A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study shows how crypto asset liquidity is affected by wash trading and proposes treatment to reduce liquidity diffusion.
New framework detects crypto wash trading using liquidity measures.
Predicting the intraday stock jumps is a significant but challenging problem in finance. Due to the instantaneity and imperceptibility characteristics of intraday stock jumps, relevant studies on their predictability remain limited. This paper proposes a data-driven approach to predict intraday stock jumps using the in…
A limit order book provides information on available limit order prices and their volumes. Based on these quantities, we give an empirical result on the relationship between the bid-ask liquidity balance and trade sign and we show that liquidity balance on best bid/best ask is quite informative for predicting the futur…
Improved ARMA-GARCH model for illiquid assets like cryptocurrencies.
Revisits Jarrow & Turnbull model for credit and liquidity risk.
In order to understand the origin of stock price jumps, we cross-correlate high-frequency time series of stock returns with different news feeds. We find that neither idiosyncratic news nor market wide news can explain the frequency and amplitude of price jumps. We find that the volatility patterns around jumps and aro…
Develops a new model to better estimate cryptocurrency and stock volatility.
Study optimal liquidation with multiple regimes using BSDEs with singular terminal values.
Study optimizes portfolio liquidation strategies with complex market impacts.
We study the optimal liquidation problem in a market model where the bid price follows a geometric pure jump process whose local characteristics are driven by an unobservable finite-state Markov chain and by the liquidation rate. This model is consistent with stylized facts of high frequency data such as the discrete n…
Paper develops models for better HFT and algorithmic trading.
New method detects market liquidity changes using order book data.
We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 minutes) large price fluctuations are connected to the failure of the subtle mechanism of compensation between the flows of …
Extends option pricing framework without risk-free asset using Levy jumps.
New models optimize quotes for automated market makers considering various price dynamics and demand variability.
One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading of the underlying asset does not affect the price of that asset. This assumption can be fulfilled only in perfectly liquid markets. Since most markets are illquid, this assumption might be too restrictive. Thus, taki…
Study on HFTs' interactions with a large trader using mean field game theory.
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and how prices move, the joint fluctuations of order flow and liquidity - and the way…
We study a problem of optimal investment/consumption over an infinite horizon in a market consisting of a liquid and an illiquid asset. The liquid asset is observed and can be traded continuously, while the illiquid one can only be traded and observed at discrete random times corresponding to the jumps of a Poisson pro…
In this paper, we study the optimal control problem for a company whose surplus process evolves as an upward jump diffusion with random return on investment. Three types of practical optimization problems faced by a company that can control its liquid reserves by paying dividends and injecting capital. In the first pro…
Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the …
Study the hedging of cryptocurrency options in a volatile market.
Develops a new framework for perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
This work models overnight rates with jumps and discontinuities, extending classical short-rate models.
Develops a statistical model for SOFR term structure in incomplete markets.
This paper models short rates with jumps using PDEs.
The existing literature provides evidence that limit order book data can be used to predict short-term price movements in stock markets. This paper proposes a new neural network architecture for predicting return jump arrivals in equity markets with high-frequency limit order book data. This new architecture, based on …
DeFi lending protocols faced challenges during Ethereum's merge, but avoided major liquidations.
Study evaluates cryptocurrency option pricing models, finds Kou and Bates models perform best.
We propose a model for the dynamics of a limit order book in a liquid market where buy and sell orders are submitted at high frequency. We derive a functional central limit theorem for the joint dynamics of the bid and ask queues and show that, when the frequency of order arrivals is large, the intraday dynamics of the…
This paper optimizes perpetual contract liquidity by accounting for funding rates.
This paper optimizes liquidity provision in automated market makers using auction theory.
We study a problem of optimal investment/consumption over an infinite horizon in a market consisting of two possibly correlated assets: one liquid and one illiquid. The liquid asset is observed and can be traded continuously, while the illiquid one can be traded only at discrete random times corresponding to the jumps …
We consider an illiquid financial market with different regimes modeled by a continuous-time finite-state Markov chain. The investor can trade a stock only at the discrete arrival times of a Cox process with intensity depending on the market regime. Moreover, the risky asset price is subject to liquidity shocks, which …
Haircutting non-cash collateral has become a key element of the post-crisis reform of the shadow banking system and OTC derivatives markets. This article develops a parametric haircut model by expanding haircut definitions beyond the traditional value-at-risk measure and employing a double-exponential jump-diffusion mo…
A third-order approximation for close-to-the-money European option prices under an infinite-variation CGMY Lévy model is derived, and is then extended to a model with an additional independent Brownian component. The asymptotic regime considered, in which the strike is made to converge to the spot stock price as the ma…
Study of financial models using PIDEs with and without market liquidity.
Optimizes liquidity provision intervals for profitable AMM participation.
The study introduces new liquidity measures and models for assets with extreme liquidity.
A liquidity measure based on consideration and price range is proposed. Initially defined for daily data, Liquidity Index (LIX) can also be estimated via intraday data by using a time scaling mechanism. The link between LIX and the liquidity measure based on weighted average bid-ask spread is established. Using this li…
Research proposes a model to estimate transaction costs and assess asset liquidity risk.
Optimizes liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges with utility indifference market makers.
Third part of a study on liquidity risk in asset management, focusing on managing the asset-liability liquidity risk.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on a reference entity may be traded in multiple currencies, in that protection upon default may be offered either in the domestic currency where the entity resides, or in a more liquid and global foreign currency. In this situation currency fluctuations clearly introduce a source of risk on C…
News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double exponential jump-diffusion model is proposed. Theorems stated in the paper enable est…
We quantify how co-jumps impact correlations in currency markets. To disentangle the continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, and study the influence of co-jumps on correlations, we propose a new wavelet-based estimator. The proposed estimation framework is able to localize the co-jumps very precisely th…
Optimal early liquidation strategy reduces financial losses during crises.