A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Characterizes the sample complexity of list regression tasks.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
Research on predicting with lists of labels, characterizing learnability and providing algorithms.
We aim to produce predictive models that are not only accurate, but are also interpretable to human experts. Our models are decision lists, which consist of a series of if...then... statements (e.g., if high blood pressure, then stroke) that discretize a high-dimensional, multivariate feature space into a series of sim…
This work characterizes when a hypothesis class can be k-list learned.
Negative screening is one method to avoid interactions with inappropriate entities. For example, financial institutions keep investment exclusion lists of inappropriate firms that have environmental, social, and government (ESG) problems. They create their investment exclusion lists by gathering information from variou…
Background: Many authors have described MELD as a predictor of short-term mortality in the liver transplantation waiting list. However MELD score accuracy to predict long term mortality has not been statistically evaluated. Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the MELD score as well as other variables as a pr…
DanSmp predicts stock movement using a hybrid-relational MKG and dual attention networks.
We present the design and implementation of a custom discrete optimization technique for building rule lists over a categorical feature space. Our algorithm produces rule lists with optimal training performance, according to the regularized empirical risk, with a certificate of optimality. By leveraging algorithmic bou…
Paper tackles MLR prediction error without assuming realizable models.
New Sauer inequality improves multiclass hypothesis class bounds.
Predictive modeling applications increasingly use data representing people's behavior, opinions, and interactions. Fine-grained behavior data often has different structure from traditional data, being very high-dimensional and sparse. Models built from these data are quite difficult to interpret, since they contain man…
This paper analyzes Airbnb listings in the city of San Francisco to better understand how different attributes such as bedrooms, location, house type amongst others can be used to accurately predict the price of a new listing that optimal in terms of the host's profitability yet affordable to their guests. This model i…
Many prediction domains, such as ad placement, recommendation, trajectory prediction, and document summarization, require predicting a set or list of options. Such lists are often evaluated using submodular reward functions that measure both quality and diversity. We propose a simple, efficient, and provably near-optim…
Online purchase decisions in organizations can go through a complex journey with multiple agents involved in the decision making process. Depending on the product being purchased, and the organizational structure, the process may involve employees who first conduct market research, and then influence decision makers wh…
Interpretable classifiers have recently witnessed an increase in attention from the data mining community because they are inherently easier to understand and explain than their more complex counterparts. Examples of interpretable classification models include decision trees, rule sets, and rule lists. Learning such mo…
New algorithm predicts ranked stock lists for long-short portfolios.
FUJI scores similarity of ranked lists more robustly.
The conventional solution to the recommendation problem greedily ranks individual document candidates by prediction scores. However, this method fails to optimize the slate as a whole, and hence, often struggles to capture biases caused by the page layout and document interdepedencies. The slate recommendation problem …
Temporal Pattern Mining (TPM) is the problem of mining predictive complex temporal patterns from multivariate time series in a supervised setting. We develop a new method called the Fast Temporal Pattern Mining with Extended Vertical Lists. This method utilizes an extension of the Apriori property which requires a more…
Game-theoretic models predict asset prices in financial markets.
New statistical models for predicting ranked preferences from partial orders.
S-SIRUS explains RF for spatial data, improving accuracy and interpretability.
Predicting drug-target interactions (DTI) is an essential part of the drug discovery process, which is an expensive process in terms of time and cost. Therefore, reducing DTI cost could lead to reduced healthcare costs for a patient. In addition, a precisely learned molecule representation in a DTI model could contribu…
The outcome of a functional genomics pipeline is usually a partial list of genomic features, ranked by their relevance in modelling biological phenotype in terms of a classification or regression model. Due to resampling protocols or just within a meta-analysis comparison, instead of one list it is often the case that …
Many latent (factorized) models have been proposed for recommendation tasks like collaborative filtering and for ranking tasks like document or image retrieval and annotation. Common to all those methods is that during inference the items are scored independently by their similarity to the query in the latent embedding…
Unified review of Conformal Prediction theory and applications.
Paper tackles high-accuracy list-decodable learning for mean estimation.
Investigates principles of generalization in list learning, refutes sample compression conjecture.
The real estate market is exposed to many fluctuations in prices because of existing correlations with many variables, some of which cannot be controlled or might even be unknown. Housing prices can increase rapidly (or in some cases, also drop very fast), yet the numerous listings available online where houses are sol…
The paper examines the Chinese market reaction to the ADR issue by comparing returns and their stochastic variances of the Chinese firms cross-listed in the U.S. stock market. First, It was implemented capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine expected returns A and N shares. The CAPM provided with a methodology …
New method combines score lists using joint CDFs, improving computation.
Study on list learning with noisy data, showing limits and some learnable cases.
New algorithms for privately learning decision lists and halfspaces.
AdaptiveNet tackles disease progression prediction in rheumatoid arthritis using deep neural networks.
New RL algorithm ensures stable, replicable policies.
In a stock market, the price fluctuations are interactive, that is, one listed company can influence others. In this paper, we seek to study the influence relationships among listed companies by constructing a directed network on the basis of Chinese stock market. This influence network shows distinct topological prope…
Polynomial-time algorithm for list-decodable linear regression with batches.
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
In this paper we introduce a novel family of decision lists consisting of highly interpretable models which can be learned efficiently in a greedy manner. The defining property is that all rules are oriented in the same direction. Particular examples of this family are decision lists with monotonically decreasing (or i…
Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.
Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.
Record companies invest billions of dollars in new talent around the globe each year. Gaining insight into what actually makes a hit song would provide tremendous benefits for the music industry. In this research we tackle this question by focussing on the dance hit song classification problem. A database of dance hit …
New algorithm recovers mixture means even with many outliers.
The study predicts bankruptcy in Indian companies using financial ratios.
To identify and classify toxic online commentary, the modern tools of data science transform raw text into key features from which either thresholding or learning algorithms can make predictions for monitoring offensive conversations. We systematically evaluate 62 classifiers representing 19 major algorithmic families …
Negative user preference is an important context that is not sufficiently utilized by many existing recommender systems. This context is especially useful in scenarios where the cost of negative items is high for the users. In this work, we describe a new recommender algorithm that explicitly models negative user prefe…
DeepRacing uses neural networks to predict trajectories for autonomous racing in video games.