometry to avoid comparability requirements.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of GDTW in aligning, combining, and comparing time series on incomparable spaces.
High levels of air pollution may seriously affect people's living environment and even endanger their lives. In order to reduce air pollution concentrations, and warn the public before the occurrence of hazardous air pollutants, it is urgent to design an accurate and reliable air pollutant forecasting model. However, m…
Complex models are commonly used in predictive modeling. In this paper we present R packages that can be used to explain predictions from complex black box models and attribute parts of these predictions to input features. We introduce two new approaches and corresponding packages for such attribution, namely live and …
Future buildings will offer new convenience, comfort, and efficiency possibilities to their residents. Changes will occur to the way people live as technology involves into people's lives and information processing is fully integrated into their daily living activities and objects. The future expectation of smart build…
Is AdamW effective under heavy-tailed noise?
problem Stochastic gradient noise in LLM pretraining is typically heavy-tailed.
method Formulate as an open problem, prove a positive weighted-metric benchmark, and give a corridor lower-bound mechanism.
result No rigorous convergence theory for AdamW established in heavy-tailed regime.
The emergence of an ageing population is a significant public health concern. This has led to an increase in the number of people living with progressive neurodegenerative disorders like dementia. Consequently, the strain this is places on health and social care services means providing 24-hour monitoring is not sustai…
First I will explain my motivation to introduce the δ-invariants for Riemannian manifolds. I will also recall the notions of ideal immersions and best ways of living. Then I will present a few of the many applications of δ-invariants to several areas in mathematics. Finally, I will present two optimal inequalities …
Improved action recognition in live videos with hybrid FR-DL method.
problem High computational costs and lack of temporal information in conventional action recognition.
method Automated selection of representative frames, feature extraction, background subtraction, HOG, deep neural network, LSTM, Softmax-KNN classifier.
result Significant improvement in accuracy and speed compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements with 78% accuracy.
problem Predicting price formation in cryptocurrency markets with high volatility and illiquidity.
method Applied deep learning to predict mid-price changes on live tick-level cryptocurrency data.
result Achieved 78% accuracy in predicting mid-price movement of Bitcoin vs USD.
The logarithmic Riemann surface Sigma_{log} is a classical holomorphic 1-manifold. It lives into R^4 and induces a covering space of C - 0 defined by exp. This paper suggests a geometric construction of it, derived as the limit of a sequence of vector fields extending exp suitably to embeddings of C into R^3, which tur…
A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze p…
Paper optimizes urban navigation with deep learning models.
problem Real-time urban pathfinding challenges.
method Enhanced A* algorithm and neural network model.
result Neural network model outperforms traditional methods, reducing travel times by up to 40%.
Smart beta, also known as strategic beta or factor investing, is the idea of selecting an investment portfolio in a simple rule-based manner that systematically captures market inefficiencies, thereby enhancing risk-adjusted returns above capitalization-weighted benchmarks. We explore the idea of applying a smart strat…
We address the problem of defining a network graph on a large collection of classes. Each class is comprised of a collection of data points, sampled in a non i.i.d. way, from some unknown underlying distribution. The application we consider in this paper is a large scale high dimensional survey of people living in the …
We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a probabilistic encoder that maps from high-dimensional configuration space to a small-siz…
Framework insures AI actions with reserve capital, preventing loss.
problem Ensuring safety and accountability for AI actions with varying side effects.
method Developed Actuarial Action Interface (AAI) and Authority Frontier to price and gate AI actions.
result Found common refusal and release patterns across domains, with varying required reserve capital.
We introduce a new numerical invariant of knots and links from the descending diagrams. It is considered to live between the unknotting number and the bridge number.
New sEMG dataset for ADL activities recognized with high accuracy.
problem Developing a robust dataset for sEMG-based ADL activity recognition.
method Acquired sEMG data from 25 subjects performing 22 ADL activities. Used 4 classifiers with various feature sets.
result SVM classifier achieved 83.21% accuracy on 5 FAABOS categories.
CLQT benchmarks LLM portfolio managers by evaluating their decision-making process, not just returns.
problem Most benchmarks rank LLMs by returns, ignoring their decision-making process and potential for look-ahead leakage.
method CLQT reframes evaluation as diagnosis, using a closed-loop, cost-aware, strategy-consistent environment with a five-stage cycle.
result CLQT provides a durable map of agent competencies and limitations, separating outcome from process.
Persistence diagrams (PDs) play a key role in topological data analysis (TDA), in which they are routinely used to describe topological properties of complicated shapes. PDs enjoy strong stability properties and have proven their utility in various learning contexts. They do not, however, live in a space naturally endo…
In this paper, we review pricing of variable annuity living and death guarantees offered to retail investors in many countries. Investors purchase these products to take advantage of market growth and protect savings. We present pricing of these products via an optimal stochastic control framework, and review the exist…